Today’s Trades 07.18.2018 EURJPY, NZDCAD, EURGBP, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is extending its gains following yesterday’s hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. On Day 2 of his Congressional testimony, investors expect the same sense of optimism. USD/JPY is hovering just under 113 and while another probe above that level seems imminent, we don’t expect a material extension as the second day of his semi-annual testimony is rarely as market moving as the first. However the Beige Book, scheduled for release in the afternoon should reinforce the dollar’s positive bias. Sterling is under the greatest pressure as inflation growth slows on a consumer and producer level. CPI also fell in the Eurozone causing EURUSD to eye a break of 1.16 and GBP/USD teasing a move below 1.30. With oil prices falling further this morning, USD/CAD will try to break 1.3250. Commodity currencies in general are under pressure and we expect this same underperformance today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -CAD, -AUD, -JPY
Neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Short EURJPY at 131.26, stop at 131.54, Target 130.98
2. Buy NZDCAD at 8955, Stop at .8927, Target .8983
3. Buy EURGBP at .8912, Stop at .8884, Target .8940
4. Sell NZDUSD at .6757, Stop at .6785, Target .6729

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.11.2018 USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURNZD, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Escalating trade tensions has been good and not bad for the U.S. dollar and thats why we’re seeing the currency trade higher across the board this morning after the Trump Administration released a new list of Chinese products that are subject to tariffs. China plans to retaliate and investors area waiting with bated breath for their response. The currency hit the hardest by these tensions is the Australian dollar which dropped below 74 cents despite stronger consumer confidence. NZD is also very weak which should not be a surprise as the economy’s underlying weakness is exacerbated by trade troubles. Although US yields are down today and Dow futures are pointing to a significantly lower open, USDJPY is aiming for its March 111.39 high. Producer prices are scheduled for release this morning and a good number could encourage USD/JPY to test resistance. Euro is one of the most resilient currencies at the start of the NY session thanks to the relative stability of German yields and the 1.17 support level. Aside from trade, the main focus will be the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement. The Canadian dollar is trading lower ahead of the event but the market is pricing in a 97% chance of a hike. This tells us that investors are focusing more on guidance than tightening. Looking ahead, risk appetite will be key. If stocks reverse their losses, so will currencies but if the Dow falls 300 points or more, many currencies will extend their losses.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-AUD
-NZD
+USD
+EUR

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR
-AUD, -NZD, -CHF
neutral GBP, CAD, JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8848, Stop at .8820, Target .8876
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7391, Stop at .7419, Target .7363
3. Buy EURNZD at 1.7250, Stop at 1.7222, Target 1.7278
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.22, Stop at 110.94, Target 111.50

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.21.2018 USDJPY, USDCHF, EURGBP, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning as the profit taking on long U.S. dollar positions continue. Another way to look at it is short covering on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD positions. The euro shot higher today on the back of stronger PMIs but the rally is fading into the NY session as Germany’s political risks and the ECB’s dovishness hangs over the currency. The Bank of England’s hawkishness took GBP/USD through 1.33. Like EUR/USD the pair is off its highs but unlike euro its doing a much better job of holding onto its gains. The best performing currencies this morning are the Australian and New Zealand dollars but there’s no specific explanation for these moves outside of short covering and anti-dollar flows. The big focus today is on the Canadian dollar. Not only will retail sales and consumer prices be released, but there’s also an OPEC meeting. There’s a growing chance of a formal hike but thats not certain as OPEC officials say this meeting is focused on reviewing fundamentals. Either way, we could see big swings in the loonie today and if data is strong, it could create a top in USD/CAD.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CHF
-EUR
+GBP

*Trading Biases*
-USD, -CHF, -EUR, -JPY
+GBP, +AUD, +NZD
mildly +CAD but beware of data

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDJPY at 76.01, Stop at 75.34, Target 76.29
2. Sell EURGBP at .8760, Stop at .8788, Target .8732
3. Buy USDCHF at .9900, Stop at .9872, Target .9928
4. Buy USDJPY at 110.18, Stop at 109.90, Target 110.46

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.15.2018 EURGBP, CHFJPY, EURJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

At first glance, it appears that the U.S. dollar is under pressure against all of the major currencies as investors wait for Trump’s list of tariffs on China. However on an intraday basis, USD/JPY is holding onto its gains into the NY open and trying to edge slightly higher. With that in mind, a trade war is bad for everyone and negative for risk appetite so its difficult to imagine that we’ll see significant rallies in currencies today. Canada has the largest decline in 10 year yields which explains why CAD is also the weakest currency but after having breached 1.3150, the pair is due for a correction. EUR is struggling to recapture 1.16 and took hit from reports that Angela Merkel’s government is at the brink as its coalition partner plans to end their alliance. While the currency recovered its initial losses this development should limit the recovery in EUR/USD. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are under pressure with NZD leading the slide after weaker manufacturing PMI numbers. The Yen seems to be unfazed by the Bank of Japan’s lowered CPI assessment. The U.S.’ Empire State manufacturing survey and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report are scheduled for release today but the main focus will be on China tariffs. One of my strongest views today is GBP outperformance.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-CHF
+CAD
+GBP

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +USD, +CAD
-EUR, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD
mildly +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURGBP at .8730, Stop at .8758, Target .8702
2. Sell CHFJPY at 110.83, Stop at 111.11, target 110.55
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1589, Stop at 1.1617, Target 1.1561
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3140, Stop at 1.3168, Target 1.3112

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.06.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, NZDCAD, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning with EUR/USD above 1.1750, USD/JPY above 110 and GBP/USD above 1.34. Euro is benefitting from ECB comments relating to an earlier taper -- a view that we have emphasized after the 9 cent drop in the euro. Buyers continue to snap up USD/JPY ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Australian dollar also erased yesterday’s losses after a much stronger than expected GDP report. Risk ON is helping to take CAD and NZD higher as well and its no surprise to see the CHF and JPY underperform in a positive market environment like today. Yields are up across the board and equity futures point to a positive open. The Canadian dollar is in playwith trade balance and IVEY PMI reports scheduled for release -- the Bank of Canada’s optimism suggests that we could see firmer numbers. U.S. trade on the other hand could fall short of expectations given the strength of the dollar last month and the drop in the manufacturing ISM report.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-CHF
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD
-CHF, -JPY
mildly +GBP, -USD (but +USDJPY)
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8760, Stop at .8732, Target .8788
2. Sell NZDCAD at .9092, Stop at .9120, target .9064
3. Buy EURUSD at 1.1765, Stop at 1.1737, Target 1.1793
4. Buy EURJPY at 129.65, Stop at 129.37, Target 129.93

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USDCAD +28
EURJPY +28
EURAUD
AUDUSD

Today’s Trades 04.25.2018 – EURUSD, USDCAD, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar higher across the board this morning as ten year Treasury yields trade above 3%. With no U.S. economic reports on the calendar, the dollar will take its cue from yields which are likely to volatile during the NY trading session as investors decide whether U.S. rates should stay above or below this key level. All of the major currencies are hit by the dollar strength but an ECB meeting on the calendar tomorrow leaved the euro is particularly vulnerable. With that in mind, the worst performing currencies this morning and the comm dollars which extended their losses on the back of falling commodity prices. Sterling and the Japanese Yen are the most resilient and that’s likely to remain the case as USD/JPY looks at a slow climb upwards. Stock futures are signaling a lower open that could add pressure on high beta currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+JPY (but not vs USD)
-EUR
-CAD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -CAD, -CHF,
mildly +GBP, +AUD, +JPY on relative basis
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2864, Stop at 1.2836, Target 1.2892
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2202, Stop at 1.2230, Target 1.2174
3. Sell EURGBP at .8740, Stop at .8768, Target .8712

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.17.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, CADJPY, NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currencies are trading lower against the U.S. dollar this morning on the back of softer data. The EUR was hit by a lower ZEW survey, GBP fell on the back of weaker earnings, AUD and NZD are pressured by lower industrial production and quarterly GDP growth in China. The U.S. and Canadian dollars are the only ones unaffected so far and the greenback shouldn’t be significantly impacted by this morning’s housing and industrial production reports. Canada has manufacturing sales and the loonie is holding onto its gains ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement. The weakest currency today is NZD followed by the Swiss Franc. With Dow futures pointing to a positive open and U.S. Treasury yields ticking slightly higher, today may be a day of pro rather than anti-risk that could see gains for USD/JPY.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-JPY
-GBP
+USD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-EUR, -JPY, -GBP, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy CADJPY at 85.24, stop at 84.96, Target 85.52
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2368, Stop at 1.2396, Target 1.2340
3. Buy EURGBP at .8638, stop at .8610, Target .8662
4. Sell NZDCAD at .9220, Stop at .9248, Target .9192

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

EURGBP Breaks Key Support

EURGBP Breaks Key Support

Chart Of The Day

After more than a year EURGBP broke below the key.8600 support level which more of an indication of market’s disappointment in the ECB policy than its an overall bullish call on cable. Recent data from the region has consistently hinted that economic growth may have peaked and as we noted today, “EZ IP contracted by -0.8% versus 0.1% eyed in further evidence that growth in the region may have peaked. This puts the ECB in a precarious position as the central bank prepares for a taper of QE just as economic conditions may have deteriorated. This is likely to prevent the ECB from considering any normalization process for the foreseeable future regardless of how much the hawks on the council press for it.”

This view was borne out by the dovish ECB minutes which suggested that the council intends to keep rates at zero for the foreseeable future even as it proceeds with the taper. All of this dovish news helped push EURGBP to its lowest level in more than a year, but whether the pair remains below .8700 will be contingent on UK politics and monetary policy. If anything UK economy is in worse shape the EU’s and any rate hike by the BoE could only exacerbate the slowdown. Combine that with the fact that Brexit negotiations are still stuck on the Irish border issue and the EURGBP break could well be a fakeout that traps eager shorts trying to ride the momentum.

Today’s Trades 04.11.2018 – EURGBP, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning as investors wait for the next shoe to drop. With President Trump set to announce a response to the chemical attacks in Syria, ongoing trade tensions, the NAFTA meeting and the investigations in Russia / Trump’s lawyer, there’s significant headline risk today. U.S. CPI is expected to tip higher given stronger PPI and gas prices but the impact on the greenback may be limited. The FOMC minutes are also due later this afternoon. The best performing currencies this morning are the euro and Japanese Yen. Mario Draghi is speaking but so far there hasn’t been any significant headlines. We are also seeing some profit taking in the commodity currencies as European equities sell off and Dow futures point to a lower open. Global bond yields are down across the board which is adding pressure on USD, EUR and GBP.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-CAD
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF
-GBP, -CAD, -JPY, -AUD
mildly -NZD, -USD (trend is down but data could prop the buck)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8720, stop at .8692, Target .8748
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2612, Stop at 12584, Target 1.2640
3. Sell USDJPY at 106.90, Stop at 107.18, Target 106.62
4. Sell GBPUSD at 1.4189, Stop at 1.4217, Target 1.4161

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning as investors wait for the next shoe to drop. With President Trump set to announce a response to the chemical attacks in Syria, ongoing trade tensions, the NAFTA meeting and the investigations in Russia / Trump’s lawyer, there’s significant headline risk today. U.S. CPI is expected to tip higher given stronger PPI and gas prices but the impact on the greenback may be limited. The FOMC minutes are also due later this afternoon. The best performing currencies this morning are the euro and Japanese Yen. Mario Draghi is speaking but so far there hasn’t been any significant headlines. We are also seeing some profit taking in the commodity currencies as European equities sell off and Dow futures point to a lower open. Global bond yields are down across the board which is adding pressure on USD, EUR and GBP.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-CAD
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF
-GBP, -CAD, -JPY, -AUD
mildly -NZD, -USD (trend is down but data could prop the buck)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8720, stop at .8692, Target .8748
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2612, Stop at 12584, Target 1.2640
3. Sell USDJPY at 106.90, Stop at 107.18, Target 106.62
4. Sell GBPUSD at 1.4189, Stop at 1.4217, Target 1.4161

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.05.2018 – EURGBP, USDCAD, NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning thanks to yesterday’s strong reversal in U.S. stocks and overnight strength in Asian and European equities. For what its worth, Dow futures are pointing to a positive open with bond yields up across the board. This should be drive risk currencies higher but is supporting the greenback instead. Part of this has to do with softer UK and EZ PMIs, which have driven euro and sterling lower. USD/JPY made a run for 107 but with the 50-day SMA capping gains, we have not seen much continuation. The commodity currencies are weak but AUD and NZD are trying to come back while the Canadian dollar slips ahead of its trade balance report. There was a big upside surprise in last month’s release which has investors looking for softer numbers. From the U.S., weekly jobless claims and trade balance are scheduled for release but these reports tend to have only limited impact on the greenback.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-CAD
-EUR
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-CAD, -EUR, -GBP, -JPY
neutral AUD, NZD, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDCAD at .9311, Stop at .9283, Target .9340
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2770, Stop at 1.2742, Target 1.2798
3. Buy EURGBP at .8732, Stop at .8704, Target .8760

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

EUR/GBP Could Drop to .8800

EUR/GBP Could Drop to .8800

Chart Of The Day

EUR/GBP Could Drop to .8800

One of the biggest stories this past week was European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s post monetary policy meeting comments. They sent the euro tumbling against the U.S. dollar because Draghi was not nearly as optimistic as the changes in the policy statement suggests. The central bank head emphasized the need for policy accommodation, the downside risks related to global factors, the strong euro and protectionist threats. The ECB lowered their 2019 inflation forecast as Draghi warned that underlying inflation remains subdued, “victory hasn’t been declared” and therefore “ECB policy will continue to be reactive.” Taking all of this into consideration, the ECB is telling us that while they are more confident in the economy, they don’t plan to taper quickly. For this reason, we believe that euro will underperform other major currencies in the coming week and we expect further losses against sterling. There’s absolutely nothing on the UK calendar and data hasn’t been that terrible -- service sector activity accelerated and while the trade deficit expanded slightly, industrial production rebounded at the start of the year. If ris appetite improves we should see sterling outperform the euro.

Technically, we’ve seen 3 days of lower highs and lower lows in EUR/GBP. This move took the currency pair below the first standard deviation Bollinger Band. There’s a lot of support near .8845, but we believe that the sell-off could extend to .8800.

Today’s Trades 03.05.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, AUDCAD, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning except the Japanese Yen, though USD/JPY has found support above 105.50. What’s interesting about this morning’s move is that its not necessarily driven by risk aversion as European stocks trade higher and Dow futures point to a only a modestly lower open. The markets are slightly nervous about the elections in Europe, encouraged by the stronger PMI data in the UK and eager to take USD/CAD to fresh 8 month highs. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are also under pressure but unlikely to see any big movements until U.S. stocks move significantly in one direction or another. This is a big week in the FX market with 4 central bank rate decisions on the calendar (RBA, BoJ, ECB, BoC) and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Today, the ISM non-manufacturing index will be released and its important because its a leading indicator for NFP. Trade wars are still on everyone’s minds but with no new antagonism from China and other foreign nations over the weekend , it has taken a backseat to Europe’s political developments.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-CAD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD,
-EUR, -CAD, -AUD, -NZD, -CHF
mildly +GBP
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURGBP at .8904, Stop at .8932, Target .8876
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2299, Stop at 1.2327, Target 1.2271
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7746, Stop at .7774, Target .7718
4. Buy AUDCAD at 1.0010, Stop at .9982, Target 1.0038

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT