Today’s Trades 04.10.2018 – USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It was no surprise that Chinese President Xi took the high road by refraining from escalating trade tensions with the U.S. during his speech last night. Instead he stressed China’s willingness to cooperate by saying they could lower trade tariffs on autos and tighten enforcement on intellectual property rights. In return, USD/JPY bounced back above 107 and risk currencies traded higher across the board led by gains in AUD and NZD. The U.S. dollar is still underperforming after the FBI raided the offices of Trump’s lawyer, putting the trail one step closer to the President. EUR/USD is testing the 50-day SMA for the second day in a row and and looks set to break it. Sterling is benefitting from positive BoE comments the Canadian dollar is finally moving lower on the prospect of a NAFTA deal. U.S. PPI and Canadian housing starts/permits are the only economic reports on today’s calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-JPY
+CAD
+AUD
+EUR
+NZD
+USDJPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CAD, +AUD, +NZD
-JPY, -USD (except vs. USDJPY)
neutral CHF, GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDJPY at 107.07, Stop at 106.79, Target 107.35
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.2677, Stop at 1.2705, Target 1.2649
3. Buy AUDUSD at .7740, Stop at .7712, Target .7768

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.15.2018 – AUDUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, AUDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currency pairs are under pressure this morning after yesterday’s sell-off in U.S. equities. Although Asian and European stocks were flat investors remain nervous about softer U.S. data and political uncertainty in the Trump Administration. Larry Kudlow is widely expected to be named Gary Cohn’s replacement today but Attorney General Jeff Sessions could be the next one to go. USD/JPY is under the greatest pressure but 105.50 is important support. If the market interprets Kudlow’s nomination as positive for the risk, that level will hold rather than break. The euro is trading heavy after ECB President Draghi’s dovish comments but its losses are moderate compared to some of the other major currencies -- on a flow basis it looks like it wants to take another trip below 1.2350. Sterling is quickly closing in on 1.3900, an important support level. All 3 of the commodity currencies are trading lower this morning with the Australian dollar leading the slide. The New Zealand dollar is surprisingly resilient considering the market’s initial disappointment with Q4 GDP. USD/CAD is on the move again this morning and eyeing another run to 1.30. We don’t think this level will break but the pair could come close to testing it.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-AUD
-CAD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CAD, -NZD
+JPY, +CHF
neutral USD (-USDJPY but +USD vs. other currencies)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDCHF at .7423, Stop at .7451, Target .7395
2. Sell EURJPY at 130.88, Stop at 131.16, Target 130.60
3. Buy USDCAD at 1.2369, Stop at 1.2941, Target 1.2997
4. Sell AUDUSD at .7853, Stop at .7881, Target .7825

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

AUD/USD – More Gains Ahead?

AUD/USD – More Gains Ahead?

Chart Of The Day

AUD/USD – More Gains Ahead?

AUD/USD traded higher today, extending its gains on the back of U.S. dollar weakness. While there were no Australian economic reports released overnight, AUD/USD traders were relieved that Australia has also been granted an exemption from Trump’s trade tariffs. Although Australia’s steel and aluminum exports are nominal (only about US$213 million each), psychologically this decision highlight the strong relationship between the U.S. and Australia although both parties denied that this had anything to do with military support. Regardless, the Australian economic calendar is light with the exception of some speeches from RBA officials this week – the last we heard from RBA Governor Lowe, although they maintain a firmly neutral policy the next RBA rate move will be up not down because the economy is moving in the right direction as non-mining spend rises by the largest amount since the financial crisis.

Technically, AUD/USD broke out of a 4 day consolidation and appears poised for a move to at least 79 cents. The 50-day SMA sits at .7893 and if that is broken, the next stop for AUD/USD should be the Feb 16th high of .7988. If AUD/USD fails at .79 cents and moves back below .7835, the losses could take the pair to the bottom of its recent range near .7780.

Today’s Trades 03.05.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, AUDCAD, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning except the Japanese Yen, though USD/JPY has found support above 105.50. What’s interesting about this morning’s move is that its not necessarily driven by risk aversion as European stocks trade higher and Dow futures point to a only a modestly lower open. The markets are slightly nervous about the elections in Europe, encouraged by the stronger PMI data in the UK and eager to take USD/CAD to fresh 8 month highs. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are also under pressure but unlikely to see any big movements until U.S. stocks move significantly in one direction or another. This is a big week in the FX market with 4 central bank rate decisions on the calendar (RBA, BoJ, ECB, BoC) and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Today, the ISM non-manufacturing index will be released and its important because its a leading indicator for NFP. Trade wars are still on everyone’s minds but with no new antagonism from China and other foreign nations over the weekend , it has taken a backseat to Europe’s political developments.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-CAD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD,
-EUR, -CAD, -AUD, -NZD, -CHF
mildly +GBP
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURGBP at .8904, Stop at .8932, Target .8876
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2299, Stop at 1.2327, Target 1.2271
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7746, Stop at .7774, Target .7718
4. Buy AUDCAD at 1.0010, Stop at .9982, Target 1.0038

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.26.2018 – EURJPY, AUDUSD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is starting the North American trading session lower against all of the major currencies but it is quietly recovering its losses, particularly against the Japanese Yen as U.S. stocks point to a positive open. Thanks to the early performance of U.S. equity futures and the overnight rallies in European and Asian stocks, today should be a day of improved risk appetite. This could benefit all of the yen pairs and drive the Swiss Franc lower. It should also be positive for risk currencies like the EUR and AUD but on a technical basis, the rallies are meeting resistance which suggests that the USD could lead the gains rather than the demand for risk. We had initially sold EURGBP but exited on Brexit noise. Corbyn’s comments that the UK is still in the dark over May’s Brexit plans and will not be joining a customs union after Brexit is a threat to the currency’s earlier gains. The euro is at the upper end of its 4 day range and Mario Draghi’s speech at 9AM NY could affect how the currency trades. The commodity currencies are also beginning to give up their earlier gains as well with CAD and AUD the weakest performers. Today’s U.S. new home sales report is not expected to have a significant impact on currencies as investors wait for Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Tuesday.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-JPY
-CHF
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-CHF, -JPY, AUD, -NZD,
mildly +EUR
mildly -GBP, -CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9344, stop at .9315, Target .9372
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7861, Stop at .7889, Target .7833
3. Buy EURJPY at 131.68. Stop at 131.40. Target 131.96

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.22.2018 – EURAUD, NZDUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While the Japanese Yen is trading higher against across the board today, the U.S. dollar is down against all of the major currencies except for sterling which fell on the back of weaker GDP. This divergence between the yen and the greenback reflects the battle in risk. After selling off sharply in the last 2 hours of trade, U.S. stocks futures are pointing to only a modestly lower open. Asian stocks took a hit but European stocks have stabilized. Given the recent vol in stocks it is too early to tell whether equities will resume their slide in North American trade. Meanwhile the best performing currencies this morning are comm dollars with AUD leading the gains. Canadian retail sales are scheduled for release this morning and we are seeing profit taking on long USD/CAD positions ahead of this key report. The euro has shrugged off a softer IFO report and while USD/JPY is in a clear downtrend. Jobless claims are also on the calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+AUD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -GBP
+AUD, +NZD, +CHF
neutral JPY, mildly +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDUSD at .7333, stop at .7305, Target .7361
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5710, Stop at 1.5738, Target 1.5682
3. Sell USDCHF at .9377, Stop at .9405, Target .9349
4. Buy AUDUSD at .7819, Stop at .7791, Target .7847

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

AUDUSD – Back to .8000?

AUDUSD – Back to .8000?

Chart Of The Day

What a monster turn of trade in AUDUSD today as the dollar selloff created a massive doji in the pair suggesting that more upside is due. The Aussie initially dove lower on assumption that US rates will almost certainly catch up with Australian rates in the wake of higher than expected inflation. But the anti-dollar flows soon flooded back into the pair and it closing at the highs of the day pointing to a possible run towards .8000.

Today AU Employment data could provide the catalyst that the pair needs to move higher if the data surprises to the upside. Although the market expects no action from RBA, if AU labor market shows further signs of tightening, AU policymakers will have to take the threat of inflation seriously and may change their neutral stance faster than the market believes.

For now, the support in the pair remains at .7850 while .8000 represent serious upside resistance on any upside surprise.

Can AUDUSD Push Past .8000?

Can AUDUSD Push Past .8000?

Chart Of The Day

The Aussie has been on a quite a tear lately picking up nearly 500 points since the middle of December mainly on anti-dollar flows. But as it has approached the key resistance at the 8000 figure the pair has stalled.

Data from Down Under has been good but not great and therefore is unlikely to change RBA’s neutral posture anytime soon. As we noted earlier today, “Australian employment data beat to the upside printing at 34K vs. 9K eyed as labor conditions Down Under continue to show robust growth. Aussie popped on the news but quickly retreated as the .8000 level is proving to be formidable resistance to bulls. Although the job picture in Australia shows steady improvement, wage growth remains subdued and RBA is likely to remain resolutely neutral especially with the currency trading near the .8000 level”

For now, the 8000-8100 corridor remains the key resistance barrier and with triple top keeping a lid on any move higher, but a break about that level would send the shorts scurrying and propel the pair towards the next target at.8500.

Today’s Trades 12.06.2017 – USDCAD, NZDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

This may be a busy week for the U.S. dollar but once again, we are starting the morning with no clear consistency in the greenback’s performance. The dollar is trading lower against the Japanese Yen and Canadian dollar but higher versus euro, sterling, Swiss Franc and Australian dollar. All of this can be explained by the slide in global equities which is causing the Yen to rise across the board and high beta currencies to fall. Asian equities fell sharply overnight, European stocks are down and the Dow is pointing to a lower open. The most important piece of US data to watch this morning is ADP but the impact of this report is generally short-lived. The Bank of Canada meets this morning and we believe that the loonie will trade lower into and out of BoC. Euro and sterling are both on the back foot but sterling seems to be holding at these levels in the hopes of further Brexit developments. AUD gave up earlier gains following last night’s softer GDP report while NZD continues to sing to its own tune, rebounding on nothing more than profit taking.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-AUD
+CAD
+JPY
mildly +USD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -AUD, -CHF
+CAD, +JPY, +NZD
mildly +USD, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCAD at market now 1.2669, Stop at 1.2697, Target 1.2641
2. Sell NZDJPY at 77.27, Stop at 77.55. Target .7699
3. Sell EURUSD at market now 1.1811, Stop at 1.1839, Target 1.1783
4. Sell AUDUSD at market now .7586, Stop at .7614, Target .7558

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

AUD/USD Pre RBA Levels

AUD/USD Pre RBA Levels

Chart Of The Day

AUD/USD Pre RBA Levels

The Australian dollar will be in focus tonight with PMIs, retail sales and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy announcement on the calendar. We are looking for slightly stronger data and unchanged policy guidance but that may not do much for the currency. Taking a look at how Australia’s economy performed since the last meeting, first and foremost, there were fewer than usual economic reports released between monetary policy announcements. Retail sales, the trade balance and Q3 GDP for example won’t be shared until the day of or after the RBA rate decision. Since the November meeting, consumer confidence has fallen, inflation expectations declined and housing activity slowed. Labor market indicators were mixed but for the most part the RBA is happy with the jobs market. Business confidence and manufacturing activity also improved as iron ore prices rocketed higher. These improvements will encourage the RBA to maintain their neutral policy stance while preserving their view that inflation will remain low for some time. Since we don’t expect anything new from the central bank, the impact on AUD should be limited. AUD/USD is still in a downtrend but we don’t believe that the RBA announcement will take the pair out of its .7532 to .7660 range – the catalyst will either be Australian data (retail sales and GDP) or U.S. data.

Technically AUD/USD needs to close firmly above .7650 in order to shake off the downtrend. Even then, there’s resistance between .7680 and .7720. However by the same token, there’s also significant support at .7530. A break below that level could precipitate a stronger move lower down to 74 cents.

Today’s Trades 12.01.2017 – USDCHF, EURGBP, AUDUSD, EURJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar this morning because global yields are sharply lower across the board. Political troubles in the U.S, Germany and Britain are making investors weary of the recent rallies. In the U.S., there was alot of confusion about the tax reform deal when a tax increase trigger was ruled as invalid, pushing a vote to Friday. It is still too close to call and investors will be watching the headlines carefully for any updates on the tax vote. Debates begin at 11AM NY Time. In Germany, Angela Merkel is trying to convince the SPD to form a grand coalition but the head of the SPD said he has not given a green light for another coalition as Germany’s European policy must change. In Britain, the Irish border remains a thorny issue and the hard right DUP party has threatened to withdraw their support for May if she offers any compromises on the border. As a result, USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD are all trading lower. The commodity currencies are a bit higher but also giving up on their rallies. Looking ahead, CAD GDP and employment are due for release along with US ISM manufacturing numbers -- we are bearish on all fronts.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-USD
+GBP
+JPY
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -CHF, -AUD
+GBP, +JPY
neutral NZD
mildly -CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCHF at .9824, Stop at .9852, Target .9796
2. Sell EURGBP at market now .8812, Stop at .8840, Target .8784
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7566, Stop at .7594, Target .7538
4. Back into EURJPY at 133.69, Stop at 133.97, Target 133.41

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.29.2017 – EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, CADJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Right out of the gate, the best performing currency this morning is sterling, which traded higher against all of the major currencies. It is struggling to extend higher at the start of the NY session but with UK yields up 7bp this morning, a further rally is likely. The greenback is holding bid as well, but the move is being overshadowed by the strength of GBP and stability of EUR. As this morning’s UK and Eurozone economic reports were slightly weaker, the strength of both currencies is purely a function of the market’s renewed interest in European assets. The commodity currencies are mostly lower with the exception of NZD which continues to be driven higher by short covering. German CPI is due for release at 13 GMT followed by US GDP revisions and later the Beige Book report. While all of these numbers could have a meaningful impact on EUR and USD, the thunder could be stolen at any moment by headlines in Washington. We believe that the prospect of tax reform will keep the USD bid and we are also looking for a positive outlook in the Beige Book. Dudley, Yellen and Williams speak today and they are likely to remind us that another rate hike may be necessary.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+EUR
+GBP
-AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +GBP
-AUD, -JPY
mildly +CAD
neutral CHF, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Bought GBPJPY at market now 149.58, Stop at 149.30, Target 149.86
2. Sell AUDUSD at market now .7578, Stop at .7606, Target .7550
3. Buy CADJPY at 86.98, Stop at 86.70, Target 87.26
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1844, Stop at 1.1816, Target 1.1872

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT