Today’s Trades 11.01.2018 USDJPY, EURJPY, CHFJPY, EURCAD

Weekly Calendar Calls

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Short covering flows are strong this morning with most of the major currencies trading higher against the U.S. dollar. Thanks to the much better than expected Australian trade balance and recent tax cuts by the Chinese, the Australian and New Zealand dollars are the best performers. GBP is not far behind as UK Brexit negotiator Raab’s November 21st target for a deal inspires Brexit optimism. The sentiment is so strong that it allowed sterling traders to overlook a weaker UK manufacturing PMI report. Today is an important day for the British pound with a Bank of England monetary policy announcement and Quarterly Inflation Report scheduled for release. No changes are expected from the central bank but adjustments in economic their projections, how MPC members voted and the tone of Governor Carney’s press conference will have a significant impact on GBP. With the currency in short covering mode, a positive outlook should have a more significant impact on sterling than a negative one. Yields are up across the board which should be good for USD/JPY and the yen crosses. Dow futures are also pointing to another positive open for stocks. Non-farm payrolls are scheduled for release on Friday so the ISM report and jobless claims will be particularly important. The JPY and CAD are the primary underperformers and we expect this dynamic to continue. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.14 and while its not clear whether this level will break we are inclined to believe that the pair will test this level.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-USD (except for USDJPY)
-JPY
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +NZD
-USD, -JPY, -CAD
mildly +CHF, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDJPY at 112.96, stop at 112.68, Target 113.24
2. Sell CHFJPY at 112.53, Stop at 112.81, Target 112.25
3. Buy EURCAD at 1.4907, Stop at 1.4879, Target 1.4835
4. Buy EURJPY at 128.46, Stop at 128.18, Target 128.74

Today’s Trades 07.20.2018 AUDUSD, CHFJPY, EURAUD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The NY morning starts with a series of damaging trade headlines. President Trump said he’s ready to put tariffs on ALL $505 billion of Chinese goods imported to the U.S. and the German Chancellor Merkel said the E.U. is ready to retaliate against any U.S. auto tariffs. Trade tensions are escalating and not easing causing the Chinese Yuan to fall further. Yuan weakness has been a big story this week and the ramifications will be significant for the region’s economy. But currencies did not have a big reaction to Trump’s latest threats and that could be because investors are growing numb to his antagonistic attitude. With that in mind, we still believe that AUD and NZD will underperform as a result of these latest comments. U.S. yields are also up today, supporting a rally in the U.S. dollar. European Stocks and Dow futures on the other hand have turned negative following the trade talk. The Canadian dollar will be in focus this morning with retail sales and CPI scheduled for release. The lack of U.S. economic reports means the greenback will be trading on headline risk.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD (pre-data)
+EUR
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +GBP, +CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -JPY
+CAD pre-data

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7361, Stop at .7389. Target .7333
2. Buy CHFJPY at 112.63, stop aa 112.35, Target 112.91
3. Buy EURAUD at 1.4820, Stop at 1.5792, Target 1.5848
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3250, Stop at 1.3278, Target 1.3222

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.20.2018 AUDUSD, EURUSD, CHFJPY, AUDNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While the U.S. dollar is trading higher against most of the major currencies this morning, the moves are relatively modest. Equities have stopped falling and yields are flat but after yesterday’s high anxiety trade, it is still too early to tell if this is the eye of the hurricane or the calm after the storm. The trade war is brewing strong with political risks continuing to haunt currencies. The worst performing currency today is the Swiss Franc followed by the euro and New Zealand dollar. There’s no news for Switzerland but jawboning by ECB member Nowotny who said he sees the euro falling against the dollar is hurting the currency. The EU also announced plans to impose 2.8 billion euros worth of tariffs on US imports on Friday. NZD on the other hand is pressured by softer consumer confidence and yesterday’s drop in dairy prices. GBP/USD fell to a fresh 7 month low ahead of a second Brexit vote, this time by the House of Commons on whether Parliament has a final say on the Brexit deal. The vote is expected around 18:30 GMT. While the U.S. releases existing home sales and its current account balance later this morning, the main focus will be on ECB President Draghi, Fed Chair Powell and BoJ Governor Kuroda’s comments in Sintra around 13:30 GMT. There’s also a number of OPEC headlines that could affect how the loonie trades. USD/CAD raced above 1.33 this morning and is still trying to figure out whether it has the strength to take out another big figure.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-CHF
-GBP
-NZD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -CHF, -AUD, CAD
+JPY, +USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7388, Stop at .7416, Target .7360
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.1563, Stop at 1.1591, Target 1.1535
3. Buy AUDNZD at 1.0735, Stop at 1.0707, Target 1.0763
4. Sell CHFJPY at 110.32, Stop at 110.60, Target 110.04

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.15.2018 EURGBP, CHFJPY, EURJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

At first glance, it appears that the U.S. dollar is under pressure against all of the major currencies as investors wait for Trump’s list of tariffs on China. However on an intraday basis, USD/JPY is holding onto its gains into the NY open and trying to edge slightly higher. With that in mind, a trade war is bad for everyone and negative for risk appetite so its difficult to imagine that we’ll see significant rallies in currencies today. Canada has the largest decline in 10 year yields which explains why CAD is also the weakest currency but after having breached 1.3150, the pair is due for a correction. EUR is struggling to recapture 1.16 and took hit from reports that Angela Merkel’s government is at the brink as its coalition partner plans to end their alliance. While the currency recovered its initial losses this development should limit the recovery in EUR/USD. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are under pressure with NZD leading the slide after weaker manufacturing PMI numbers. The Yen seems to be unfazed by the Bank of Japan’s lowered CPI assessment. The U.S.’ Empire State manufacturing survey and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report are scheduled for release today but the main focus will be on China tariffs. One of my strongest views today is GBP outperformance.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-CHF
+CAD
+GBP

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +USD, +CAD
-EUR, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD
mildly +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURGBP at .8730, Stop at .8758, Target .8702
2. Sell CHFJPY at 110.83, Stop at 111.11, target 110.55
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1589, Stop at 1.1617, Target 1.1561
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3140, Stop at 1.3168, Target 1.3112

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.03.2018 – EURUSD, USDCHF, CHFJPY, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While Monday’s sell-off in U.S. stocks carried over to Asian and European equities, it did not translate into further losses for currencies. USD/JPY is back above 106 and trading higher against the euro and sterling. Stronger than expected UK PMI manufacturing numbers failed to lift GBP and we think this is a sign of weakness rather than strength. The second quarter has begun and many traders are back from their Easter holidays though participation is still less than usual. The most important event risk this week will be Friday’s non-farm payrolls report so investors will be looking at all of the leading indicators ahead of the release. However there are no major U.S. economic reports today so between the positive open suggested by U.S. stock futures and the rise in 10 year Treasury yields, we could see further U.S. dollar strength vs. European currencies. Gains in USD/JPY appear to be capped below the 200-SMA on the 4 hour charts near 106.30 for the time being. The commodity currencies are outperforming with AUD supported by the central bank’s outlook for faster growth in 2018. They still maintain a steady policy stance. New Zealand has a dairy auction later this morning.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+AUD
-EUR
-CHF
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +AUD, +NZD
-EUR, -CHF, -GBP
mildly +CAD
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURUSD at 1.2293, Stop at 1.2321, Target 1.2265
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.6000, Stop at 1.6028, Target 1.5972
3. Sell CHFJPY at 111.01, Stop at 111.29, Target 110.73
4. Buy USDCHF at .9567, Stop at .9539, Target .9595

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.23.2018 – USDCAD, EURNZD, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a quiet start to what could be another busy day in the FX market. The Fed will be releasing its monetary policy report at 11am NY time and this is viewed as a blueprint for Jerome Powell’s speech next week. Canadian consumer prices are also due for release and as usual, investors will be watching equities which are poised for a stronger open. The U.S. dollar is trading higher against many of the major currencies (EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD) but it continues to struggle versus the JPY. Claims of victory at the latest Brexit negotiations by both sides provided a momentary lift to sterling and we expect the single currency to outperform its peers today. Its the end of the week so there’s risk for reversals but there’s been no clear direction in stocks so not much incentive for profit taking or liquidation.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-AUD
-NZD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD, -EUR, -JPY, -CHF
-AUD, -NZD,
mildly +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.2700, Stop at 1.2728, Target 1.2672
2. Buy EURNZD at 1.6865, Stop at 1.6837, Target 1.6893
3. Sell CHFJPY at 114.32, Stop at 114.60, Target 114.04

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.20.2018 – EURUSD, USDCAD, GBPNZD, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies today but stock futures are pointing to a sharply lower open (of course that could change quickly) as the Dow and S&P 500 hover under key technical levels. This makes USD/JPY’s rally vulnerable to a pullback and puts further downside pressure on other major currencies. There are no major U.S. economic reports but 10 year yields have topped 2.9%. A softer German ZEW survey drove EUR/USD below 1.2350 but at the start of NY trade, the single currency is trying to claw higher. The strongest currency outside of the greenback is the New Zealand dollar which is holding steady ahead of today’s dairy auction. Prices have been moving higher and another positive read is needed to maintain the pair’s uptrend. GBP ran up to 1.4016 on reports from UK minister Davis that a end of year deal is in the cards but has fallen off its highs since then. AUDUSD hit a 4 day low, USD/CAD is finding resistance near 1.26 -- whether a pullback happens from here hinges on the performance of U.S. stocks but at minimum, oil prices are moving up, supporting a decline in USD/CAD.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-GBP
+NZD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD, +NZD
-EUR, -GBP, -CHF, -AUD, -JPY
neutral USDJPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell CHFJPY at 114.57, Stop at 114.85, Target 114.29
2. Sell GBPNZD at 1.9988, stop at 1.9016, Target 1.8960
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.2346, Stop at 1.2374, Target 1.2318
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.2591, Stop at 1.2619, Target 1.2563

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.05.2018 – USDCAD, EURJPY, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The best performing currencies this morning are the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen and whenever that happens, its a sign of risk aversion. After Friday’s 665 point drop in the Dow, investors are nervous that there will be more selling and weakness that drives currencies lower. Stock futures are pointing to a -250 point lower open! This is a busy week in the FX market with 3 central bank rate decisions and a host of other market moving reports but there’s very little U.S. data to key off of so risk appetite will be driving dollar flows. The greenback could extend its gains against high beta currencies like GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD, which are vulnerable to additional profit taking this week. The weakest currency this morning is the British pound which is not surprising considering that the central bank’s meeting and Quarterly Inflation reports are the biggest events this week. PMI data was also softer with service sector and composite activity slowing. The Australian dollar is holding up best ahead of this evening’s RBA rate decision and retail sales report.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-CAD
+JPY
-EUR
-CHF
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

-GBP, -CAD, -CHF, -NZD
+JPY, +USD (except for +USDJPY)
mildly -EUR
neutral AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2425, Stop at 1.2397, target 1.2453
2. Sell CHFJPY at 117.84, Stop at 118.12, Target 117.56
3. Sold EURJPY at 136.54, Stop at 136.82, Target 136.25

Pips banked in #2 and Trade Copier pre-summary
GBPUSD +28
USDJPY -8
EURUSD +2
Total +22

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 01.22.2018 – USDCAD, EURUSD, NZDCHF, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There are 2 big stories impacting the FX market today -- the US government shutdown and the SPD’s vote to begin coalition talks with German Chancellor Merkel. These political developments helped euro take one step forward and the dollar one step back. Euro is one of the strongest performers this morning whereas the dollar is the weakest. However the measured decline in the greenback reflects the hope that a deal will be reached quickly. Amidst active negotiations, the Senate will be voting at noon today to extend funding through Feb 8 and reopen the government. Its not clear whether the bill will pass but the Democrats may be willing to grant the Republicans a few more days to hold votes on extending the status for DACA residents. Meanwhile the sell-off in the greenback has driven the commodity currencies higher with the New Zealand dollar leading the gains. No U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today, so all eyes will be on Washington.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
-USD
+AUD
+NZD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CAD, +AUD, +NZD
-USD, -CHF, -JPY
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCAD at market 1.2461, Stop at 1.2489, Target 1.2433
2. Sell CHFJPY at 115.21, Stop at 115.49, Target 114.93
3. Buy EURUSD at 1.2260, Stop at 1.2232, Target 1.2288
4. Buy NZDCHF at .7022, Stop at .6994, target .7050

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.27.2017 – EURUSD, USDCHF, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All major markets are back online today but trading should still be quiet with many senior dealers off for the entire week. The U.S. dollar is on its back foot, trading lower against all of the major currencies including the Japanese Yen. A decline in U.S. yields and the prospect of a weaker consumer confidence report is underpinning the currency. Euro on the other hand is eyeing 1.19 and we think it could test and break this level in today’s in low liquidity trade. Sterling is also above 1.34 but the best performers continue to be AUD and NZD which have found their way to fresh 2 month highs. Risk appetite, higher commodity prices and end of year profit taking are the main drivers behind the latest moves. The Canadian dollar is also pressing higher and this move has meant USD/CAD has not seen a rally in 6 trading days. However with oil prices falling this morning, the pair could find support near this month’s low of 1.2624.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+CHF
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +CHF
-JPY
mildly +NZD, +CAD
neutral USD and USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCHF at market now .9890, Stop at .9918, Target .9862
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1891, Stop at 1.1863, Target 1.1919
3. Buy CHFJPY at 114.49, Stop at 114.21, Target 114.77

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.30.2017 – CHFJPY, AUDCAD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar may be trading higher against most of the major currencies this morning but the rally is getting overextended and is running up against key resistance. The big news that we expected this week from the Senate is on tax reform and so far, they have voted to advance the bill in the Senate Budget Committee and to proceed with debates. Now the focus is on the final vote which is expected to happen late Thursday or Friday. There are still a host of lawmakers who haven’t said they will back the final bill so it remains to be seen how quickly they will be able to pass it as the vote is still too close to call.
This morning’s U.S. economic reports from personal income, spending to Chicago PMI are expected to be more negative than positive for the greenback. The euro on the other hand appears to be finding support above 1.18 thanks to stronger than expected German labor data. Sterling extended its gains on reports that an agreement on the Irish border is near. The OPEC meeting dominates CAD flows today while AUD and NZD are trying to find a near term bottom.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CHF
+AUD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -CHF,
+AUD, +CAD, +JPY
mildly +NZD, +EUR, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell CHFJPY at market now 113.88, Stop at 114.16, Target 113.60
2. Buy AUDCHF at market now .7464, Stop at .7436, Target .7492
3. Sell AUDCAD at .9753, Stop at .9781, Target .9735
4. Sell USDJPY at 112.31, Stop at 112.59, Target 112.03

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Day Trades 11.22.2017 – USDJPY, CADCHF, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting are due for release today and the U.S. dollar is trading lower across the board despite the prospect of hawkish rhetoric. U.S. yields are also up which should be supportive of the greenback but the mighty buck decoupled from rates after Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned against tightening too quickly in her speech last night. Jobless claims, durable goods orders and revisions to the latest University of Michigan Sentiment index are also due for release but the main event will be the FOMC minutes and U.K. Chancellor Hammond’s Autumn budget. Sterling could be sensitive to the latest economic forecasts from OBR and any significant announcements made by the Chancellor. The euro is holding its ground above 1.17, AUD and NZD are attempting to bottom but the moves look fleeting. USD/CAD is below the 20-day SMA, signaling the possibility of further losses.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD
-JPY
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -JPY, -CHF
+USD, +CAD
mildly +AUD, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy CADCHF at .7759, Stop .7731, Target .7787
2. Buy CHFJPY at 113.36, Stop at 113.08, Target 113.64
3. Buy USDJPY at market 112.06, Stop 111.78, Target 112.34

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT