Today’s Trades 11.17.2018 EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPCHF, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are not seeing much consistency in U.S. dollar’s performance this morning as the greenback is trading higher against the European currencies and lower versus the commodity currencies. Sterling is leading the slide as the DUP reiterates their resistance to Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal. UK Cabinet Secretary Lidington said its wishful thinking that there could another EU deal so the decision that Parliament has to make is to accept the current deal or vote it down. Investors are worried that these won’t be very palatable options for the many members of the government who struggle with the decision. EUR/USD came close but failed to test 1.13 -- while the single currency remains under pressure and round numbers are often tested in EUR/USD, a very large option expiring today is preventing the pair from breaking through this level. AUD and NZD are surprisingly resilient in the face of mounting pressure from the US on China. Both currencies shrugged off President Trump’s threat of more tariffs and with a much weaker than expected NZ trade balance. The Canadian dollar is flat as oil prices try to stabilize and we see a small bias to the upside during the NY session. As for the U.S. dollar and USD/JPY it could hold onto its gains ahead of the consumer confidence report but the sentiment should lower given the sharp slide in stocks this month.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+CHF
+AUD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP
+CHF, +JPY, +AUD, +NZD
mildly +CAD
neutral USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 128.58, Stop at 128.86, Target 128.30
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5633, Stop at 1.5661, Target 1.5605
3. Sell USDCHF at .9993, Stop at 1.0021, Target .9965
4. Sell GBPCHF at 12731, Stop at 1.2759, Target 1.2703

Today’s Trades 11.01.2018 USDJPY, EURJPY, CHFJPY, EURCAD

Weekly Calendar Calls

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Short covering flows are strong this morning with most of the major currencies trading higher against the U.S. dollar. Thanks to the much better than expected Australian trade balance and recent tax cuts by the Chinese, the Australian and New Zealand dollars are the best performers. GBP is not far behind as UK Brexit negotiator Raab’s November 21st target for a deal inspires Brexit optimism. The sentiment is so strong that it allowed sterling traders to overlook a weaker UK manufacturing PMI report. Today is an important day for the British pound with a Bank of England monetary policy announcement and Quarterly Inflation Report scheduled for release. No changes are expected from the central bank but adjustments in economic their projections, how MPC members voted and the tone of Governor Carney’s press conference will have a significant impact on GBP. With the currency in short covering mode, a positive outlook should have a more significant impact on sterling than a negative one. Yields are up across the board which should be good for USD/JPY and the yen crosses. Dow futures are also pointing to another positive open for stocks. Non-farm payrolls are scheduled for release on Friday so the ISM report and jobless claims will be particularly important. The JPY and CAD are the primary underperformers and we expect this dynamic to continue. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.14 and while its not clear whether this level will break we are inclined to believe that the pair will test this level.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-USD (except for USDJPY)
-JPY
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +NZD
-USD, -JPY, -CAD
mildly +CHF, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDJPY at 112.96, stop at 112.68, Target 113.24
2. Sell CHFJPY at 112.53, Stop at 112.81, Target 112.25
3. Buy EURCAD at 1.4907, Stop at 1.4879, Target 1.4835
4. Buy EURJPY at 128.46, Stop at 128.18, Target 128.74

Today’s Trades 07.18.2018 EURJPY, NZDCAD, EURGBP, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is extending its gains following yesterday’s hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. On Day 2 of his Congressional testimony, investors expect the same sense of optimism. USD/JPY is hovering just under 113 and while another probe above that level seems imminent, we don’t expect a material extension as the second day of his semi-annual testimony is rarely as market moving as the first. However the Beige Book, scheduled for release in the afternoon should reinforce the dollar’s positive bias. Sterling is under the greatest pressure as inflation growth slows on a consumer and producer level. CPI also fell in the Eurozone causing EURUSD to eye a break of 1.16 and GBP/USD teasing a move below 1.30. With oil prices falling further this morning, USD/CAD will try to break 1.3250. Commodity currencies in general are under pressure and we expect this same underperformance today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -CAD, -AUD, -JPY
Neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Short EURJPY at 131.26, stop at 131.54, Target 130.98
2. Buy NZDCAD at 8955, Stop at .8927, Target .8983
3. Buy EURGBP at .8912, Stop at .8884, Target .8940
4. Sell NZDUSD at .6757, Stop at .6785, Target .6729

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.28.2018 EURJPY, EURAUD, AUDUSD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is consolidating after yesterday’s strong rally. While USD/JPY remains firm at the start of the NY session, the greenback is slipping versus the euro and Canadian dollar. EURO is supported by positive ECB comments and the prospect of stronger German CPI. The recent rise in oil prices makes it difficult for USD/CAD to extend its gains and this morning it is testing the lower bound of its 6 day range. If USD/CAD breaks 1.3250, we should see a quick slide down to 1.3200. The New Zealand dollar is trading at fresh 1 year lows following the RBNZ rate decision. Sterling also hit one year lows despite positive comments from the BoE and higher UK yields. The problem for many of these currencies is risk aversion -- stocks may be flat today but the Chinese Yuan continues its losing streak and the accompanying weakness in Asian stocks makes investors worried about global growth. US GDP revisions are scheduled for release this morning -- we are also nearing the end of the quarter so watch out for rebalancing flows. Given how much the dollar has risen over the past 3 months, quarter end portfolio rebalancing should involve selling of U.S. dollars.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF, +USDJPY
-JPY, -NZD, -USD
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURJPY at 127.62, Stop at 127.34, Target 127.90
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.3281, Stop at 1.3309, Target 1.3253
3. Sold USDCAD at 1.3284, Stop at 1.3312, Target 1.3256
4. Buy AUDUSD at .7353, Stop at .7325, Target .7381

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.19.2018 USDCAD, EURJPY, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

President Trump’s threat to impose another 200B in tariffs on China sent ripples throughout the financial markets. Investors are selling equities, currencies and buying Treasuries. Yields are down across the board and Dow futures, which are down 300 points are pointing to a very ugly NY open. The U.S. dollar is up against all of the major currencies except for USD/JPY and this price action is consistent with risk aversion. While China doesn’t want a trade war, they said they aren’t afraid of one, so headline risk is a serious one over the next few trading days. Expect the language to harden and currencies to soften. GBP/USD is trading at a one year low this morning as pound’s troubles are doubled by Brexit complications -- the government refuses to accept
the Parliament’s proposal on the meaningful vote. EUR/USD is trading below 1.15 as ECB Liikanen’s view that rates can remain unchanged after the 2019 if needed compound the currency’s losses. USD/CAD is trading at a fresh 1 year high on the back of falling oil prices but the worst performing currency this morning is the Australian dollar, which is down across the board following the RBA minutes which showed concern about the rise in the Australian dollar and its impact on growth and inflation. In other words, risk aversion is being compounded by bad news. Looking ahead, we expect all of the major currencies to remain under pressure with further losses likely.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USDJPY
-EUR
-GBP
-AUD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CAD
+USD (but -USDJPY)
+JPY
neutral CHF, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.3270, Stop at 1.3242, Target 1.3298
2. Sell AUDJPY at 80.99, Stop at 81.27, Target 80.71
3. Sell EURJPY at 126.91, Stop at 127.19, Target 126.63

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.15.2018 EURGBP, CHFJPY, EURJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

At first glance, it appears that the U.S. dollar is under pressure against all of the major currencies as investors wait for Trump’s list of tariffs on China. However on an intraday basis, USD/JPY is holding onto its gains into the NY open and trying to edge slightly higher. With that in mind, a trade war is bad for everyone and negative for risk appetite so its difficult to imagine that we’ll see significant rallies in currencies today. Canada has the largest decline in 10 year yields which explains why CAD is also the weakest currency but after having breached 1.3150, the pair is due for a correction. EUR is struggling to recapture 1.16 and took hit from reports that Angela Merkel’s government is at the brink as its coalition partner plans to end their alliance. While the currency recovered its initial losses this development should limit the recovery in EUR/USD. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are under pressure with NZD leading the slide after weaker manufacturing PMI numbers. The Yen seems to be unfazed by the Bank of Japan’s lowered CPI assessment. The U.S.’ Empire State manufacturing survey and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report are scheduled for release today but the main focus will be on China tariffs. One of my strongest views today is GBP outperformance.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-CHF
+CAD
+GBP

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +USD, +CAD
-EUR, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD
mildly +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURGBP at .8730, Stop at .8758, Target .8702
2. Sell CHFJPY at 110.83, Stop at 111.11, target 110.55
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1589, Stop at 1.1617, Target 1.1561
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3140, Stop at 1.3168, Target 1.3112

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.05.2018 – USDCAD, EURJPY, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

At the start of the North American trading session, there has yet to be any little consistency in the U.S. dollar’s performance but as the session progresses, we should start to see some moves especially with US yields falling. The USD should slip against JPY and GBP, which is benefitting from very strong data. Sterling is the best performing currency this morning thanks to a hotter PMI services report that has lifted the pair across the board. It should only be a matter of time before 1.3400 is broken. The other currencies are struggling with AUD and CAD leading the slide. AUD declined after the RBA rate decision because policymakers emphasized the need for unchanged policy to spur growth and inflation. They also expressed concerns about low inflation and US-China trade tensions. CAD is being hit by the same trade concerns. EUR is hampered by softer data -- PMI services was revised lower and retail sales came in much weaker than expected. The U.S. non-manufacturing ISM report is the main focus today in the NY session and given the strength of NFPs, the risk is to the upside for the release.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-AUD
-CAD
+GBP
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +CHF, +JPY
-USD, -AUD, -CAD
mildly -EUR and -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Bought USDCAD at 1.2975, Stop at 1.2947, Target 1.3000
2. Sell EURJPY at 128.24, Stop at 128.52, Target 127.96
3. Buy EURAUD at 1.5337, Stop at 1.5309, Target 1.5365

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.30.2018 – EURJPY, EURNZD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

I’m back in markets this morning but only trading #2 today and Thursday since we’ll be live trading non-farm payrolls on Friday. Although the U.S. dollar has been very strong over the past few weeks, its pulling back with EUR, NZD and AUD leading the gains. EUR is up thanks to back to back improvements in EZ data. German retail sales came in much stronger than expected, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% from 5.3% and EZ economic confidence increased in the month of May. Is this enough for EUR/USD to bottom? Probably not with confidence votes in Spain and Italy at the end of the week but it is experiencing its strongest rally in nearly 3 weeks today which could continue in the North American session. This is particularly impressive considering that US Treasury rates are up sharply this morning, providing support for the dollar. The main catalyst for AUD and NZD strength is USD weakness because Australian and New Zealand housing data fell short of expectations overnight. Looking ahead, the US and Canadian dollars are in play this morning with ADP, revisions to US GDP and the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement on the calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-JPY
+NZD
+AUD
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

-USD (except vs. JPY)
+EUR, +NZD, +CHF, +AUD
-JPY, -GBP
Mildly +CAD in early NY trade

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURJPY at 126.39, Stop at 126.11, Target 126.67
2. Buy AUDCHF at .7463, Stop at .7435, Target .7491
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.6713, Stop at 1.6741, Target 1.6685

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

More Risk off for EURJPY?

More Risk off for EURJPY?

Chart Of The Day

As the S&P broke its 200-day moving average EURJPY was dragged lower as risk-off flows dominated the day. Could this move persist? Quite possibly as US data continues to disappoint with latest ISM Non-Manufacturing coming in weak. With employment subcomponent dropping by 3 points, chances that NFP tomorrow will miss their mark as well are quite good. All of this has cast a pall over equities which are disappointed by subpar US growth and are starting to price in a slowdown in earnings.

Meanwhile, the unwind in USDJPY and euro’s relative weakness could continue to weigh on EURJPY which is trading at one month lows and could probe the key 130.00 figure if the job numbers disappoint.

Today’s Trades 04.18.2018 – EURJPY, GBPCHF, EURAUD, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning as investors reward President Trump’s progress in talks with North Korea. He confirmed that CIA Chief Mike Pompeo met with Kim Jong Un in North Korea last week, paving the way for an official conversation between Trump and Kim. The dollar should be able to hold onto its gains with the Fed’s beige Book scheduled for release this afternoon, U.S. bond yields moving higher and Dow futures pointing to a positive open. The weakest currency is sterling which was hit by another round of softer data. UK CPI growth slowed to 0.1% in the month of March against expectations for 0.3% rise causing year over year growth to slow to 2.5% from 2.7%. Sterling is vulnerable to a deeper correction following softer wages yesterday. The strongest currency is the euro which refuses to fall in lockstep with its peers partly because of Iran’s decision to stop using dollars in its transactions -- a move that other nations could follow. The biggest event risk today is the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement -- no changes are expected but recent data improvements could encourage optimism.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-GBP
+USD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +USD
-GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -NZD
mildly +CHF, +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at .7841, Stop at .7868, Target .7812 (edited)
2. Buy EURAUD aat 1.5950, Stop at 1.5922, Target 1.5978
3. Sold GBPCHF at 1.3753, Stop at 1.3781, Target at 1.3725
4. Bought EURJPY at 132.71, Stop at 132.43, Target 132.99

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.15.2018 – AUDUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, AUDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currency pairs are under pressure this morning after yesterday’s sell-off in U.S. equities. Although Asian and European stocks were flat investors remain nervous about softer U.S. data and political uncertainty in the Trump Administration. Larry Kudlow is widely expected to be named Gary Cohn’s replacement today but Attorney General Jeff Sessions could be the next one to go. USD/JPY is under the greatest pressure but 105.50 is important support. If the market interprets Kudlow’s nomination as positive for the risk, that level will hold rather than break. The euro is trading heavy after ECB President Draghi’s dovish comments but its losses are moderate compared to some of the other major currencies -- on a flow basis it looks like it wants to take another trip below 1.2350. Sterling is quickly closing in on 1.3900, an important support level. All 3 of the commodity currencies are trading lower this morning with the Australian dollar leading the slide. The New Zealand dollar is surprisingly resilient considering the market’s initial disappointment with Q4 GDP. USD/CAD is on the move again this morning and eyeing another run to 1.30. We don’t think this level will break but the pair could come close to testing it.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-AUD
-CAD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CAD, -NZD
+JPY, +CHF
neutral USD (-USDJPY but +USD vs. other currencies)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDCHF at .7423, Stop at .7451, Target .7395
2. Sell EURJPY at 130.88, Stop at 131.16, Target 130.60
3. Buy USDCAD at 1.2369, Stop at 1.2941, Target 1.2997
4. Sell AUDUSD at .7853, Stop at .7881, Target .7825

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.13.2018 – EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDJPY, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The biggest story this morning is that USD/JPY is trading above 107.00. The currency pair jumped 100 pips in the past 14 hours on the back of overnight gains in the Nikkei. Asian and European equities shrugged off yesterday’s slide in U.S. stocks and now Dow futures are pointing to a stronger open. The rally in USD/JPY has taken all of the yen crosses higher and 107.50 is now in sight. EUR/USD remains under pressure but received brief support form ECB Lane’s comment that the current euro level is no concern. Although this view is not new, the fact that it managed to drive EUR/USD up 20 pips in seconds suggest that the currency pair does not want to fall. GBP/USD is hovering just under 1.3900 ahead of the UK’s Spring Statement -- we think the pair will breach this level and finally break to the upside but the statement remains an unclear risk and there are still conflicting Brexit headlines. Next to the Japanese Yen, the New Zealand dollar is the best performer while the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar trail behind. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will be speaking at 10:15AM NY.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+NZD
+GBP
-CAD
+AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +NZD, +AUD, +CHF
-JPY, -CAD
mildly +EUR, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell CADCHF at .7374, Stop at .7402, Target .7346
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.2334, Stop at 1.2306, Target 1.2362
3. Buy AUDJPY at 84.38, Stop at 84.10, Target 84.66
4. Bought EURJPY at 132.30, Stop at 132, 02, Target 132.58

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT