Today’s Trades 11.17.2018 EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPCHF, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are not seeing much consistency in U.S. dollar’s performance this morning as the greenback is trading higher against the European currencies and lower versus the commodity currencies. Sterling is leading the slide as the DUP reiterates their resistance to Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal. UK Cabinet Secretary Lidington said its wishful thinking that there could another EU deal so the decision that Parliament has to make is to accept the current deal or vote it down. Investors are worried that these won’t be very palatable options for the many members of the government who struggle with the decision. EUR/USD came close but failed to test 1.13 -- while the single currency remains under pressure and round numbers are often tested in EUR/USD, a very large option expiring today is preventing the pair from breaking through this level. AUD and NZD are surprisingly resilient in the face of mounting pressure from the US on China. Both currencies shrugged off President Trump’s threat of more tariffs and with a much weaker than expected NZ trade balance. The Canadian dollar is flat as oil prices try to stabilize and we see a small bias to the upside during the NY session. As for the U.S. dollar and USD/JPY it could hold onto its gains ahead of the consumer confidence report but the sentiment should lower given the sharp slide in stocks this month.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+CHF
+AUD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP
+CHF, +JPY, +AUD, +NZD
mildly +CAD
neutral USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 128.58, Stop at 128.86, Target 128.30
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5633, Stop at 1.5661, Target 1.5605
3. Sell USDCHF at .9993, Stop at 1.0021, Target .9965
4. Sell GBPCHF at 12731, Stop at 1.2759, Target 1.2703

Today’s Trades 08.23.2018 EURGBP, EURAUD, USDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currencies are trading higher this morning ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. We know that Powell and Poloz will be the only central bank leaders attending as Draghi, Carney and Kuroda stay behind. Judging from the price action of USDJPY, investors are cautiously concerned that Powell will talk down the dollar because while USD/JPY is holding onto yesterday’s gains, the greenback is trading lower against all other major currencies. AUD/USD traders may be legitimately satisfied with the political resolution in Australia, but relations between the US and China remain chill as their trade talks end with no real resolution. Although the EURO is trading well today, we are growing increasingly concerned about the currency because Italian bond yields are closing in on their highest level in 4 years. We’re only about 4bp from there. Sterling traded strongly overnight and could experience a further squeeze up to 1.29. Higher oil prices and risk appetite is driving USD/CAD lower with the pair likely to make move down to 1.3050. The New Zealand dollar should follow AUD higher especially after last night’s trade data. The greenback is trading with a softer bias ahead of Powell and the selling pressure could remain in place before the Fed Chair speaks.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-JPY
+GBP
+AUD
+CAD
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+GBP, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF, +NZD
+EUR/USD but -EUR vs. other currencies

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.3068, Stop at 1.3096, Target 1.3040
2. Sell EURGBP at .9005, Stop at .9033, Target .8977
3. Sell EURAUD at 1.5887, Stop at 1.5915, Target 1.5859
4. Sell USDCHF at .9839, Stop at .9867, Target .9811

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.31.2018 EURUSD, USDJPY, NZDCHF, EURAUD

Weekly Calendar Calls

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The Japanese Yen is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning after the Bank of Japan failed to raise interest rates. Although the BoJ said they would allow long term yields to “move upward and downward depending on economic and price developments,” they intend to keep rates near zero. They lowered their inflation forecast and pledged to keep extraordinary policies in place for an “extended period of time,” widening the gap between Fed, BoE and ECB policies. The Yen is the worst performer and the strength that we are seeing in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY should continue in the North American session. Euro in particular in performing well thanks to stronger Eurozone inflation and German retail sales data that allowed investors to shrug off weaker EZ GDP. Sterling is also up but GBP/USD is struggling to break above the 20-day SMA near 1.3160. AUD is outperforming NZD as the larger increase in AU building contrasts with the drop in NZ business confidence. The US and Canadian dollars are in play this morning with US personal income, spending, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence numbers scheduled for release alongside CAD GDP. The greenback is rising despite a healthy drop in Treasury yields, but the weakness may be limited to pairs like EUR/USD as BoJ could keeps USD/JPY bid.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-JPY
-NZD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF
-JPY, -NZD, -AUD
-USD but +USDJPY
mildly +CAD, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.1726 , Stop at 1.1699, Target 1.1755
2. Buy EURAUD at 1.5908, Stop at 1.5780, Target 1.5836
3. Sell NZDCHF at .6733, Stop at .6761, Target .6705
4. Buy USDJPY at 111.53, stop at 111.25, Target 111.81

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.20.2018 AUDUSD, CHFJPY, EURAUD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The NY morning starts with a series of damaging trade headlines. President Trump said he’s ready to put tariffs on ALL $505 billion of Chinese goods imported to the U.S. and the German Chancellor Merkel said the E.U. is ready to retaliate against any U.S. auto tariffs. Trade tensions are escalating and not easing causing the Chinese Yuan to fall further. Yuan weakness has been a big story this week and the ramifications will be significant for the region’s economy. But currencies did not have a big reaction to Trump’s latest threats and that could be because investors are growing numb to his antagonistic attitude. With that in mind, we still believe that AUD and NZD will underperform as a result of these latest comments. U.S. yields are also up today, supporting a rally in the U.S. dollar. European Stocks and Dow futures on the other hand have turned negative following the trade talk. The Canadian dollar will be in focus this morning with retail sales and CPI scheduled for release. The lack of U.S. economic reports means the greenback will be trading on headline risk.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD (pre-data)
+EUR
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +GBP, +CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -JPY
+CAD pre-data

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7361, Stop at .7389. Target .7333
2. Buy CHFJPY at 112.63, stop aa 112.35, Target 112.91
3. Buy EURAUD at 1.4820, Stop at 1.5792, Target 1.5848
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3250, Stop at 1.3278, Target 1.3222

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.28.2018 EURJPY, EURAUD, AUDUSD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is consolidating after yesterday’s strong rally. While USD/JPY remains firm at the start of the NY session, the greenback is slipping versus the euro and Canadian dollar. EURO is supported by positive ECB comments and the prospect of stronger German CPI. The recent rise in oil prices makes it difficult for USD/CAD to extend its gains and this morning it is testing the lower bound of its 6 day range. If USD/CAD breaks 1.3250, we should see a quick slide down to 1.3200. The New Zealand dollar is trading at fresh 1 year lows following the RBNZ rate decision. Sterling also hit one year lows despite positive comments from the BoE and higher UK yields. The problem for many of these currencies is risk aversion -- stocks may be flat today but the Chinese Yuan continues its losing streak and the accompanying weakness in Asian stocks makes investors worried about global growth. US GDP revisions are scheduled for release this morning -- we are also nearing the end of the quarter so watch out for rebalancing flows. Given how much the dollar has risen over the past 3 months, quarter end portfolio rebalancing should involve selling of U.S. dollars.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF, +USDJPY
-JPY, -NZD, -USD
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURJPY at 127.62, Stop at 127.34, Target 127.90
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.3281, Stop at 1.3309, Target 1.3253
3. Sold USDCAD at 1.3284, Stop at 1.3312, Target 1.3256
4. Buy AUDUSD at .7353, Stop at .7325, Target .7381

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.05.2018 – USDCAD, EURJPY, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

At the start of the North American trading session, there has yet to be any little consistency in the U.S. dollar’s performance but as the session progresses, we should start to see some moves especially with US yields falling. The USD should slip against JPY and GBP, which is benefitting from very strong data. Sterling is the best performing currency this morning thanks to a hotter PMI services report that has lifted the pair across the board. It should only be a matter of time before 1.3400 is broken. The other currencies are struggling with AUD and CAD leading the slide. AUD declined after the RBA rate decision because policymakers emphasized the need for unchanged policy to spur growth and inflation. They also expressed concerns about low inflation and US-China trade tensions. CAD is being hit by the same trade concerns. EUR is hampered by softer data -- PMI services was revised lower and retail sales came in much weaker than expected. The U.S. non-manufacturing ISM report is the main focus today in the NY session and given the strength of NFPs, the risk is to the upside for the release.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-AUD
-CAD
+GBP
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +CHF, +JPY
-USD, -AUD, -CAD
mildly -EUR and -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Bought USDCAD at 1.2975, Stop at 1.2947, Target 1.3000
2. Sell EURJPY at 128.24, Stop at 128.52, Target 127.96
3. Buy EURAUD at 1.5337, Stop at 1.5309, Target 1.5365

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.18.2018 – EURJPY, GBPCHF, EURAUD, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning as investors reward President Trump’s progress in talks with North Korea. He confirmed that CIA Chief Mike Pompeo met with Kim Jong Un in North Korea last week, paving the way for an official conversation between Trump and Kim. The dollar should be able to hold onto its gains with the Fed’s beige Book scheduled for release this afternoon, U.S. bond yields moving higher and Dow futures pointing to a positive open. The weakest currency is sterling which was hit by another round of softer data. UK CPI growth slowed to 0.1% in the month of March against expectations for 0.3% rise causing year over year growth to slow to 2.5% from 2.7%. Sterling is vulnerable to a deeper correction following softer wages yesterday. The strongest currency is the euro which refuses to fall in lockstep with its peers partly because of Iran’s decision to stop using dollars in its transactions -- a move that other nations could follow. The biggest event risk today is the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement -- no changes are expected but recent data improvements could encourage optimism.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-GBP
+USD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +USD
-GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -NZD
mildly +CHF, +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at .7841, Stop at .7868, Target .7812 (edited)
2. Buy EURAUD aat 1.5950, Stop at 1.5922, Target 1.5978
3. Sold GBPCHF at 1.3753, Stop at 1.3781, Target at 1.3725
4. Bought EURJPY at 132.71, Stop at 132.43, Target 132.99

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.03.2018 – EURUSD, USDCHF, CHFJPY, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While Monday’s sell-off in U.S. stocks carried over to Asian and European equities, it did not translate into further losses for currencies. USD/JPY is back above 106 and trading higher against the euro and sterling. Stronger than expected UK PMI manufacturing numbers failed to lift GBP and we think this is a sign of weakness rather than strength. The second quarter has begun and many traders are back from their Easter holidays though participation is still less than usual. The most important event risk this week will be Friday’s non-farm payrolls report so investors will be looking at all of the leading indicators ahead of the release. However there are no major U.S. economic reports today so between the positive open suggested by U.S. stock futures and the rise in 10 year Treasury yields, we could see further U.S. dollar strength vs. European currencies. Gains in USD/JPY appear to be capped below the 200-SMA on the 4 hour charts near 106.30 for the time being. The commodity currencies are outperforming with AUD supported by the central bank’s outlook for faster growth in 2018. They still maintain a steady policy stance. New Zealand has a dairy auction later this morning.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+AUD
-EUR
-CHF
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +AUD, +NZD
-EUR, -CHF, -GBP
mildly +CAD
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURUSD at 1.2293, Stop at 1.2321, Target 1.2265
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.6000, Stop at 1.6028, Target 1.5972
3. Sell CHFJPY at 111.01, Stop at 111.29, Target 110.73
4. Buy USDCHF at .9567, Stop at .9539, Target .9595

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.23.2018 – EURUSD, EURCHF, EURAUD, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Overnight we saw continued weakness in Asian and European equities but not currencies. USD/JPY is trading back above 105 as stock futures bounce off their lows and 10 year Treasury yields turn positive. Whether this level holds remains to be seen but the for the time being, there’s no signs of an ugly open that could send the dollar to fresh lows. China announced its own tariffs overnight and now that both countries have taken these antagonistic steps, there’s no doubt trade war tensions will worsen before they improve. The Canadian dollar is in focus today with CPI and retail sales scheduled for release. The U.S. has durable goods and new home sales which are far less market moving. Commodity currencies in general are outperforming European currencies with the New Zealand dollar leading the gains.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+AUD
+NZD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +NZD, +GBP
-CHF
neutral JPY, USD, CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCHF at 1.1683, Stop at 1.1655, Target 1.1711
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5978, Stop at 1.6006, Target 1.5950
3. Bought EURUSD at 1.2334, Stop at 1.2306, Target 1.2362
4. Sell EURNZD at 1.7031, Stop at 1.7059, Target 1.7003

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

EUR/AUD – Headed for 1.55?

EUR/AUD – Headed for 1.55?

Chart Of The Day

EUR/AUD – Headed for 1.55?

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar today on the back of cautious comments from the ECB and weaker industrial production. Everyone from ECB President Draghi to members Praet, Coeure and Villeroy all felt that inflation is low and therefore policy needs to patient and persistent because the currency’s strength could drive prices even lower. The uniformity of the central bank’s comments make it clear that they are in no rush to change their forward guidance. Meanwhile the Australian dollar traded higher on the back of stronger consumer confidence, faster Chinese industrial production growth and positive comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia sent the currency sharply higher. According to RBA Assistant Governor Kent, the “good growth we’re seeing, the low levels of spare capacity….raise the risk that inflation pressures will pick up.” He also felt that “markets may be underpricing the risk of faster growth.” As these are the most hawkish comments that we’ve heard from an RBA official, it was no surprise to see the big reaction in the Australian dollar. Fundamentally, the dovishness of the ECB should cause the euro to underperform AUD further.

Technically, EUR/AUD has found itself back below the 20-day SMA. Although there’s quite a bit of support above 1.56, we believe that the pair could start to move lower with a break of 1.56 paving the way for a steep decline to the 100-day SMA near 1.5485.

Today’s Trades 03.12.2018 – EURUSD, EURCAD, USDCAD, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

So far, it has been a quiet morning in the FX market with the U.S. dollar trading lower against all of the major currency pairs except for the Canadian dollar. U.S. stock futures are pointing to a higher open after Friday’s strong move but investors are reluctant to buy into the rally with a comparatively quieter economic calendar this week. There was zero data released overnight but a possible corruption scandal in Prime Minister Abe’s administration weighs on the yen crosses but its not clear whether USD/JPY has the momentum to extend lower especially with stocks pointing higher. The euro looks heavy and eyeing a move below 1.23. Sterling still has a lot of resistance at 1.39 and the commodity currencies are the best performers with the New Zealand dollar leading the gains.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-CAD
+AUD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CAD
+USD, +AUD, +NZD, +JPY
neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Bought USDCAD at 1.2829, Stop at 1.2801, Target 1.2857
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2309, Stop at 1.2337, Target 1.2281
3. Sell EURAUD at 1.5655, Stop at 1.5683, Target 1.5627
4. Sell EURCAD at 1.5788, Stop at 1.5816, Target 1.5760

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.07.2018 – EURUSD, USDJPY, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After Gary Cohn’s resignation last night, U.S. futures have falling sharply, pointing to a significantly lower open for U.S. equities. However stock futures are also off their lows and perhaps for that reason, we’re not seeing significant weakness in USD/JPY beyond the initial overnight post Cohn-resignation slide. Nonetheless, the NY session hasn’t even started so we could still see an exceptionally volatile day in equity and FX trade. With that in mind the earlier strength in EUR and GBP are fading, suggesting that investors may have turned from selling dollars versus high beta currencies because the troubles stem from the U.S. to buying it on risk aversion. Its too early to tell and for that reason, we’ve struggled with setting our morning trades. AUD and NZD definitely appear more resilient relative to EUR and GBP although all of the high beta currencies appear to be rejecting resistance. The Bank of Canada meets at 10AM NY / 15 GMT -- we’ll be live trading that with you in lieu of the 9am webinar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+AUD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CHF
+AUD, +JPY
mildly -NZD
neutral USD, CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5893, stop at 1.5921, Target 1.5865
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.2405, Stop at 1.2433, Target 1.2377
4. Sell USDJPY at 105.77, Stop at 106.05, Target 105.49

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT