Today’s Trades 08.08.2018 USDCHF, AUDUSD, CADJPY, EURCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a steady to slightly positive open but currencies are still reeling from last night’s sell-off in Asian equities. Chinese stocks dropped more than 1% as ongoing concerns about U.S.-China trade tension continues to pressure the markets. The Yuan resumed its slide despite mixed Chinese trade data -- the trade surplus declined but exports and imports increased. All of the Japanese Yen crosses are trading lower, led by the decline in USD/JPY. Now that 111 has been broken, the main levels to watch are 110.80 (50-day SMA) and 110.60 (July 26 low). The weakest currency is sterling which fell to a fresh 11 month low today. GBP/USD has not seen a rally in 7 trading days and with no data to support the currency, investors are focused on the growing risk on a no-deal Brexit. The greenback is mixed and a quiet data day means risk on/risk off will drive dollar flows. EUR and AUD are flat but there’s a good chance that we could see some weakness in the NY session. NZD on the other hand should be quiet with the RBNZ rate decision tonight whereas USD/CAD could struggle underneath 1.31.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*
+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -CHF, -CAD
Neutral NZD,

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9955, Stop at .9927, Target .9983
2. Buy EURCAD at 1.5173, Stop at 1.5145, Target 1.5201
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7412, Stop at. 7440, Target .7384
4. Buy CADJPY at 84.85, Stop at 84.57, Target 85.13

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.07.2018 EURUSD, USDJPY, EURCAD, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning against the U.S. dollar on the back of gains in Chinese equities. Yields are up, stocks are up and oil is moving higher. After last week’s declines, we’re seeing a turn around on Tuesday. The Australian dollar is leading the gains thanks to a neutral bias of the RBA who sees inflation lower this year but stronger next year. Eurozone data was mixed but investors interpreted the data as positive for the currency and has sent the pair towards 1.16. Germany’s trade surplus increased but exports were flat and industrial production declined. Sterling is up thanks to higher house prices. With no U.S. economic reports on today’s calendar, traders should keep an eye on equities and Treasuries for direction. The trend of dollar weakness that we saw in Europe should carry over to North American trade.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF
neutral GBP, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDJPY at 111.20, Stop at 111.48, Target 110.92
2. Buy AUDJPY at 82.66, Stop at 82.38, Target .82.94
3. Long EURCAD at 1.5039, Stop at 1.5011, Target 1.5067
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1590, Stop at 1.1562, Target 1.1618

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.10.2018 EURCAD, USDJPY, EURUSD, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Investors are buying U.S. dollars this morning on the back of higher U.S. rates and weaker global data. In the Eurozone, the ZEW survey deteriorated in July, causing EUR/USD to finally retreat after last week’s strong rally. We are looking for the pair to test 1.17 but with significant support at that former breakout level, its not clear if there will be a meaningful break. USD/JPY is eyeing its May 111.39 high -- although there are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today, we believe this level will be tested with USD/JPY extending its gains to 111.50. Sterling is under pressure from ongoing political troubles in the UK and softer than expected industrial production. While USD/CAD is up, oil prices hit new highs today and that should limit the pair’s gains. We are short EUR/CAD because we still think CAD will outperform its ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada rate decision. The worst performing currencies today are the Australian and New Zealand dollars. There’s no specific catalyst for their underperformance outside of regional weakness because business confidence increased in Australia and New Zealand credit card spending picked up in June.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-NZD
+CAD
+USD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD,
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -AUD, -JPY, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURCAD at 1.1594, Stop at 1.5422, Target 1.5366
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1723, Stop at 1.1751, Target 1.1695
3. Sell NZDUSD at .6820, Stop at .6848, Target .6792
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.28, Stop at 111 Target 111.56

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.04.2018 – EURCAD, AUDJPY, GBPCHF, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

China rolled out $50B in tariffs overnight, sending USD/JPY and risk appetite plunging lower. While the greenback has not fallen across the board (it is up versus GBP, AUD and CAD), it is certainly vulnerable to additional weakness in the NY session as Dow futures, which are down 500 points signal a very ugly open. The U.S. is stirring up the trouble so the greenback will be punished but risk aversion makes it difficult for other currencies to extend their gains as well. This morning’s non-manufacturing ISM and ADP reports will still have an impact on the greenback but at this point, it may be a sideshow to trade tensions. Next to the yen, the New Zealand dollar is the best performing currency, rising on the back of AUD/NZD flows. The Australian dollar is down slightly with weaker building approvals offset by stronger retail sales. Australia is also particularly vulnerable to China’s troubles. USD/CAD should rise further as oil prices continue to fall. Euro is up thanks in part to a higher CPI estimate.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CAD
-GBP
+NZD
+JPY
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -CAD, -GBP, -AUD
+NZD, +JPY, +CHF
neutral EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.5750, Stop at 1.5722, target 1.5778
2. Sell AUDJPY at 81.45, Stop at 81.73, Target 81.17
3. Short GBPCHF at 1.3462, Stop at 1.3490, Target 1.3434
4, Sell USDCHF at .9582, Stop at .9610, Target .9554

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Will EURCAD Break 1.58?

Will EURCAD Break 1.58?

Chart Of The Day

Will EURCAD Break 1.58?

All of the major currencies sold off against the U.S. dollar today but the Canadian dollar was unusually resilient in the face of sharply lower oil prices and reports of significant gaps between the U.S. and Canada from Canadian NAFTA negotiator Verheul. The only explanation is the prospect of stronger Canadian GDP tomorrow. Retail sales and trade activity improved significantly in the month of January, pointing to a faster growth. If GDP surprises to the upside, the best currency pair to trade could be EUR/CAD because Eurozone data has weak and the ECB has been slow to adjust their forward guidance.

Technically, EUR/CAD has fallen back below the 20-day SMA and is now poised for a move down to the March low of 1.5760.

Today’s Trades 03.12.2018 – EURUSD, EURCAD, USDCAD, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

So far, it has been a quiet morning in the FX market with the U.S. dollar trading lower against all of the major currency pairs except for the Canadian dollar. U.S. stock futures are pointing to a higher open after Friday’s strong move but investors are reluctant to buy into the rally with a comparatively quieter economic calendar this week. There was zero data released overnight but a possible corruption scandal in Prime Minister Abe’s administration weighs on the yen crosses but its not clear whether USD/JPY has the momentum to extend lower especially with stocks pointing higher. The euro looks heavy and eyeing a move below 1.23. Sterling still has a lot of resistance at 1.39 and the commodity currencies are the best performers with the New Zealand dollar leading the gains.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-CAD
+AUD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CAD
+USD, +AUD, +NZD, +JPY
neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Bought USDCAD at 1.2829, Stop at 1.2801, Target 1.2857
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2309, Stop at 1.2337, Target 1.2281
3. Sell EURAUD at 1.5655, Stop at 1.5683, Target 1.5627
4. Sell EURCAD at 1.5788, Stop at 1.5816, Target 1.5760

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 01.30.2018 – USDJPY, EURCAD, EURGBP, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

If the price action in the FX market on Monday can be characterized by consolidation, the last 12 hours is best described by the word volatility. The dollar rallied hard during the Asian trading session into Europe but collapsed sharply after the London open. It is trading heavily as the NY session begins but trying to recover its losses as pairs like EUR/USD appear to be topping while USDJPY and USDCAD appear to be bottoming. There’s been zero fundamental catalyst but for the past few weeks its lived up to its title of Turnaround Tuesday. We’re also nearing the end of the month and after some very strong moves in currencies, portfolio rebalancing could be affecting FX trade. Eurozone data was mostly in line with expectations with the EZ economy expanding by 0.6% in Q4. UK mortgage data was slightly weaker. Consumer confidence and house prices are scheduled for release this morning but the main focus will be this evening’s State of the Union Address by President Trump -- traders may look to unwind positions ahead of this big event.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP
+USD
-AUD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP
-AUD, -CAD, -NZD
mildly +EUR, +JPY (+USDJPY)
neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell AUDJPY at 87.98, Stop at 88.26, Target 87.70
2. Sell EURGBP at .8803, Stop at .8831, Target .8875
3. Buy USDJPY at 108.64, Stop at 108.37, Target 108.92
4. Sell AUDJPY at 87.98, Stop at 88.26, Target 87.70

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

EUR/CAD to Break 1.50, Head Towards 1.49

EUR/CAD to Break 1.50, Head Towards 1.49

Chart Of The Day

EUR/CAD to Break 1.50, Head Towards 1.49

For the Canadian dollar, all of the past week’s losses were recovered in one day on Friday on the back stronger than expected GDP and employment numbers. It was the best day for the loonie in more than 8 months and a large part of that has to do with how these reports will impact the Bank of Canada’s economic assessment next week. With more than 79K jobs added in the month of November, Canada experienced the strongest period of job growth in 4 years. Full time and part time work increased, driving the unemployment rate to its lowest level to its lowest level since February 2008. While GDP growth slowed in the third quarter, the robustness of the labor market and stronger than expected GDP growth in September completely overshadowed the report. The Bank of Canada has less to worry about in December than in October because everything from retail sales, to the labor market, housing market, manufacturing activity, trade and oil prices improved since the last meeting. The only area that deteriorated was inflation. While that is also a big focus for the BoC, we expect the Canadian dollar to trade higher into and possibly following the rate decision. We think its strength will be particularly pronounced against the euro which continues to struggle with political troubles. . German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to form a coalition government with the Social Democrats but the leader of the SPD party denied talks.

Technically, EUR/CAD collapsed on Friday and such a strong move generally has continuation. At minimum we expect EUR/CAD to break 1.50 and hit 1.4960 but the sell-off could easily extend to the 50-day SMA near 1.4900.

Today’s Trades 11.27.2017 – USDJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, AUDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Currencies are off to a slow start this morning but with U.S. traders back from their long weekend holidays and the U.S. Senate poised to vote on tax reform, this should be an active and busy week for the FX market. We also have a confirmation hearing for Powell, a speech by Yellen, the BoE financial stability report and the possibility of Brexit headlines. The greenback is trading slightly lower across the board as yields give up early gains. This weakness softness should continue as long as there are no positive headlines on taxes this morning. New home sales are due for release and while we think the data could be stronger given the rise in existing home sales, the impact on the greenback should be limited. USD/JPY is very weak and a break of 11.00 would target the 110.50 area. The EUR/USD remains bid though 1.1950 could be a tough barrier to crack. Commodity currencies are stronger across the board and this outperformance is likely to continue in the NY session.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+GBP
+CAD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD
+EUR, +GBP, +CAD, +AUD, +NZD
Neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURGBP at market now .8944, Stop at .8972, Target .8916
2. Sell USDJPY at market now 111.15, Stop 111.43, Target 110.87
3. Sell EURCAD at market now 1.5139, stop at 1.5167, Target 1.5111
4. Buy AUDCAD at .9691, Stop at .9663, Target .9719

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.21.2017 – EURUSD, EURCAD, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a quiet morning for the euro, dollar and British pound which haven’t seen any major moves despite a pullback in yields. Today’s price action has been marked by mild recoveries in the commodity currencies but for the most part, currencies are marking their time. We still believe that the dollar will extend higher ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes but we have 1 more day of trade (Wed) before prices grind to a halt. We also see further losses in the euro as Germany’s political troubles plague the currency. Today’s existing home sales report won’t have much impact on the dollar and Yellen doesn’t speak until after the NY close though we don’t expect the market to react strongly to her words either. AUD is supported by RBA Governor Lowe’s comments last night. NZD will be affected by today’s dairy auction while CAD could trade lower as NAFTA talks draw to a close.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+AUD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP,
+AUD, +CAD, +USD
mildly +NZD
neutral JPY, CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURJPY at 131.97, Stop at 132.25, Target 131.69
2. Sell EURCAD at 1.5012, Stop at 1.5040, Target 1.4984
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1723,, Stop at 1.1751, Target 1.1695

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

EUR/CAD Back to 1.50?

EUR/CAD Back to 1.50?

Chart Of The Day

EUR/CAD Back to 1.50?

The euro maintained a bid throughout the North American session leading some traders to wonder if we’ve finally seen a bottom. Its difficult to say as ECB President Draghi could easily talk the currency down on Tuesday by highlighting all of the reasons why policy needs to remain extremely accommodative but if there weren’t a speech on the horizon, we would say that euro is poised for a move to 1.1700 and higher. Aside from Draghi’s speech, Q3 GDP reports are scheduled for release from Germany and the Eurozone along with the latest ZEW surveys and slightly firmer euro supportive numbers are expected all around. The loonie on the other hand appears poised for further losses as NAFTA concerns grow. The 5th round of talks are being held in Mexico City this week and if you recall, the talks were very contentious during the fourth round. On a fundamental and technical basis, we believe the Canadian dollar will trade lower this week.

Technically, after consolidating for 5 straight days, Monday’s rally in EURCAD has taken the pair right to the 20-day SMA. While this may be a potential area of resistance, EUR/CAD breakouts tend to have strong continuation. If the pair breaks above 1.4875, taking out today’s high, we could see the rally extend as high as 1.50. There’s firm support near 1.4730, as that’s where recent lows and the 100/200-day SMAs hover.

Today’s Trades 11.08.2017 – EURCAD, EURGBP, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With 10 year Treasury yields down nearly 1bp at one point this morning, the U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies. Sterling is the only currency that is performing worst than the greenback because Gilt yields of the same period are down nearly 3bp on the back of a report that BoE agents see weaker investment growth over the next 2 years (no surprise with Brexit)! There are some Brexit talks today that could also affect sterling trade. There was no specific news to explain the USD’s weakness outside of last night’s softer Chinese trade balance which should have driven AUD and NZD lower but instead had greater impact on USDJPY. According to the Chinese government China’s economy still faces uncertainties which suggests that softer growth lies ahead. On North Korea, Trump’s warning to “not underestimate us. And do not try us” had very little impact on the market. The main event today is the RBNZ rate decision -- NZD is trading firmer ahead of the announcement. *I’ll be LIVE Trading it with you starting at 2:45pm NY (same daily webinar link).* We may also see some moves in the Canadian dollar with oil inventory, housing starts and building permits on tap.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-USD
-GBP
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR. -GBP,
+CAD, +AUD, +JPY
neutral NZD, CHF

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 131.74, Stop 132.02 Target 131.46
2. Sell EURCAD at 1.4783, Stop 1.4811, Target 1.4755
3. Buy EURGBP at .8838, Stop .8810. Target .8866

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST