*Good morning/afternoon everyone!* The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130. *The MAIN THEMES I see today are* +EUR +CHF -CAD -JPY *Trading Biases* +EUR, +CHF, +GBP, -CAD, -JPY mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD *Today’s Initial Trades* Here’s the summary – 1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912 2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275 3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559 4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +GBP,
-CAD, -JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275
3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

USD/ CAD – Peaked?

USD/ CAD – Peaked?

Chart Of The Day

Fundamentals
USD/CAD has turned from one of the sleepiest currencies in the G-10 to one of the most volatile as the price of oil has effectively taken the unit hostage. But lately the swing in oil prices are having less and less impact on the pair as crude settles between $40-$50/bbl. Unless there is another sharp leg to the downside, it appears that the move in the loonie may be over for now with the pair having set a near term top at 1.2800 level. With the market paying less attention to the swings in WTI, the loonie is likely to move back to trading on fundamentals. Tomorrow’s Retail Sales could surprise to the upside especially since Wholesale sales have soared in the past month and that is likely to send USD/CAD even lower.
Technicals
USD/CAD has formed a clear triple top with lower highs suggesting that upward momentum is no longer there. The 1.2800 level remains the operative resistance to the topside while 1.2000 is most immediate near term support.

New Orders for GBP and CAD 02.20.14

Swing

#1 CANCEL EUR/USD, and AUD/CAD Orders

With UK and Canadian retail sales scheduled for release tomorrow, we are adjusting our orders ahead of these reports. UK retail sales could surprise to the upside but given the sharp plunge in Canadian wholesale sales, retail sales should be weak.

New Orders

1. Place Order to Buy GBP/CAD at 1.8622


Stop 1.8522

Close half at 1.8672 move stop to 1.8622

Close rest at 1.8722

2. Place Order to Sell CAD/CHF at 0.7985


Stop 0.8045

Close half at 0.7955 move stop to 0.7985

Close rest at 0.7775

We still have the following pending orders on:

3. Place Order to Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4981


Stop 1.5081

Close half at 1.4931 move stop to 1.4981

Close rest at 1.4881

4. Place Order to Buy AUD/USD at 0.9117


Stop 0.9057

Close half at 0.9147 move stop to b/e

Close rest at 0.9275

5. Place Order to Sell GBP/AUD at 1.8378


Stop 1.8478

Close half at 1.8328 move stop to b/e

Close rest at 1.8278


New Policy: Keep all orders on until canceled. We will allow for 2 live trades at a time

UPDATE! 2 New Orders for CAD 02.07.14, 5 Orders Total

Swing

2 NEW ORDERS FOR CAD. We have 5 orders total. Remember, we allow for 2 live trades at any time. If we think an order should be canceled we will message you

1. Place Order to Buy CAD/CHF at 0.8227


Stop at 0.8167

Close half at 0.8257, move stop to break-even

Close rest 0.8375

2. Place Order to Sell GBP/CAD at 1.7937


Stop at 1.8037

Close half at 1.7887, move stop to break-even

Close rest 1.7837

3. Buy Order for EUR/JPY


Place Order to Buy EUR/JPY at 140.22

Stop at 139.22

Close half at 140.72, move stop to break-even

Close rest 141.22

4. Sell Order for GBP/JPY


Place Order to Sell GBP/JPY at 163.61

Stop at 164.61

Close half at 163.11, move stop to break-even

Close rest 162.61

5. Sell Order for EUR/AUD


Place Order to Sell EUR/AUD at 1.4943

Stop at 1.5043

Close half at 1.4893, move stop to break-even

Close rest 1.4843