Today’s Trades 04.18.2018 – EURJPY, GBPCHF, EURAUD, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning as investors reward President Trump’s progress in talks with North Korea. He confirmed that CIA Chief Mike Pompeo met with Kim Jong Un in North Korea last week, paving the way for an official conversation between Trump and Kim. The dollar should be able to hold onto its gains with the Fed’s beige Book scheduled for release this afternoon, U.S. bond yields moving higher and Dow futures pointing to a positive open. The weakest currency is sterling which was hit by another round of softer data. UK CPI growth slowed to 0.1% in the month of March against expectations for 0.3% rise causing year over year growth to slow to 2.5% from 2.7%. Sterling is vulnerable to a deeper correction following softer wages yesterday. The strongest currency is the euro which refuses to fall in lockstep with its peers partly because of Iran’s decision to stop using dollars in its transactions -- a move that other nations could follow. The biggest event risk today is the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement -- no changes are expected but recent data improvements could encourage optimism.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-GBP
+USD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +USD
-GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -NZD
mildly +CHF, +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at .7841, Stop at .7868, Target .7812 (edited)
2. Buy EURAUD aat 1.5950, Stop at 1.5922, Target 1.5978
3. Sold GBPCHF at 1.3753, Stop at 1.3781, Target at 1.3725
4. Bought EURJPY at 132.71, Stop at 132.43, Target 132.99

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.15.2018 – AUDUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, AUDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currency pairs are under pressure this morning after yesterday’s sell-off in U.S. equities. Although Asian and European stocks were flat investors remain nervous about softer U.S. data and political uncertainty in the Trump Administration. Larry Kudlow is widely expected to be named Gary Cohn’s replacement today but Attorney General Jeff Sessions could be the next one to go. USD/JPY is under the greatest pressure but 105.50 is important support. If the market interprets Kudlow’s nomination as positive for the risk, that level will hold rather than break. The euro is trading heavy after ECB President Draghi’s dovish comments but its losses are moderate compared to some of the other major currencies -- on a flow basis it looks like it wants to take another trip below 1.2350. Sterling is quickly closing in on 1.3900, an important support level. All 3 of the commodity currencies are trading lower this morning with the Australian dollar leading the slide. The New Zealand dollar is surprisingly resilient considering the market’s initial disappointment with Q4 GDP. USD/CAD is on the move again this morning and eyeing another run to 1.30. We don’t think this level will break but the pair could come close to testing it.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-AUD
-CAD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CAD, -NZD
+JPY, +CHF
neutral USD (-USDJPY but +USD vs. other currencies)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDCHF at .7423, Stop at .7451, Target .7395
2. Sell EURJPY at 130.88, Stop at 131.16, Target 130.60
3. Buy USDCAD at 1.2369, Stop at 1.2941, Target 1.2997
4. Sell AUDUSD at .7853, Stop at .7881, Target .7825

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.13.2018 – EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDJPY, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The biggest story this morning is that USD/JPY is trading above 107.00. The currency pair jumped 100 pips in the past 14 hours on the back of overnight gains in the Nikkei. Asian and European equities shrugged off yesterday’s slide in U.S. stocks and now Dow futures are pointing to a stronger open. The rally in USD/JPY has taken all of the yen crosses higher and 107.50 is now in sight. EUR/USD remains under pressure but received brief support form ECB Lane’s comment that the current euro level is no concern. Although this view is not new, the fact that it managed to drive EUR/USD up 20 pips in seconds suggest that the currency pair does not want to fall. GBP/USD is hovering just under 1.3900 ahead of the UK’s Spring Statement -- we think the pair will breach this level and finally break to the upside but the statement remains an unclear risk and there are still conflicting Brexit headlines. Next to the Japanese Yen, the New Zealand dollar is the best performer while the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar trail behind. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will be speaking at 10:15AM NY.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+NZD
+GBP
-CAD
+AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +NZD, +AUD, +CHF
-JPY, -CAD
mildly +EUR, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell CADCHF at .7374, Stop at .7402, Target .7346
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.2334, Stop at 1.2306, Target 1.2362
3. Buy AUDJPY at 84.38, Stop at 84.10, Target 84.66
4. Bought EURJPY at 132.30, Stop at 132, 02, Target 132.58

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.02.2018 – EURJPY, USDJPY, NZDCHF, AUDNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning while the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are trading higher across the board. Asian and European equities followed U.S. stocks lowered with Dow futures now pointing to another day of weakness for U.S. stocks. President Trump’s tariffs have elicited an antagonistic response from China who said they could take measures to protect their own interests. Canada has also blasted this move while the European Commission says they have counter-measures ready against U.S. tariffs and will discuss a response on Monday March 5. We can’t imagine all of this going well and the risk of retaliation will continue to weigh on market sentiment. We expect further weakness for the yen crosses and think EUR will be vulnerable to profit taking ahead of this weekend’s political events. Prime Minister May will be speaking shortly and we doubt that the market will be satisfied or sold on her plans for Brexit. The Canadian dollar extended its losses ahead of its monthly and quarterly GDP reports. The New Zealand dollar is underperforming the Australian dollar and we believe that is likely to continue.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+JPY
+CHF
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -CAD, -NZD
+JPY, +CHF
mildly -AUD, -EUR
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURJPY at 129.72, Stop at 130.00, Target 129.44
2. Sell USDJPY at 105.33, stop at 105.61, Target 105.05
3. Sell NZDCHF at .6765, Stop at .6793, Target .6737
4. Buy AUDNZD at 1.0719, Stop at 1.0691, Target 1.0747

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.01.2018 – EURJPY, EURUSD, NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The sell-off in Asian and European equities overnight kept currencies under pressure ahead of the North American trading session. Although most of the major currencies consolidated after yesterday’s losses, the sharp slide in Dow futures (which points to a lower open) suggests that the weakness could continue in NY trade. The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies except for NZD which is supported by stronger trade data. AUD on the other hand took a hit from weaker manufacturing data. Sterling shrugged off a healthier PMI report as Brexit concerns persist and gilt yields tumble. The euro is also under pressure ahead of this weekend’s elections while the Canadian dollar extends its slide. Stronger than expected Swiss GDP had zero impact on the Franc. The U.S. releases its personal income, spending and ISM manufacturing reports this morning. We are looking for mostly softer data that could extend the slide in USD/JPY, stocks and possibly even risk currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+NZD
+USD (except vs. JPY)
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CAD, -CHF, -AUD
+NZD, +USD, +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURJPY at 130.00, Stop at 130.28, Target 129.72
2. Buy NZDCAD at .9279, Stop at.9251, Target .9307
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.2173, Stop at 1.2200, Target 1.2145

EURNZD +21 and NZDJPY -5 before posting

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.26.2018 – EURJPY, AUDUSD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is starting the North American trading session lower against all of the major currencies but it is quietly recovering its losses, particularly against the Japanese Yen as U.S. stocks point to a positive open. Thanks to the early performance of U.S. equity futures and the overnight rallies in European and Asian stocks, today should be a day of improved risk appetite. This could benefit all of the yen pairs and drive the Swiss Franc lower. It should also be positive for risk currencies like the EUR and AUD but on a technical basis, the rallies are meeting resistance which suggests that the USD could lead the gains rather than the demand for risk. We had initially sold EURGBP but exited on Brexit noise. Corbyn’s comments that the UK is still in the dark over May’s Brexit plans and will not be joining a customs union after Brexit is a threat to the currency’s earlier gains. The euro is at the upper end of its 4 day range and Mario Draghi’s speech at 9AM NY could affect how the currency trades. The commodity currencies are also beginning to give up their earlier gains as well with CAD and AUD the weakest performers. Today’s U.S. new home sales report is not expected to have a significant impact on currencies as investors wait for Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Tuesday.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-JPY
-CHF
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-CHF, -JPY, AUD, -NZD,
mildly +EUR
mildly -GBP, -CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9344, stop at .9315, Target .9372
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7861, Stop at .7889, Target .7833
3. Buy EURJPY at 131.68. Stop at 131.40. Target 131.96

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

EURJPY Makes a Stand

EURJPY Makes a Stand

Chart Of The Day

After relentless selling for the past week, EURJPY appears to have bottomed at the 132.00 level. The pair has formed a bottom of four wick candles indicating that buyers continue to scoop up the pair whenever it approaches that level.

With USDJPY appearing to have found a bottom at the 106.00 figure and EURUSD holding bid near the 1.2500 high’s EURJPY may be poised to make a move back towards the 134.00 figure as the week comes to an end. After endless days of trying the break fresh lows, the short may be exhausted and a short squeeze in the pair is due.

oday’s Trades 02.08.2018 – EURJPY, AUDNZD, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We’re late with this note (all trades were posted on slack) because we were preparing to live trade the Bank of England rate decision but now that the first leg of movement has occurred -- we have a few minutes to share our thoughts.

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning (with the exception of GBP which popped on the BoE’s upgraded growth forecast and their comment that rates could rise faster and earlier than they anticipated in November -- which is an overwhelmingly positive comment. Stock futures are pointing to a lower open but the decline so far appears modest so USD/JPY is attempting to bottom and we think other yen crosses will as well (which is why we are long EURJPY). USD/CAD is also meeting resistance and we have chosen to buy the Canadian dollar vs. the Swiss Franc although USDCAD itself looks like an attractive sell. AUD and NZD are weak and likely to fall further but AUD is deep in its decline whereas NZD is just beginning to catch up, making AUD/NZD an attractive long trade. EUR is neither here nor there. Its benefitting from GBP strength but also held back by USD gains.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP (post BoE)
+CAD
-NZD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP, +CAD
-NZD, -JPY, -CHF, -AUD
neutral EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy CADCHF at .7509, Stop at .7481, Target .7537
2. Buy EURJPY at 134.24, Stop at 133.96, Target 134.52
3. Buy AUDNZD at 1.0826, Stop at 1.0798, Target 1.0854

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.05.2018 – USDCAD, EURJPY, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The best performing currencies this morning are the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen and whenever that happens, its a sign of risk aversion. After Friday’s 665 point drop in the Dow, investors are nervous that there will be more selling and weakness that drives currencies lower. Stock futures are pointing to a -250 point lower open! This is a busy week in the FX market with 3 central bank rate decisions and a host of other market moving reports but there’s very little U.S. data to key off of so risk appetite will be driving dollar flows. The greenback could extend its gains against high beta currencies like GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD, which are vulnerable to additional profit taking this week. The weakest currency this morning is the British pound which is not surprising considering that the central bank’s meeting and Quarterly Inflation reports are the biggest events this week. PMI data was also softer with service sector and composite activity slowing. The Australian dollar is holding up best ahead of this evening’s RBA rate decision and retail sales report.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-CAD
+JPY
-EUR
-CHF
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

-GBP, -CAD, -CHF, -NZD
+JPY, +USD (except for +USDJPY)
mildly -EUR
neutral AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2425, Stop at 1.2397, target 1.2453
2. Sell CHFJPY at 117.84, Stop at 118.12, Target 117.56
3. Sold EURJPY at 136.54, Stop at 136.82, Target 136.25

Pips banked in #2 and Trade Copier pre-summary
GBPUSD +28
USDJPY -8
EURUSD +2
Total +22

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 01.31.2018 – USDCHF, EURJPY, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning but thanks to President Trump who did not cause any major disruptions to the market, the sell-off is modest. High beta currencies continue to perform well with the New Zealand dollar leading the gains. There’s no specific explanation for the 1% jump outside of AUD/NZD selling after softer Australian CPI. Euro is trading above 1.2450 thanks to stronger German employment numbers and while GBP is also trading higher, it lags behind following a report that the EU rejected the city of London’s post Brexit deal for financial services. The Canadian dollar is trading firmly ahead of GDP but all eyes are on the FOMC today. It will be Yellen’s last and while the greenback is on its back foot, the currency’s slide should be limited by the prospect of a more hawkish outlook. Beware of month-end flows and the upcoming ADP and Chicago PMI reports.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-JPY
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+EUR
-JPY, -CHF
mildly +USD, +AUD, +NZD
mildly -GBP
neutral CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy USDCHF at .9330, Stop at .9302, Target .9358
2. Buy EURJPY 135.47 at 135.19, Target 135.75
3. Buy EURGBP at .8795, Stop at .8767, Target .8823

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 01.29.2018 – EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning but the modest increase in USDJPY suggests consolidation rather than a full blown recovery. Yields are up across the board which may be helping the dollar but with the yen pairs still depressed, currencies have not recouped with Treasuries or other fixed income markets for that matter. With all this in mind, the dollar was sold aggressively oversold last week causing many currencies to become overextended and these corrections are likely to continue during the North American session. This is a big week for the dollar with a FOMC meeting, non-farm payrolls report and State of the Union address from President Trump so there’s motivation for profit taking. Today specifically, personal income and spending numbers are due -- they are likely to be mixed with wages up but spending softening in December . The weakest performing currency this morning is sterling and the strongest is the U.S. dollar followed by the Australian dollar. No reports were released from either country but U.K. yields are up the least this morning.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+JPY
+AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP
+JPY
mildly +USD but -USDJPY
mildly -AUD, -NZD, -CAD but relative strength

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURJPY at 134.82, Stop at 1.3510, Target 134.54
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5315, Stop at 1.5343, Target 1.5287
3. Sell GBPUSD at 1.4072. Stop at 1.4100, Target 1.4044

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

EURJPY – 140.00 in View?

EURJPY – 140.00 in View?

Chart Of The Day

EURJPY posted its best reading in nearly two years today pushing through the 136.00 by morning US trade. The pair is signaling that market is looking for synchronous global growth that will tighten monetary policy everywhere but Japan allowing the pair to make a move towards the key 140.00 level over the next few weeks.

Today’s strong ADP data has the market thinking that NFPs will be solid as well, and if the number proves to be strong in both payrolls and wages USDJPY should verticalize well above the 113.00 level and pull EURJPY along with it, making the 140.00 target within reach.