Today’s Trades 11.17.2017 – EURGBP, EURJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Last night’s North Korea headlines sent the US dollar tumbling against all of the major currencies but this morning the greenback appears to have found some support as US yields see only a modest decline. The House bill passed and now everyone’s watching the Senate who apparently advanced the bill through the Senate Finance Committee last night after 4 days of market ups. The vote was 14-12 with all Republicans voting yes and Democrats voting no. The bill heads to the Senate floor next week and will be debated by the entire Senate after the Thanksgiving break. There are no U.S. economic reports scheduled for release this morning so the dollar will take its cue from yields. We still think USDJPY its “nearing a bottom” here at 112.50 but have chosen to go long EURJPY. The only major piece of data today comes from Canada. CPI is expected to be weaker but the sharp rise in the price component of the IVEY PMI report suggests a stronger number. EUR, GBP are strong whereas AUD and NZD remain under pressure.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

possible USD bottom
+GBP
+CAD pre data

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +JPY, +CAD (pre-data0
-AUD, -NZD
mildly +USD
neutral EUR,CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURGBP at .8935, Stop at .8963, Stop at .8907
2. Buy EURJPY at market now 132.87, Stop at 132.59, Target 133.14
3. Sell USDCAD at 1.2743, Stop at 1.2771, Target 1.2715

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.08.2017 – EURCAD, EURGBP, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With 10 year Treasury yields down nearly 1bp at one point this morning, the U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies. Sterling is the only currency that is performing worst than the greenback because Gilt yields of the same period are down nearly 3bp on the back of a report that BoE agents see weaker investment growth over the next 2 years (no surprise with Brexit)! There are some Brexit talks today that could also affect sterling trade. There was no specific news to explain the USD’s weakness outside of last night’s softer Chinese trade balance which should have driven AUD and NZD lower but instead had greater impact on USDJPY. According to the Chinese government China’s economy still faces uncertainties which suggests that softer growth lies ahead. On North Korea, Trump’s warning to “not underestimate us. And do not try us” had very little impact on the market. The main event today is the RBNZ rate decision -- NZD is trading firmer ahead of the announcement. *I’ll be LIVE Trading it with you starting at 2:45pm NY (same daily webinar link).* We may also see some moves in the Canadian dollar with oil inventory, housing starts and building permits on tap.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-USD
-GBP
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR. -GBP,
+CAD, +AUD, +JPY
neutral NZD, CHF

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 131.74, Stop 132.02 Target 131.46
2. Sell EURCAD at 1.4783, Stop 1.4811, Target 1.4755
3. Buy EURGBP at .8838, Stop .8810. Target .8866

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.27.2017 – EURNZD and EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The 2 currencies which have received the most attention this week -- the euro and Canadian dollar extended their slide. Otherwise we’re seeing a relatively quiet start to a firm week for the greenback. There hasn’t been much in the way of U.S. data on the calendar until this morning’s Q3 GDP report. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is also scheduled for release but these are final and not preliminary numbers so they will be less market moving. Economists are looking for softer GDP growth and US yields are slightly lower which explains the lack momentum in USDJPY or the greenback in general. However we believe that the report could beat expectations because retail sales and trade activity improved between July and September.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+NZD
-CAD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -CAD, -CHF
+NZD
Slightly +USD, -AUD
neutral GBP and JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 132.57, Stop at 132.87, Target 132.37
2. Sell EURNZD at 1.6978, Stop 1.7008, Target 1.6958

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.24.2017 – AUDNZD, EURJPY, USDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar this morning but US yields are up across the board. 10 year Treasuries are knocking on the 2.4% door but similarly large moves in 10 year UK Gilt and German Bund yields have prevented EUR and GBP from experiencing any meaningful losses. Eurozone PMIs were mixed, adding to the concerns that the ECB may offer a dovish taper on Thursday. The Canadian dollar is trading slightly lower ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision. The big moves all came overnight when NZD plunged on the back of the new government’s agenda. USD/JPY also staged a dramatic recovery after crashing down to113.25 during the Asian trading session on very little news. Looking ahead, the US’ Markit PMI reports are scheduled for release today but investors will be focused on the move in yields and any updates on President Trumps’ Fed pick. He’s said he will make a decision very very soon -- the debate for many is that it will be Powell vs. Taylor or a combo of both.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-AUD
-NZD
-CAD
-GBP
-EUR

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -AUD, -CAD, -CHF, -JPY, -NZD, -GBP

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy AUDNZD at 1.1236, Stop at 1.1206, Target 1.1256
2. Buy EURJPY at 133.73, Stop at 133.43, Target 133.93
3. Buy USDJPY at 113.73, Stop at 113.43, Target 113.93

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.17.2017 – EURUSD, GBPUSD, CADJPY, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies today but the weakness of other currencies has more to do with domestic woes over dollar demand. EUR and GBP have fallen sharply on a lower ZEW survey and less than impressive UK CPI report and benign comments from BoE Governor Carney. Although Carney said a rate hike in coming months may be appropriate, investors felt that his comments were not positive enough. The commodity currencies are also weaker with CAD leading the slide. No major U.S. economic reports are due for release today so the moves that we’ve seen this morning should continue. Keep an eye on U.S. yields which are flat at the start of the NY session because if we see any positive drift, the sell-off in EUR/USD and GBP/USD could intensify.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
-CAD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CAD, -CHF
+JPY
neutral NZD, USD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy EURGBP at .8904, Stop at .8874, Target .8924
2. Sell EURJPY at 131.94, Stop at 132.24, Stop at 131.74
3. Sell CADJPY at 89.40, Stop at 89.70, Target 89.10
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1764, Stop at 1.1794, Target 1.1744

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.09.2017 – EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With U.S., Canadian and Japanese markets closed today, it should continue to be a quiet trading session. While the U.S. dollar is holding onto its gains versus the Japanese Yen, it is losing ground versus the European and commodity currencies. The only currency on the move today is sterling, which is supported by Prime Minister May’s upcoming Brexit Speech. May is expected to speak around 14:30 GMT and investors are hoping for more details on the UK and EU’s new relationship. Unfortunately we are not as optimistic because in the released copy of her speech, she said the ball is in the EU’s court and this morning, the EU said the ball is entirely in the U.K.’s court. With NFP behind us, we believe that the market will begin to shift its focus to ECB and for this reason we like buying euros versus the dollar and other major currencies. The commodity currencies are quiet and we do not expect big moves today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+NZD
+USDJPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +CHF, +USDJPY
-AUD
mildy +NZD, +USD
neutral JPY, CAD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy EURJPY at 132.25, Stop 131.95, Target 132.45
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1745, Stop 1.1715, Target 1.1765
3. Sell USDCHF at .9781, Stop a .9811, Target .9761

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 10.05.17 – EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDNZD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currency pairs are trading sharply lower this morning with the losses led by AUD/USD and USD/JPY. Softer Australian data last night sent AUD tumbling and puts the currency at risk of a steeper decline to 78 cents. Sterling on the other hand is being hit by comments from Prime Minister May who proposed cap household energy prices and more social housing. The dollar is also weak with USD/JPY losing ground quickly on the back of falling yields and this is pushing all of the Yen crosses lower. North American traders will have their eyes on Canada and the U.S.’ trade balance reports along with speeches from Fed Presidents Powell, Williams and Harker (all by 10am NY).

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
-AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -JPY, -CHF
neutral NZD
mildly +USD (but not vs JPY), +CAD

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell AUDNZD at 1.0928, Stop at 1.0958, Target 1.0908
2. Sell EURJPY at 132.15, Stop 132.45, Target 131.95
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1744, Stop at 1.1774, Target 1.1724
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7836, Stop at .7866, Target .7816

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan – EURGBP, EURJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies except for the euro which is back above 1.18 thanks to stronger than expected German labor data. The resilience of the greenback is surprising after yesterday’s sharp reversal in Treasury yields but at the end of the day the moves are modest and a reflection of shifting interest rate expectations in Australia, New Zealand and the U.K. AUD and NZD are lower today while CAD manages to extend its gains. Sterling on the other hand is the worst performer as a surprise downward revision to GDP casts doubt on the Bank of England’s rosy, hawkish outlook for the economy. US personal income, spending, the PCE deflator and Chicago PMI are due for release this morning along with the revisions to the September University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. At the same time from Canada, July GDP numbers are on tap.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-GBP
-AUD
-NZD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +CAD
-GBP
mildly -NZD, -AUD,
NEUTRAL USD, JPY

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy EURGBP at market now .8826, Stop at .8796, Target .8846
2. Buy EURJPY at 132.82, Stop at 132.52, Target 133.00
3. Sold USDCAD again at 1.2420, Stop 1.2450, Target 1.2400

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trading Plan 08.21.2017 – EURJPY, USDCAD, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

As U.S. and South Korea begin their military exercises, the U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies except for the Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc. U.S. rates are also moving lower, indicating that investors have not started to buy dollars (yet) into Jackson Hole. While we think the dollar will be pressured by geopolitical risks at the start the week, we ultimately believe that it will rally on Jackson Hole because practically ALL members of the FOMC believe that balance sheet reduction should begin next month. And they won’t miss the opportunity to remind/prepare the market for this big change. The sell-off in the Swiss Franc vs. USD and EUR confirm that investors are not overly concerned or nervous that the military exercises will boil over into something bigger. Its been a relatively quiet morning with commodity currencies leading the gains, USD/JPY testing and so far finding support near 109 and EUR/USD struggling to break above resistance at 1.0770.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-EUR
-CHF
+JPY
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+CAD, +AUD, +NZD
-EUR, -CHF,
mildly -USD, -JPY
neutral GBP

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell USDCAD at market now 1.2592, Stop 1.2632, Target 1.2572
2. Sell EURAUD at market now 1.4828, Stop at 1.4868, Target 1.4808
3. Sell EURJPY at market now 128.30, Stop 128.70, Target 128.05

EUR/JPY – Headed Back to 127?

EUR/JPY – Headed Back to 127?

Chart Of The Day

EUR/JPY – Headed Back to 127?

Between the ECB’s views on the currency, the terrorist attack in Spain and arrests in Finland, the euro should be trading below 1.17. The tragedy in Barcelona is a harsh reminder of the ongoing geopolitical risks facing the region. From an economic perspective, these attacks increase allocations to anti-terrorism efforts, discourage tourism and deter consumers from frequenting restaurants and other establishments. ECB President Mario Draghi will be speaking at Jackson Hole next week and there are reports that he may not talk taper. The central bank is also worried about the high level of the currency so if they may be reluctant to say anything that could reinvigorate the rally. As for the U.S. dollar, we’ve seen how positive data and hawkish Fed speak can be overshadowed by a deteriorating political environment. For many people, this past week’s stronger than expected retail sales report has become a distant memory. The U.S. and South Korea are scheduled to hold military games on Monday, if they move forward (and we think they will), reigniting North Korea’s fire, USD/JPY will extend its losses towards 108.00 before rebounding ahead of Jackson Hole.

For all of these reasons we believe EUR/JPY is headed back to 127. On a technical basis, EURJPY has crossed above the 50-day SMA but if it gets anywhere close to 129, we think it’s an attractive sell with a stop above the 20-day SMA near 129.80.

EURJPY is 130.00 the Top?

EURJPY is 130.00 the Top?

Chart Of The Day

For nearly the last month EURJPY has been stick at the 130.00 level and now the pair looks like it may be putting a long term top around that figure as upward momentum in euro appears to have stalled while USDJPY remains vulnerable to further sell-offs.

Today euro failed to make fresh highs and actually reversed in North American trade to fall below the 1.1800 level. This may be the first sign that the single currency is running out of gas as the anti-dollar rally has hit a wall at these levels.

Meanwhile, USDJPY has stabilized somewhat but remains vulnerable to further sell-offs especially if tomorrow’s ADP report prints worse than expected and sends the pair below the 110.00 level for good. All of this suggests that EURJPY may have peaked for now and that a correction to 128.00 is due over the next few days.

EURJPY – To Fresh Highs?

Chart Of The Day Uncategorized

Tomorrow the Fed is expected to give the dollar a boost but at the same time, the EURUSD hasn’t slowed a bit. The pair made fresh multi-month highs today as positive data out of Germany indicates that the rising currency is not hurting growth in the region.

Therefore, even if the Fed reaffirms its goal to hike rates once more before the end of the year, the rise in USDJPY won’t be accompanied by a fall in EURUSD which makes EURJPY such a compelling trade at the moment. The pair has held the 130.00 mark and could push to 132.00 if the FOMC meeting proves dollar positive as we believe it will be.