*Good morning/afternoon everyone!* The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130. *The MAIN THEMES I see today are* +EUR +CHF -CAD -JPY *Trading Biases* +EUR, +CHF, +GBP, -CAD, -JPY mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD *Today’s Initial Trades* Here’s the summary – 1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912 2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275 3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559 4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +GBP,
-CAD, -JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275
3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

USDJPY – Has the Dollar Turned?

USDJPY – Has the Dollar Turned?

Chart Of The Day

Today’s blowout US Retail Sales numbers should have provided the catalyst to take USDJPY through the 111.00 level, but so far the reaction has been rather muted. US Retail Sales came in at 0.6% versus 0.4% breaking a long string of disappointing months of misses. After a very long hibernation period, the consumer appears finally to be ready to spend and that could spell much better growth for US economy in second half of this year.

The market, however, remains wary with 10-year yields still refusing to rise above the recent highs of 2.30%. It may take another month of strong data to convince dollar bulls to enter the fray, but for now, USDJPY appears to have made a double bottom near the 109.00 level and barring any further jolts of risk aversion the pair should remain supported at these levels and slowly move towards the recent resistance points of 111.00-112.00.