*Good morning/afternoon everyone!* The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130. *The MAIN THEMES I see today are* +EUR +CHF -CAD -JPY *Trading Biases* +EUR, +CHF, +GBP, -CAD, -JPY mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD *Today’s Initial Trades* Here’s the summary – 1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912 2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275 3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559 4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +GBP,
-CAD, -JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275
3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Today’s Trades 10.12.2018 NZDJPY, EURNZD, NZDCAD, EURUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After selling off for most of this week, the U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Canadian dollar, but that could also change as the morning progresses. The recovery in the greenback is directly tied to the recovery in stocks and the increase in Treasury yields. Asian and European equities rebounded overnight and as of right now, Dow futures are pointing to a strong triple digit open. Market appetite will be the main focus today and not US data because the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is the only major U.S. economic report that is scheduled for release. Last night’s stronger Chinese trade numbers failed to help AUD and NZD which are giving up their gains because the increase was driven entirely by higher exports. Import growth slowed which is negative for Chinese suppliers like Australia and New Zealand. NZD is particularly vulnerable after New Zealand’s Finance Minister endorsed by the slide in NZD by saying he’s “not uncomfortable with the currency level.” The euro has been unable to break 1.16 and is now trading lower despite stronger Eurozone industrial production. USD/CAD wants to break 1.30 and with oil prices rising, that could happen this morning. The strongest currency pair is USD/JPY, which could benefit from a recovery in stocks and GBP is the riskiest as there are reports that Prime Minister May won’t agree to being trapped in a customs union.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-NZD
-AUD
-EUR
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-NZD, -AUD, -EUR
mildly -GBP, -CHF, +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at 73.13, Stop at 73.41, Target 72.85
2. Buy EURNZD at 1.7783, Stop at 1.7755, Target 1.7803
3. Sell NZDCAD at .8475, Stop at .8503, Target .8447
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1583, Stop at 1.1611, Target 1.1554

Today’s Trades 08.28.2018 EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURCAD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is heading in the NY trading session lower against most of the major currencies. The only currency that is underperforming the greenback is the Japanese Yen. Its weakness along with the resilience of USD/JPY tells us that risk appetite remains strong. US stocks climbed to record highs yesterday and stock futures are pointing to positive open. The Swiss Franc is the best performer but the only reason why the euro isn’t matching the Franc’s rise is because it
took some time for the currency to break 1.17. The euro’s rally is also supported by the pullback in Italian yields and comments from Germany’s foreign minister who said he expects the US to revoke tariff threats. The next stop should be the 100-day SMA near 1.1750. While sterling could also move higher on US dollar weakness, the latest Brexit headlines suggest that negotiations aren’t going as well as the UK hopes. Prime Minister May said a no deal Brexit is not the end the world and the UK’s Fox said they made a fair and reasonable offer to the EU. They also said hard Brexit is not off the table. These are not the type of headlines we want to see out of the talks -- UK leaders should be touting progress and the nearing of a deal rather than alternative options. The big focus today are the trade talks between US and Canada. Foreign minister Freeland will be in Washington to resume negotiations and its not clear if we’ll know how the talks went today or tomorrow. The Canadian dollar is trading firmly ahead of the meeting and appears poised for a move down to 1.29. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also extended their gains. US trade and consumer confidence numbers will be released during the NY session.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
+NZD
+GBP
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+EUR, +CAD, +CHF, +NZD, +GBP
mildly +AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.1703, stop at 1.1675 Target 1.1731
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.2899, Stop at 1.2871, Target 1.2927
3. Sell AUDCHF at .7182, Stop at .7210, Target .7154
4. Sell EURCAD at 1.5137, Stop at 1.5165, Target 1.5109

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.21.2018 EURUSD, AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Although the greenback was hit hard in the past 24 hours by President Trump’s criticism of the Fed, they will not affect monetary policy. But it was the perfect excuse for USD bulls to abandon their positions. In the Asia session overnight, the selling gained momentum after EUR/USD broke through 1.15 -- stops were triggered and EUR/USD rallied quickly, taking all of the major currencies higher along with it. However the rally stopped right at the 20-day SMA for EUR/USD and its not clear if the pair will have the momentum to extend beyond that level. The best performing currency this morning is the New Zealand dollar but NZD is vulnerable to losses if dairy prices fail to rise at today’s auction. AUD and CAD are also higher with the loonie likely to gain traction in the North American session for a potential test of 1.30. Last night’s RBA minutes had very little impact on AUD. Brexit talks are underway this morning so GBP could be vulnerable to headline risk but right now it looks like it wants to make a run to 1.2875. Stocks are up, yields are up and oil prices are moving higher -- all signs of a risk on rally.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+AUD
+CAD
+GBP
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-JPY
+AUD, +CAD +GBP, +EUR
mildly +NZD, +CHF
neutral USD but (+USDJPY)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDJPY at 81.18, stop at 80.90, Target 81.46
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1524, Stop at 1.1496, Target 1.1552
3. Buy CADJPY at 84.68, Stop at 84.40, Target 84.96
4. Sell EURGBP at .8978, stop at .9006, Target .8950

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.07.2018 EURUSD, USDJPY, EURCAD, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning against the U.S. dollar on the back of gains in Chinese equities. Yields are up, stocks are up and oil is moving higher. After last week’s declines, we’re seeing a turn around on Tuesday. The Australian dollar is leading the gains thanks to a neutral bias of the RBA who sees inflation lower this year but stronger next year. Eurozone data was mixed but investors interpreted the data as positive for the currency and has sent the pair towards 1.16. Germany’s trade surplus increased but exports were flat and industrial production declined. Sterling is up thanks to higher house prices. With no U.S. economic reports on today’s calendar, traders should keep an eye on equities and Treasuries for direction. The trend of dollar weakness that we saw in Europe should carry over to North American trade.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF
neutral GBP, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDJPY at 111.20, Stop at 111.48, Target 110.92
2. Buy AUDJPY at 82.66, Stop at 82.38, Target .82.94
3. Long EURCAD at 1.5039, Stop at 1.5011, Target 1.5067
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1590, Stop at 1.1562, Target 1.1618

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.31.2018 EURUSD, USDJPY, NZDCHF, EURAUD

Weekly Calendar Calls

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The Japanese Yen is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning after the Bank of Japan failed to raise interest rates. Although the BoJ said they would allow long term yields to “move upward and downward depending on economic and price developments,” they intend to keep rates near zero. They lowered their inflation forecast and pledged to keep extraordinary policies in place for an “extended period of time,” widening the gap between Fed, BoE and ECB policies. The Yen is the worst performer and the strength that we are seeing in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY should continue in the North American session. Euro in particular in performing well thanks to stronger Eurozone inflation and German retail sales data that allowed investors to shrug off weaker EZ GDP. Sterling is also up but GBP/USD is struggling to break above the 20-day SMA near 1.3160. AUD is outperforming NZD as the larger increase in AU building contrasts with the drop in NZ business confidence. The US and Canadian dollars are in play this morning with US personal income, spending, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence numbers scheduled for release alongside CAD GDP. The greenback is rising despite a healthy drop in Treasury yields, but the weakness may be limited to pairs like EUR/USD as BoJ could keeps USD/JPY bid.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-JPY
-NZD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF
-JPY, -NZD, -AUD
-USD but +USDJPY
mildly +CAD, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.1726 , Stop at 1.1699, Target 1.1755
2. Buy EURAUD at 1.5908, Stop at 1.5780, Target 1.5836
3. Sell NZDCHF at .6733, Stop at .6761, Target .6705
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.53, stop at 111.25, Target 111.81

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.17.2018 EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDCHF, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It will be a big day in the FX market with Fed Chair Jay Powell testifying before Congress at 10AM NY time. From his prepared remarks we know that he’s optimistic about the U.S. economy but worried about trade tensions. The U.S. dollar is holding strong against the Yen ahead of the release and flat against other major currencies with the exception of the New Zealand dollar, which is up 0.63%. NZD soared on the back of stronger inflation data, taking out stops in the process. UK labor data was in line with expectations but slightly weaker than the previous month. Global bond yields are lower this morning, oil is below $70 a barrel and stocks are flat. The recent decline in oil leads us to believe that the loonie is due for a correction. We don’t expect much in the way of moves ahead of Powell’s speech but there could be some relative value plays.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-AUD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR. +CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -CAD
Neutral GBP, USD, JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.3145, Stop at 1.3117, Target 1.3173
2. Sell AUDCHF at .7362, Stop at .7390, Target .7334
3. Sell NZDJPY at 76.70, Stop at 76.98, Target 76.42
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1721, Stop at 1.1693, Target 1.1749

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.10.2018 EURCAD, USDJPY, EURUSD, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Investors are buying U.S. dollars this morning on the back of higher U.S. rates and weaker global data. In the Eurozone, the ZEW survey deteriorated in July, causing EUR/USD to finally retreat after last week’s strong rally. We are looking for the pair to test 1.17 but with significant support at that former breakout level, its not clear if there will be a meaningful break. USD/JPY is eyeing its May 111.39 high -- although there are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today, we believe this level will be tested with USD/JPY extending its gains to 111.50. Sterling is under pressure from ongoing political troubles in the UK and softer than expected industrial production. While USD/CAD is up, oil prices hit new highs today and that should limit the pair’s gains. We are short EUR/CAD because we still think CAD will outperform its ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada rate decision. The worst performing currencies today are the Australian and New Zealand dollars. There’s no specific catalyst for their underperformance outside of regional weakness because business confidence increased in Australia and New Zealand credit card spending picked up in June.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-NZD
+CAD
+USD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD,
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -AUD, -JPY, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURCAD at 1.1594, Stop at 1.5422, Target 1.5366
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1723, Stop at 1.1751, Target 1.1695
3. Sell NZDUSD at .6820, Stop at .6848, Target .6792
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.28, Stop at 111 Target 111.56

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.05.2018 AUDCHF, EURUSD, CADJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning on reports that the US and EU could drop their respective auto tariffs. No formal deal has been announced and there’s no mention by President Trump on twitter so it is too early to tell whether this story has real merit but it is driving risk on flows. However with the U.S. holiday bringing lower liquidity (many traders are off through the weekend) and trade war still a major issue the day before tariffs on China begin, investors remain nervous about retaliatory measures from China. Today’s ADP, Challenger and non-manufacturing ISM reports could also have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The best performing currency this morning is the euro followed by the deeply sold New Zealand dollar. All of the commodity currencies are trying to claw higher this morning. I like CAD in particular because of the continued uptick in oil along with the rise in Canadian bond yields. Sterling on the other hand saw very little benefit from BoE Governor Carney’s positive comments but that should be temporary following yesterday’s strong PMI services data. With the Fed expected to raise interest rates again this year, investors are hopeful that today’s U.S. economic reports will reaffirm the strength of the labor market.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
+AUD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +GBP, +NZD
-JPY, -CHF
+USDJPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDCHF at .7331, Stop at .7304, .7360
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1685, stop at 1.1657, Target 1.1713
3. Buy CADJPY at 81.16, Stop at 83.88, Target 84.44

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.20.2018 AUDUSD, EURUSD, CHFJPY, AUDNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While the U.S. dollar is trading higher against most of the major currencies this morning, the moves are relatively modest. Equities have stopped falling and yields are flat but after yesterday’s high anxiety trade, it is still too early to tell if this is the eye of the hurricane or the calm after the storm. The trade war is brewing strong with political risks continuing to haunt currencies. The worst performing currency today is the Swiss Franc followed by the euro and New Zealand dollar. There’s no news for Switzerland but jawboning by ECB member Nowotny who said he sees the euro falling against the dollar is hurting the currency. The EU also announced plans to impose 2.8 billion euros worth of tariffs on US imports on Friday. NZD on the other hand is pressured by softer consumer confidence and yesterday’s drop in dairy prices. GBP/USD fell to a fresh 7 month low ahead of a second Brexit vote, this time by the House of Commons on whether Parliament has a final say on the Brexit deal. The vote is expected around 18:30 GMT. While the U.S. releases existing home sales and its current account balance later this morning, the main focus will be on ECB President Draghi, Fed Chair Powell and BoJ Governor Kuroda’s comments in Sintra around 13:30 GMT. There’s also a number of OPEC headlines that could affect how the loonie trades. USD/CAD raced above 1.33 this morning and is still trying to figure out whether it has the strength to take out another big figure.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-CHF
-GBP
-NZD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -CHF, -AUD, CAD
+JPY, +USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7388, Stop at .7416, Target .7360
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1563, Stop at 1.1591, Target 1.1535
3. Buy AUDNZD at 1.0735, Stop at 1.0707, Target 1.0763
4. Sell CHFJPY at 110.32, Stop at 110.60, Target 110.04

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.06.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, NZDCAD, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning with EUR/USD above 1.1750, USD/JPY above 110 and GBP/USD above 1.34. Euro is benefitting from ECB comments relating to an earlier taper -- a view that we have emphasized after the 9 cent drop in the euro. Buyers continue to snap up USD/JPY ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Australian dollar also erased yesterday’s losses after a much stronger than expected GDP report. Risk ON is helping to take CAD and NZD higher as well and its no surprise to see the CHF and JPY underperform in a positive market environment like today. Yields are up across the board and equity futures point to a positive open. The Canadian dollar is in playwith trade balance and IVEY PMI reports scheduled for release -- the Bank of Canada’s optimism suggests that we could see firmer numbers. U.S. trade on the other hand could fall short of expectations given the strength of the dollar last month and the drop in the manufacturing ISM report.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-CHF
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD
-CHF, -JPY
mildly +GBP, -USD (but +USDJPY)
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8760, Stop at .8732, Target .8788
2. Sell NZDCAD at .9092, Stop at .9120, target .9064
3. Buy EURUSD at 1.1765, Stop at 1.1737, Target 1.1793
4. Buy EURJPY at 129.65, Stop at 129.37, Target 129.93

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USDCAD +28
EURJPY +28
EURAUD
AUDUSD

EUR/USD – Levels to Watch Post ECB

EUR/USD – Levels to Watch Post ECB

Chart Of The Day

EUR/USD -- Levels to Watch Post ECB

EUR/USD is trading sharply lower ahead of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement. Over the past 6 weeks there’s been widespread deterioration in business activity prompting investors to position for a dovish outlook. Even Germany’s Bundesbank head said recent indications for Germany in the first quarter were “not so brilliant.” However we can’t assume overwhelming dovishness from Draghi because last Friday he also said their confidence in the inflation outlook increased as the growth momentum is expected to continue. Inflation has also been on the rise so underneath the weakness there are positive developments. The question for Thursday is whether recent deterioration overshadows the uptick in inflation and positive growth momentum. We know that the ECB is not ready to raise interest rates and they certainly don’t want to see EUR/USD back above 1.24 because that would offset the improvements in prices. Yet they also want to end QE purchases this year -- so Mario Draghi has quite the balancing act to do on Thursday.

If ECB is dovish and the EUR/USD falls, the next stop should be 1.2100, which was resistance in early January and then 1.20, the 200-day SMA. EUR/USD has already broken below the 100-day SMA so the path of least resistance is lower. If they are not as dovish as investors anticipate and EURUSD finds itself back above 1.2250, the rally should extend to at least 1.2320.