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5/4 -- Close USD/CAD at market 1.2873
Moved quickly we hit 1.2858 for +53
Reload at 1.2825, Stop at 1.2625
Buy USD/CAD at market (now 1.2805)
We’ve gotten a serious trend change in USD/CAD after this morning’s horrid Canadian trade balance numbers. Friday’s employment report is likely to show weakness as well after the strong numbers from the prior month. A break above 1.2800 paves the way for move to 1.3000.
4/10 -- Target hit +65
4/8 -- Set AUD/CAD Take Profit at 0.9805.
4/7 AUD/CAD -- Sell at Market (now 0.9870), Stop still 1.1075 -- pair has come within 1 pip of entry numerous times and we don’t want to miss the trade.
Since we are in AUD/CAD CANCEL AUD/JPY trade
3/4 -- BK USD/JPY Big Trade -- Close now at 113.85
BK USD/JPY Big Trade Order
Place Order to Buy USD/JPY at 113.30
Stop at 111.30
Market is selling dollars post payrolls but we don’t think the news is weak enough to warrant this decline. The drop in wages is disconcerting but the improvement in job growth and steady unemployment rate plus the rise in participation should be enough to keep the Fed hawkish after leaving rates steady next month. 113.20 has been support for USD/JPY for the past 3 days, so we want to be buyers slightly above those levels if it drops to that point.
3/3 BK -- Close GBP/USD trade at 1.4145. Its completely ignoring all fundamentals
3/2 -- BK Big Trade -- GBP/USD
Sell GBP/USD at market (now 1.4022)
Stop at 1.4222
GBP Shouldn’t be trading where it is given weak PMI manufacturing and construction. We’re selling GBP/USD again and we’re looking at it as a NEW position. If you DON’T want to double up, DON’T but this misalignment of data at these prices is worth trading
BK Big Trade GBP/USD Sell Orders
Place order to Sell GBP/USD at market (now 1.3868)
Stop at 1.4068
UK PMIs are scheduled for release tomorrow and we have strong reasons to believe that the numbers will be weak given the sharp drop in the CBI industrial trends survey. The trend in GBP is still down and this is a weak where UK data could reinforce the downtrend.
Close EUR/USD at market (now 1.0947) for -60
BK EUR/USD Big Trade
Change Entry Orders to the following:
SELL EUR/USD at market (now 1.0887)
Stop at 1.1087
***If EUR/USD is at 1.0875 or higher, sell at market, otherwise put limit order at 1.0887
BK Big Trade -- EUR/USD Orders
Place Order to SELL EUR/USD at 1.0970
We’re very bearish Eurozone data this week from German retail sales to unemployment so we’re laying out NEW Sell Orders in case EUR/USD rallies. We also think EUR/USD will trade lower as we close into the next ECB meeting. We’ll revisit these orders and other news ones in the the NY session if needed.
2/26 -- BK Big Trade -- Close USD/CAD here at 1.3561 for -77 oil prices have been movingg persistently higher and the correlation between oil / cad appears to have broken for the time being so we’re going to get out and revaluate
BK -- Reload USD/CAD
Buy USD/CAD at market (now 1.3638)
USD/CAD traded lower today despite the 2% decline in oil prices but it is notable that the sell-off stopped right at the 100-day SMA. We believe that a stronger recovery is likely especially with oil prices reversing Wednesday’s rise. We were a bit surprised by yesterday’s reaction to the oil inventory report. Even though refined product inventories fell, the fact of the matter is that crude stockpiles hit a record high. There’s more supply than demand in the market and that is not expected to change any time soon.
2/24 BK -- Close EUR/USD Big trade at market now 1.0977 for +61. Its right above 50-day SMA support. We’ll reload
BK EUR/USD Big Trade Orders
Place Order to SELL Euro at 1.1038
Stop at 1.1238
We have 3 main reasons to be selling euros -- #1 Brexit is negative for all of Europe including the Eurozone #2 -- Weak EZ PMIs point to a weaker IFO #3 Break of 1.1050 is significant.
2/24 -- Close USD/CAD ahead of oil inventories -- flipping to EUR/USD trade
BK USD/CAD Big Trade Orders
Place Order to BUY USD/CAD at 1.3815
Stop at 1.3615
**Flipping the CAD trade on big drop in oil and weak retail sales
2/21 -- Stopped out
BK Big Trade -- GBP/USD
Place Order to Buy GBP/USD at 1.4323
UK Retail Sales are scheduled for release and we have strong reasons to believe that consumer spending increased in the month of January. The British Retail Consortium has already reported a big increase in spending and the decline in shop prices eased. Most importantly the labor data showed fewer claimants and a lower unemployment rate. Wages ex earnings also increased which is good for spending. Finally investors are optimistic about the U.K.’s talks with the EU which is also helping the pound.
Big Trade — USD/CAD Reload, New Orders
Place Order to Sell USD/CAD at 1.3835
Oil prices are rose 10% on Friday and another 1% today. USD/CAD should be trading much lower especially with risk on this morning. We haven’t heard anything yet from Saudi Arabia but there’s a lot of hope that OPEC may finally agree to a production cut. Also their lack of denial which usually comes quickly after a misquote leads investors to believe that oil which fell to 12 year lows this past week finally hit an uncle point. While all of the concerns relating to supply and demand are still there, USD/CAD is steady and the sharp rebound in oil should lead to stronger recovery that could take USD/CAD down to 1.38. Technically we believe that the pair is prime for a breakdown. There’s a very clear head and shoulders pattern with the shoulders capping gains right at the 50-day SMA near 1.40. As long as this level of resistance holds, USD/CAD will take aim at 1.38 and make a run for 1.36.