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Predicting the future is a tough business, which is why trading is much more a function of trade management rather than proper analysis. Once you begin to appreciate that fact, being right becomes a lot less important while being not wrong becomes crucial to your success.
Why Analysis Provides Little Value in Trading
MAY 30TH, 2014
Trading despite all of the complex strategies that we employ is actually extremely simple and only boils down to three bets. You can bet on continuity. You can bet on mean reversion. You can bet on volatility. That’s it. Everything else we do is just decoration. That’s why traders obsession with strategies is laughably absurd. 90% of the success of your strategy will have nothing to do with its rules and everything to do with the market environment.
Last night I saw Barbara Corcoran on the show who I admire very much for her hustle and no bs attitude and it reminded me of a recent interview she gave to Business Insider (Video here) in which she describes what separates the 40K a year salesperson from the 8M one.
Its not hard work.
Its not intelligence.
Its not personality.
Its the ability to take rejection and move on and try again.
What Separates an 8M Trader from a 40K one
APRIL 11TH, 2014
Whether it be diets or trade strategies how many times are we pitched the ridiculous notion that we can achieve success instantly with no effort or investment of time? Lose 10 pounds in 2 weeks on the bull-t, bull-t Miami diet! Earn 1000 pips in a month on my bull-t, bull-t new indicator that will catch every 5 minute turn in the euro!
It’s all nonsense yet we fall prey to it all the time because we want easy, quick solutions to all of life’s problems. But of course in real life bull-t diets and bull-t trading systems do not work. Is it any wonder that most people lose money in the market and almost no one can lose weight?
How many of you would be willing to trade a system for 150 days straight without any discernable profit? Yet in these low volatility markets that is indeed what must done. We all want instant gratification, especially when it comes to trading which appears to be such an instantaneous business. But in truth gratification in trading as well as in dieting is a grind achieved one small pip and one slow pound at a time.
Why Everybody Loses Money and Nobody Can Lose Weight
JUNE 6TH, 2014
Investment is essentially the art of buying assets. The simplest and surest way to make money as an investor is to simply diversify your portfolio and dollar cost average into your positions over a very long period of time (decades). Investing works because real assets tend to appreciate as economy grows and wealth becomes a simple function of compounding that economic growth.
Speculation on the other hand has nothing to do with investing. It is the art of trading sentiment and by its very nature is bidirectional in form. Speculation also tends to revolve around assets that are price bounded such as commodities and currencies. The simplest, sharpest way to understand the difference between speculation and investing is to consider the chart of the Dow versus the chart of the GBP/USD going back to 1980. Since that time the Dow has appreciated by a factor of 16 (from 1000 to 16,000). Meanwhile sterling has basically range traded from approximately 1.0000 to 2.0000. Unless we face and end of the world scenario currencies and commodities will always range trade and will therefore be instruments for trading sentiment rather than investable assets.
Hidden Leverage That Will Kill Every Day Trader
MARCH 21ST, 2014