EURJPY – 140.00 in View?

EURJPY – 140.00 in View?

Chart Of The Day

EURJPY posted its best reading in nearly two years today pushing through the 136.00 by morning US trade. The pair is signaling that market is looking for synchronous global growth that will tighten monetary policy everywhere but Japan allowing the pair to make a move towards the key 140.00 level over the next few weeks.

Today’s strong ADP data has the market thinking that NFPs will be solid as well, and if the number proves to be strong in both payrolls and wages USDJPY should verticalize well above the 113.00 level and pull EURJPY along with it, making the 140.00 target within reach.

Is EURJPY the True  FOMC Play?

Is EURJPY the True FOMC Play?

Chart Of The Day

For the past few weeks, EURJPY has been contained to a 132.00-133.00 zone as the push/pull tug of war between bulls and bears provided no clear winner. The market essentially remains in a “show me” mode as traders await the FOMC rate decision and more importantly its guidance about the growth and inflation in 2018.

While the chance of a rate hike tomorrow is 100%, the much more important question is whether the Fed has now moved unambiguously into a tightening mode as it tries to normalize policy. If the statement tomorrow looks past the weak inflation numbers and instead upgrades the growth forecast the dollar is likely to rally hard against the yen, but may not necessarily gain much ground against the euro as markets will assume that Fed’s upbeat outlook will spill over into global demand and will, therefore, force the ECB to become more hawkish as well. That’s why EURJPY may be the best yen cross for a bullish FOMC day especially if it breaks above the 135.00 resistance level clearing the way for a strong rally into the year-end.

Today’s Trades 12.07.2017 – USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning despite a marginal pullback in U.S. yields. The commodity currencies are the worst performers with CAD extending its slide following yesterday’s Bank of Canada statement. The Australian dollar has slipped on the back of softer trade data. Sterling is the most resilient as investors hope for a Brexit deal. Time is running out for Prime Minister May and the pressure is on for the leader of the UK to strike a deal with the DUP and the EU. With the EU Summit slated for next week, it’s head Brexit negotiator has given Britain 48 hours to agree to a potential deal or risk freezing the talks for the rest of the year. Sterling bulls are optimistic and while we are skeptical of a deal, we see the possibility of GBP recovery today before some selling on Friday. As non-farm payrolls near, USD/JPY comes into play. The pair has found its way back above 112.50 but 113 remains formidable resistance. Jobless claims and the Challenger layoff report are due this morning and while these numbers may only have a limited impact on the greenback, jobs are on everyone’s minds. We expect the dollar to press higher today as other currencies underperform.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+USD
-JPY
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD, -JPY
neutral CAD (fundamentally positive but meeting resistance technically)
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy EURJPY at market now 132.84, Stop at 132.56, Target 133.12
2. Sell AUDCAD at .9649, Stop at .9677, Target .9621
3. Bought USDJPY at 112.74, Stop 112.47, Target 113.02

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.01.2017 – USDCHF, EURGBP, AUDUSD, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar this morning because global yields are sharply lower across the board. Political troubles in the U.S, Germany and Britain are making investors weary of the recent rallies. In the U.S., there was alot of confusion about the tax reform deal when a tax increase trigger was ruled as invalid, pushing a vote to Friday. It is still too close to call and investors will be watching the headlines carefully for any updates on the tax vote. Debates begin at 11AM NY Time. In Germany, Angela Merkel is trying to convince the SPD to form a grand coalition but the head of the SPD said he has not given a green light for another coalition as Germany’s European policy must change. In Britain, the Irish border remains a thorny issue and the hard right DUP party has threatened to withdraw their support for May if she offers any compromises on the border. As a result, USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD are all trading lower. The commodity currencies are a bit higher but also giving up on their rallies. Looking ahead, CAD GDP and employment are due for release along with US ISM manufacturing numbers -- we are bearish on all fronts.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-USD
+GBP
+JPY
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -CHF, -AUD
+GBP, +JPY
neutral NZD
mildly -CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCHF at .9824, Stop at .9852, Target .9796
2. Sell EURGBP at market now .8812, Stop at .8840, Target .8784
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7566, Stop at .7594, Target .7538
4. Back into EURJPY at 133.69, Stop at 133.97, Target 133.41

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

EURJPY to 131.20

EURJPY to 131.20

Chart Of The Day

EURJPY to 131.20

The EUR/USD ended the day at its lows after hitting a high of 1.1961. A reversal as strong as today’s is generally a precursor to further weakness. While it is difficult to say what caused the currency’s underperformance, 1.1975 was about the level where ECB President Draghi described currency moves as volatile. Back in September when EUR/USD was trading near 1.1975, he said “the recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring.” We doubt this view has changed given Germany’s political troubles and the low level of inflation but that along with the weakness of German yields are the main reasons for the euro’s underperformance. The technical structure of the pair now signals a deeper correction to at least 1.1850, which is why we like selling euros. However we have chosen to sell EUR vs. the Japanese Yen because we believe that tomorrow’s economic reports will add additional pressure to USD/JPY. We also expect more pushback on tax reform before an agreement that leads to a floor vote. Jerome Powell also faces a nominee hearing on Tuesday and while he has never dissented from a Fed decision, he has a reputation of being dovish on monetary policy.

Technically, EUR/JPY sold off sharply on Monday but it is the abundance of moving average resistance on the 4 hour chart that makes it a particularly attractive sell. There’s no major support until the November 19th low of 131.14.

Today’s Trades 11.21.2017 – EURUSD, EURCAD, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a quiet morning for the euro, dollar and British pound which haven’t seen any major moves despite a pullback in yields. Today’s price action has been marked by mild recoveries in the commodity currencies but for the most part, currencies are marking their time. We still believe that the dollar will extend higher ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes but we have 1 more day of trade (Wed) before prices grind to a halt. We also see further losses in the euro as Germany’s political troubles plague the currency. Today’s existing home sales report won’t have much impact on the dollar and Yellen doesn’t speak until after the NY close though we don’t expect the market to react strongly to her words either. AUD is supported by RBA Governor Lowe’s comments last night. NZD will be affected by today’s dairy auction while CAD could trade lower as NAFTA talks draw to a close.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+AUD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP,
+AUD, +CAD, +USD
mildly +NZD
neutral JPY, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURJPY at 131.97, Stop at 132.25, Target 131.69
2. Sell EURCAD at 1.5012, Stop at 1.5040, Target 1.4984
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1723,, Stop at 1.1751, Target 1.1695

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.20.2017 – EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With many US traders off this entire week for the Thanksgiving holidays, we didn’t expect much from currency trade. But with the political impasse in Germany, the week kicked off with wild swings in the euro. The single currency collapsed Sunday night on news that the coalition talks failed but it turned higher during the European session on the hope that the FDP could form a minority government. Some attribute the recovery to localization of risks but Germany is the largest country in the Eurozone so their pains will be felt throughout the region. Forming a new government won’t be quick and its not clear where Merkel goes from here, which is why there’s a greater risk of correction than recovery extension in euro. The U.S. dollar is quietly bid as yields stabilize -- there are no major U.S. economic reports this week outside the FOMC minutes, which should be hawkish so a recovery could be in store for the greenback especially with USD/JPY finding support at 112. Sterling is strong, the loonie is weak as NAFTA talks continue with very little progress. Negotiations resume this morning. AUD and NZD are trying to stabilize after strong moves lower.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+USD
+GBP
-CAD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -CAD, -JPY, -CHF
+USD, +GBP, +NZD, +AUD,

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURUSD at 1.1784, Stop at 1.1812, Target 1.1756
2.Sell EURJPY at 132.12, Stop at 132.40, Target 131.84
3. Buy USDCAD at 1.2780, Stop at 1.2752, Target 1.2808

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.17.2017 – EURGBP, EURJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Last night’s North Korea headlines sent the US dollar tumbling against all of the major currencies but this morning the greenback appears to have found some support as US yields see only a modest decline. The House bill passed and now everyone’s watching the Senate who apparently advanced the bill through the Senate Finance Committee last night after 4 days of market ups. The vote was 14-12 with all Republicans voting yes and Democrats voting no. The bill heads to the Senate floor next week and will be debated by the entire Senate after the Thanksgiving break. There are no U.S. economic reports scheduled for release this morning so the dollar will take its cue from yields. We still think USDJPY its “nearing a bottom” here at 112.50 but have chosen to go long EURJPY. The only major piece of data today comes from Canada. CPI is expected to be weaker but the sharp rise in the price component of the IVEY PMI report suggests a stronger number. EUR, GBP are strong whereas AUD and NZD remain under pressure.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

possible USD bottom
+GBP
+CAD pre data

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +JPY, +CAD (pre-data0
-AUD, -NZD
mildly +USD
neutral EUR,CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURGBP at .8935, Stop at .8963, Stop at .8907
2. Buy EURJPY at market now 132.87, Stop at 132.59, Target 133.14
3. Sell USDCAD at 1.2743, Stop at 1.2771, Target 1.2715

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.08.2017 – EURCAD, EURGBP, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With 10 year Treasury yields down nearly 1bp at one point this morning, the U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies. Sterling is the only currency that is performing worst than the greenback because Gilt yields of the same period are down nearly 3bp on the back of a report that BoE agents see weaker investment growth over the next 2 years (no surprise with Brexit)! There are some Brexit talks today that could also affect sterling trade. There was no specific news to explain the USD’s weakness outside of last night’s softer Chinese trade balance which should have driven AUD and NZD lower but instead had greater impact on USDJPY. According to the Chinese government China’s economy still faces uncertainties which suggests that softer growth lies ahead. On North Korea, Trump’s warning to “not underestimate us. And do not try us” had very little impact on the market. The main event today is the RBNZ rate decision -- NZD is trading firmer ahead of the announcement. *I’ll be LIVE Trading it with you starting at 2:45pm NY (same daily webinar link).* We may also see some moves in the Canadian dollar with oil inventory, housing starts and building permits on tap.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-USD
-GBP
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR. -GBP,
+CAD, +AUD, +JPY
neutral NZD, CHF

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 131.74, Stop 132.02 Target 131.46
2. Sell EURCAD at 1.4783, Stop 1.4811, Target 1.4755
3. Buy EURGBP at .8838, Stop .8810. Target .8866

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.27.2017 – EURNZD and EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The 2 currencies which have received the most attention this week -- the euro and Canadian dollar extended their slide. Otherwise we’re seeing a relatively quiet start to a firm week for the greenback. There hasn’t been much in the way of U.S. data on the calendar until this morning’s Q3 GDP report. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is also scheduled for release but these are final and not preliminary numbers so they will be less market moving. Economists are looking for softer GDP growth and US yields are slightly lower which explains the lack momentum in USDJPY or the greenback in general. However we believe that the report could beat expectations because retail sales and trade activity improved between July and September.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+NZD
-CAD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -CAD, -CHF
+NZD
Slightly +USD, -AUD
neutral GBP and JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 132.57, Stop at 132.87, Target 132.37
2. Sell EURNZD at 1.6978, Stop 1.7008, Target 1.6958

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.24.2017 – AUDNZD, EURJPY, USDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar this morning but US yields are up across the board. 10 year Treasuries are knocking on the 2.4% door but similarly large moves in 10 year UK Gilt and German Bund yields have prevented EUR and GBP from experiencing any meaningful losses. Eurozone PMIs were mixed, adding to the concerns that the ECB may offer a dovish taper on Thursday. The Canadian dollar is trading slightly lower ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision. The big moves all came overnight when NZD plunged on the back of the new government’s agenda. USD/JPY also staged a dramatic recovery after crashing down to113.25 during the Asian trading session on very little news. Looking ahead, the US’ Markit PMI reports are scheduled for release today but investors will be focused on the move in yields and any updates on President Trumps’ Fed pick. He’s said he will make a decision very very soon -- the debate for many is that it will be Powell vs. Taylor or a combo of both.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-AUD
-NZD
-CAD
-GBP
-EUR

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -AUD, -CAD, -CHF, -JPY, -NZD, -GBP

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy AUDNZD at 1.1236, Stop at 1.1206, Target 1.1256
2. Buy EURJPY at 133.73, Stop at 133.43, Target 133.93
3. Buy USDJPY at 113.73, Stop at 113.43, Target 113.93

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.17.2017 – EURUSD, GBPUSD, CADJPY, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies today but the weakness of other currencies has more to do with domestic woes over dollar demand. EUR and GBP have fallen sharply on a lower ZEW survey and less than impressive UK CPI report and benign comments from BoE Governor Carney. Although Carney said a rate hike in coming months may be appropriate, investors felt that his comments were not positive enough. The commodity currencies are also weaker with CAD leading the slide. No major U.S. economic reports are due for release today so the moves that we’ve seen this morning should continue. Keep an eye on U.S. yields which are flat at the start of the NY session because if we see any positive drift, the sell-off in EUR/USD and GBP/USD could intensify.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
-CAD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CAD, -CHF
+JPY
neutral NZD, USD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy EURGBP at .8904, Stop at .8874, Target .8924
2. Sell EURJPY at 131.94, Stop at 132.24, Stop at 131.74
3. Sell CADJPY at 89.40, Stop at 89.70, Target 89.10
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1764, Stop at 1.1794, Target 1.1744

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST