Today’s Trades 10.12.2018 NZDJPY, EURNZD, NZDCAD, EURUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After selling off for most of this week, the U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Canadian dollar, but that could also change as the morning progresses. The recovery in the greenback is directly tied to the recovery in stocks and the increase in Treasury yields. Asian and European equities rebounded overnight and as of right now, Dow futures are pointing to a strong triple digit open. Market appetite will be the main focus today and not US data because the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is the only major U.S. economic report that is scheduled for release. Last night’s stronger Chinese trade numbers failed to help AUD and NZD which are giving up their gains because the increase was driven entirely by higher exports. Import growth slowed which is negative for Chinese suppliers like Australia and New Zealand. NZD is particularly vulnerable after New Zealand’s Finance Minister endorsed by the slide in NZD by saying he’s “not uncomfortable with the currency level.” The euro has been unable to break 1.16 and is now trading lower despite stronger Eurozone industrial production. USD/CAD wants to break 1.30 and with oil prices rising, that could happen this morning. The strongest currency pair is USD/JPY, which could benefit from a recovery in stocks and GBP is the riskiest as there are reports that Prime Minister May won’t agree to being trapped in a customs union.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-NZD
-AUD
-EUR
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-NZD, -AUD, -EUR
mildly -GBP, -CHF, +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at 73.13, Stop at 73.41, Target 72.85
2. Buy EURNZD at 1.7783, Stop at 1.7755, Target 1.7803
3. Sell NZDCAD at .8475, Stop at .8503, Target .8447
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1583, Stop at 1.1611, Target 1.1554

Today’s Trades 07.24.2018 EURNZD, GBPCHF, USDCAD, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

USD/JPY is selling off for the 5th consecutive trading session and this weakness is driving the greenback lower against all of the major currencies. Yesterday’s softer existing home sales report can be blamed but ultimately, it is the trend of softer U.S. data that is encouraging profit taking in the greenback this week. There are no major U.S. economic reports on the calendar until Friday and today’s Market PMI numbers will only have limited impact on the currency. Therefore investors should keep an eye on U.S. yields because its not clear whether the selling will continue. The most important economic report released this morning was Eurozone PMIs but the data failed to help the euro as weaker activity in the service sector was offset by stronger activity in manufacturing. The strongest performing currencies this morning are the Australian dollar and sterling. AUD and NZD benefitting from the rally in the Shanghai Composite index and China’s new policies to support growth while healthier UK CBI data is helping sterling. Looking ahead, we expect the Canadian dollar to trade higher on the back of morning’s rally in oil prices and the U.S. dollar to extend its losses during North American trade.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+CAD
+GBP
+NZD
+AUD

*Trading Biases*

-USD
+CAD, +GBP, +NZD, +AUD
Mildly +EUR, +CHF
Neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDUSD at .6798, Stop at.6771, Target .6827
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.3152, stop at 1.3180, Target 1.3124
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.7211, Stop at 1.7239, Target 1.7183
4. Buy GBPCHF at 1.3039, Stop at 1.3011, Target 1.3067

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.11.2018 USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURNZD, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Escalating trade tensions has been good and not bad for the U.S. dollar and thats why we’re seeing the currency trade higher across the board this morning after the Trump Administration released a new list of Chinese products that are subject to tariffs. China plans to retaliate and investors area waiting with bated breath for their response. The currency hit the hardest by these tensions is the Australian dollar which dropped below 74 cents despite stronger consumer confidence. NZD is also very weak which should not be a surprise as the economy’s underlying weakness is exacerbated by trade troubles. Although US yields are down today and Dow futures are pointing to a significantly lower open, USDJPY is aiming for its March 111.39 high. Producer prices are scheduled for release this morning and a good number could encourage USD/JPY to test resistance. Euro is one of the most resilient currencies at the start of the NY session thanks to the relative stability of German yields and the 1.17 support level. Aside from trade, the main focus will be the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement. The Canadian dollar is trading lower ahead of the event but the market is pricing in a 97% chance of a hike. This tells us that investors are focusing more on guidance than tightening. Looking ahead, risk appetite will be key. If stocks reverse their losses, so will currencies but if the Dow falls 300 points or more, many currencies will extend their losses.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-AUD
-NZD
+USD
+EUR

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR
-AUD, -NZD, -CHF
neutral GBP, CAD, JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8848, Stop at .8820, Target .8876
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7391, Stop at .7419, Target .7363
3. Buy EURNZD at 1.7250, Stop at 1.7222, Target 1.7278
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.22, Stop at 110.94, Target 111.50

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.06.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, NZDCAD, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning with EUR/USD above 1.1750, USD/JPY above 110 and GBP/USD above 1.34. Euro is benefitting from ECB comments relating to an earlier taper -- a view that we have emphasized after the 9 cent drop in the euro. Buyers continue to snap up USD/JPY ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Australian dollar also erased yesterday’s losses after a much stronger than expected GDP report. Risk ON is helping to take CAD and NZD higher as well and its no surprise to see the CHF and JPY underperform in a positive market environment like today. Yields are up across the board and equity futures point to a positive open. The Canadian dollar is in playwith trade balance and IVEY PMI reports scheduled for release -- the Bank of Canada’s optimism suggests that we could see firmer numbers. U.S. trade on the other hand could fall short of expectations given the strength of the dollar last month and the drop in the manufacturing ISM report.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-CHF
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD
-CHF, -JPY
mildly +GBP, -USD (but +USDJPY)
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8760, Stop at .8732, Target .8788
2. Sell NZDCAD at .9092, Stop at .9120, target .9064
3. Buy EURUSD at 1.1765, Stop at 1.1737, Target 1.1793
4. Buy EURJPY at 129.65, Stop at 129.37, Target 129.93

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USDCAD +28
EURJPY +28
EURAUD
AUDUSD

Today’s Trades 06.04.2018 – USDJPY, CADCHF, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Recoveries at the end of last week carried over to this new trading week with the Australian dollar leading the gains. AUD is up more than 1% on the back of stronger retail sales data, lifting the New Zealand dollar with it. Profit taking on long US dollar positions also helped euro shrug off softer PPI. Today’s U.S. factory orders and durable goods report are not expected to have a significant impact on the greenback. With stocks pointing higher and yields edging upwards, there’s an appetite for risk that should benefit the yen crosses. We also see a further near term pullback in USD/CAD.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+GBP
+AUD
+NZD
+CAD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD
+EUR, +GBP, +AUD, +NZD, +CAD, +JPY, +CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell CADCHF at .7618, Stop at .7646, Target .7590
2. Sell USDJPY at 109.54, Stop ta 109.82, Target 109.26
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.6646, Stop at 1.6674, Target 1.6618

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

GBPCHF -11
EURJPY -5

Today’s Trades 04.30.2018 – EURJPY, EURNZD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

I’m back in markets this morning but only trading #2 today and Thursday since we’ll be live trading non-farm payrolls on Friday. Although the U.S. dollar has been very strong over the past few weeks, its pulling back with EUR, NZD and AUD leading the gains. EUR is up thanks to back to back improvements in EZ data. German retail sales came in much stronger than expected, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% from 5.3% and EZ economic confidence increased in the month of May. Is this enough for EUR/USD to bottom? Probably not with confidence votes in Spain and Italy at the end of the week but it is experiencing its strongest rally in nearly 3 weeks today which could continue in the North American session. This is particularly impressive considering that US Treasury rates are up sharply this morning, providing support for the dollar. The main catalyst for AUD and NZD strength is USD weakness because Australian and New Zealand housing data fell short of expectations overnight. Looking ahead, the US and Canadian dollars are in play this morning with ADP, revisions to US GDP and the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement on the calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-JPY
+NZD
+AUD
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

-USD (except vs. JPY)
+EUR, +NZD, +CHF, +AUD
-JPY, -GBP
Mildly +CAD in early NY trade

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURJPY at 126.39, Stop at 126.11, Target 126.67
2. Buy AUDCHF at .7463, Stop at .7435, Target .7491
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.6713, Stop at 1.6741, Target 1.6685

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.09.2018 – GBPCHF, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We’re starting the new trading week with stability. U.S. stock futures are pointing to a positive open after selling off sharply on Friday thanks in part to the recovery in Asian and European equities. Treasury yields are also pointing higher, supporting the rally in the greenback. The dollar is up against most of the major currencies with the exception of sterling and the New Zealand dollar. Investors still believe or at least hope that trade tensions between the U.S. and China amounts to nothing more than posturing as no sanctions have gone in effect and so far there hasn’t been further antagonism from China. The euro is under pressure from softer German trade data while the New Zealand dollar is benefitting from AUD/NZD, which has fallen to a 1 year low. Sterling on the other hand is up thanks to stronger house prices and a rise in Gilt yields. Keep an eye on the headlines as geopolitical risks remain the key focus -- we could get a NAFTA deal this week and increased tensions with China.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+GBP
-CHF
-EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD,+GBP
-EUR, -CHF, -JPY
mildly -NZD
neutral CAD, AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9606, Stop at .9578, Target .9634
2. Buy USDJPY at 107.13, Stop at 106.85, target 107.41
3. Buy GBPCHF at 1.3545, Stop at 1.3517, Target 1.3573
4. Sell EURNZD at 1.6843, Stop at 1.6871, Target 1.6815

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.23.2018 – EURUSD, EURCHF, EURAUD, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Overnight we saw continued weakness in Asian and European equities but not currencies. USD/JPY is trading back above 105 as stock futures bounce off their lows and 10 year Treasury yields turn positive. Whether this level holds remains to be seen but the for the time being, there’s no signs of an ugly open that could send the dollar to fresh lows. China announced its own tariffs overnight and now that both countries have taken these antagonistic steps, there’s no doubt trade war tensions will worsen before they improve. The Canadian dollar is in focus today with CPI and retail sales scheduled for release. The U.S. has durable goods and new home sales which are far less market moving. Commodity currencies in general are outperforming European currencies with the New Zealand dollar leading the gains.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+AUD
+NZD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +NZD, +GBP
-CHF
neutral JPY, USD, CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCHF at 1.1683, Stop at 1.1655, Target 1.1711
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5978, Stop at 1.6006, Target 1.5950
3. Bought EURUSD at 1.2334, Stop at 1.2306, Target 1.2362
4. Sell EURNZD at 1.7031, Stop at 1.7059, Target 1.7003

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.23.2018 – USDCAD, EURNZD, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a quiet start to what could be another busy day in the FX market. The Fed will be releasing its monetary policy report at 11am NY time and this is viewed as a blueprint for Jerome Powell’s speech next week. Canadian consumer prices are also due for release and as usual, investors will be watching equities which are poised for a stronger open. The U.S. dollar is trading higher against many of the major currencies (EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD) but it continues to struggle versus the JPY. Claims of victory at the latest Brexit negotiations by both sides provided a momentary lift to sterling and we expect the single currency to outperform its peers today. Its the end of the week so there’s risk for reversals but there’s been no clear direction in stocks so not much incentive for profit taking or liquidation.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-AUD
-NZD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD, -EUR, -JPY, -CHF
-AUD, -NZD,
mildly +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.2700, Stop at 1.2728, Target 1.2672
2. Buy EURNZD at 1.6865, Stop at 1.6837, Target 1.6893
3. Sell CHFJPY at 114.32, Stop at 114.60, Target 114.04

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

EUR/NZD – Upside Breakout, 1.72 Next?

EUR/NZD – Upside Breakout, 1.72 Next?

Chart Of The Day

EUR/NZD – Upside Breakout, 1.72 Next?

Euro is one of this week’s best performing currencies. Compared to others, its pullback on Friday was modest and even with the decline EUR/USD is flat for the week while up strongly versus the commodity currencies including the New Zealand dollar. The Eurozone’s economy is recovering and the effect of a strong euro on inflation has been limited. As a result, Eurozone policymakers have become more tolerant of the rising currency and more eager to end asset purchases. With very little Eurozone data in the coming week to threaten the currency’s positive outlook we see further gains in the currency. Meanwhile the New Zealand dollar is at risk of additional losses. On Friday, it experienced its largest one day decline since October and such a strong sell-off typically has continuation. The RBNZ meets next week and since the last meeting, the New Zealand dollar appreciated 5.5% versus the greenback and 2% versus the Australian dollar. Data has been softer with retail sales growth slowing materially, manufacturing activity easing, business confidence falling and inflation slowing. We believe the risk is to the downside as the central bank could opt to talk down the currency.

Technically, EUR/NZD broke out of its month long consolidation and ending the day above the 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-December. There’s some mild resistance near 1.7065 (the Oct 31, Dec 12, 20 high) but once that level is broken, there’s no major resistance until 1.72.

Today’s Trades 10.27.2017 – EURNZD and EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The 2 currencies which have received the most attention this week -- the euro and Canadian dollar extended their slide. Otherwise we’re seeing a relatively quiet start to a firm week for the greenback. There hasn’t been much in the way of U.S. data on the calendar until this morning’s Q3 GDP report. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is also scheduled for release but these are final and not preliminary numbers so they will be less market moving. Economists are looking for softer GDP growth and US yields are slightly lower which explains the lack momentum in USDJPY or the greenback in general. However we believe that the report could beat expectations because retail sales and trade activity improved between July and September.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+NZD
-CAD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -CAD, -CHF
+NZD
Slightly +USD, -AUD
neutral GBP and JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 132.57, Stop at 132.87, Target 132.37
2. Sell EURNZD at 1.6978, Stop 1.7008, Target 1.6958

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.23.2017 – EURNZD, EURUSD, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Although U.S. yields are up only marginally this morning, the U.S. dollar is trading higher against most of the major currencies with USD/JPY leading the gains after PM Abe’s victory last night. The deeply oversold New Zealand dollar is the only currency to hold steady vs. the greenback but after last week’s political developments, it still remains vulnerable to additional losses. The weakest performer is the euro. While the ECB is widely expected to announce tapering plans on Thursday, Spain’s political troubles are hurting the currency at the front of the week. The Bank of Canada also has a monetary policy announcement and the loonie is starting the week under a bit of pressure. Friday’s CPI and retail sales reports give the BoC very little reason to alter its less hawkish tone. There’s not much going on in GBP or AUD, which are slightly lower on the back of the rising dollar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-AUD
+NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -AUD, -CAD, -CHF, -JPY
mildly +NZD and +GBP

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURUSD at 1.1748. Stop at 1.1776, Target 1.1728
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7813, Stop at .7841, Target .7793
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.6857, Stop at 1.6887, Target 1.6837

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST