Today’s Trades 08.21.2018 EURUSD, AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Although the greenback was hit hard in the past 24 hours by President Trump’s criticism of the Fed, they will not affect monetary policy. But it was the perfect excuse for USD bulls to abandon their positions. In the Asia session overnight, the selling gained momentum after EUR/USD broke through 1.15 -- stops were triggered and EUR/USD rallied quickly, taking all of the major currencies higher along with it. However the rally stopped right at the 20-day SMA for EUR/USD and its not clear if the pair will have the momentum to extend beyond that level. The best performing currency this morning is the New Zealand dollar but NZD is vulnerable to losses if dairy prices fail to rise at today’s auction. AUD and CAD are also higher with the loonie likely to gain traction in the North American session for a potential test of 1.30. Last night’s RBA minutes had very little impact on AUD. Brexit talks are underway this morning so GBP could be vulnerable to headline risk but right now it looks like it wants to make a run to 1.2875. Stocks are up, yields are up and oil prices are moving higher -- all signs of a risk on rally.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+AUD
+CAD
+GBP
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-JPY
+AUD, +CAD +GBP, +EUR
mildly +NZD, +CHF
neutral USD but (+USDJPY)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDJPY at 81.18, stop at 80.90, Target 81.46
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1524, Stop at 1.1496, Target 1.1552
3. Buy CADJPY at 84.68, Stop at 84.40, Target 84.96
4. Sell EURGBP at .8978, stop at .9006, Target .8950

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.07.2018 EURUSD, USDJPY, EURCAD, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning against the U.S. dollar on the back of gains in Chinese equities. Yields are up, stocks are up and oil is moving higher. After last week’s declines, we’re seeing a turn around on Tuesday. The Australian dollar is leading the gains thanks to a neutral bias of the RBA who sees inflation lower this year but stronger next year. Eurozone data was mixed but investors interpreted the data as positive for the currency and has sent the pair towards 1.16. Germany’s trade surplus increased but exports were flat and industrial production declined. Sterling is up thanks to higher house prices. With no U.S. economic reports on today’s calendar, traders should keep an eye on equities and Treasuries for direction. The trend of dollar weakness that we saw in Europe should carry over to North American trade.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF
neutral GBP, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDJPY at 111.20, Stop at 111.48, Target 110.92
2. Buy AUDJPY at 82.66, Stop at 82.38, Target .82.94
3. Long EURCAD at 1.5039, Stop at 1.5011, Target 1.5067
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1590, Stop at 1.1562, Target 1.1618

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.19.2018 USDCAD, EURJPY, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

President Trump’s threat to impose another 200B in tariffs on China sent ripples throughout the financial markets. Investors are selling equities, currencies and buying Treasuries. Yields are down across the board and Dow futures, which are down 300 points are pointing to a very ugly NY open. The U.S. dollar is up against all of the major currencies except for USD/JPY and this price action is consistent with risk aversion. While China doesn’t want a trade war, they said they aren’t afraid of one, so headline risk is a serious one over the next few trading days. Expect the language to harden and currencies to soften. GBP/USD is trading at a one year low this morning as pound’s troubles are doubled by Brexit complications -- the government refuses to accept
the Parliament’s proposal on the meaningful vote. EUR/USD is trading below 1.15 as ECB Liikanen’s view that rates can remain unchanged after the 2019 if needed compound the currency’s losses. USD/CAD is trading at a fresh 1 year high on the back of falling oil prices but the worst performing currency this morning is the Australian dollar, which is down across the board following the RBA minutes which showed concern about the rise in the Australian dollar and its impact on growth and inflation. In other words, risk aversion is being compounded by bad news. Looking ahead, we expect all of the major currencies to remain under pressure with further losses likely.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USDJPY
-EUR
-GBP
-AUD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CAD
+USD (but -USDJPY)
+JPY
neutral CHF, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.3270, Stop at 1.3242, Target 1.3298
2. Sell AUDJPY at 80.99, Stop at 81.27, Target 80.71
3. Sell EURJPY at 126.91, Stop at 127.19, Target 126.63

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.24.2018 – EURUSD, AUDCAD, AUDJPY, GBPJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After yesterday’s sharp gains, today’s moves can be best described as consolidation. The dollar is holding firm but many of the major currencies are positioning for a relief rally. Whether that happens or not will determined by Treasury yields, which are pulling back slightly at the start of the NY session. So far, 10 year rates have yet to breach 3% which is the key level to watch. Euro fell on the back of a weaker German IFO report but recovered all of its losses after bouncing off 1.22. Sterling found a bid from stronger fiscal finances but GBPUSD needs to rise above 1.3965 for the positive momentum to accelerate. There’s no specific explanation for why the New Zealand dollar is the weakest currency but AUD and CAD are vulnerable to short covering if U.S. yields fail to extend higher today. For the U.S., new home sales, consumer confidence and the CaseShiller house price index are scheduled for release. While new home sales could benefit from yesterday’s existing home sales jump, confidence could falter as geopolitical tensions in April rattle the markets.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +AUD, +NZD, +CHF
-JPY
neutral CAD, USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDCAD at .9770, Target .9742, Target .9798
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.2214, stop at 1.2186, Target 1.2242
3. Buy AUDJPY at 82.78, Stop at .82.50, Target 83.06
4. Buy GBPJPY at 151.83, Stop at 151.55, Target 152.11

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.23.2018 – USDCHF, AUDJPY, CADJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is starting the new week with a fresh round of gains as the greenback is trading against all of the major currencies. The main catalyst is the 10 year Treasury yield which is hovering just under 3%. There are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today but last week’s momentum is carrying over to this morning’s trade. The Japanese Yen is the weakest currency followed by the euro which shrugged off upward revisions to EZ PMIs. The commodity currencies are also up across the board although the loonie is the most resilient as oil prices stabilize. Its Monday, so its difficult to say whether there will be continuation after these strong moves but minimally USD/JPY looks like its headed towards 108.50. GBP/USD could test 1.39 but UK yields are up quite a bit this morning as well.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CHF
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CHF
-GBP, -AUD, -NZD, -JPY
mildly -EUR, +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDJPY at 82.70, Stop at 82.42, Target 82.98
2. Buy CADJPY at 84.60, Stop at 84.32, Target 84.88
3. Sell USDCHF at .9755, Stop at .9783, Target .9727
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.2780, Stop at 1.2808, target 1.2752

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.04.2018 – EURCAD, AUDJPY, GBPCHF, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

China rolled out $50B in tariffs overnight, sending USD/JPY and risk appetite plunging lower. While the greenback has not fallen across the board (it is up versus GBP, AUD and CAD), it is certainly vulnerable to additional weakness in the NY session as Dow futures, which are down 500 points signal a very ugly open. The U.S. is stirring up the trouble so the greenback will be punished but risk aversion makes it difficult for other currencies to extend their gains as well. This morning’s non-manufacturing ISM and ADP reports will still have an impact on the greenback but at this point, it may be a sideshow to trade tensions. Next to the yen, the New Zealand dollar is the best performing currency, rising on the back of AUD/NZD flows. The Australian dollar is down slightly with weaker building approvals offset by stronger retail sales. Australia is also particularly vulnerable to China’s troubles. USD/CAD should rise further as oil prices continue to fall. Euro is up thanks in part to a higher CPI estimate.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CAD
-GBP
+NZD
+JPY
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -CAD, -GBP, -AUD
+NZD, +JPY, +CHF
neutral EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.5750, Stop at 1.5722, target 1.5778
2. Sell AUDJPY at 81.45, Stop at 81.73, Target 81.17
3. Short GBPCHF at 1.3462, Stop at 1.3490, Target 1.3434
4, Sell USDCHF at .9582, Stop at .9610, Target .9554

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.27.2018 – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher this morning against all of the major currencies as the greenback recuperates from last week’s losses. Global equities also followed the move in U.S. stocks and this morning, Dow futures are pointing to a positive open. Sterling is under the greatest pressure, falling on the back of month end profit taking flows. EUR/USD broke through 1.2400 on the back of softer Eurozone confidence numbers but hasn’t extended its losses YET. USD/CAD is pressing higher despite an uptick in oil prices while the Australian dollar follows gold prices lower. Last night’s Fed comments did not have a significant impact on the dollar though both Mester and Quarles remain optimistic about the outlook for the economy and rate hikes. Looking ahead, US housing data and consumer confidence numbers are scheduled for release. In this otherwise quiet week, confidence data could have a larger than unusual impact on FX trade.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
-CAD
-AUD
+USD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CAD, -CHF, -AUD
+USD, +JPY
mildly -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDJPY at 81.59, Stop at 81.87, Target 81.31
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2412, Stop at 1.2440, Target 1.2384
3. Sell EURJPY at 131.12, Stop at 131.40, Target 130.84

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

AUDJPY – Double Bottom at 81.00?

AUDJPY – Double Bottom at 81.00?

Chart Of The Day

Tomorrow is the FOMC meeting and the market is focused on both the dot plot and the tone of Jerome Powell’s first press conference as Fed Chair. If Mr. Powell remains upbeat about the US economy and maintains a hawkish bias with regard to US monetary policy that is likely to help USDJPY and all the yen crosses, of which AUDJPY remains the strongest.

The pair looks to have carved out a double bottom at the 81.00 figure and while the buyers and sellers are in a tug of war today, any clear signal from the Fed should help it to break out above the 82.00 figure in tomorrow’s trade and set it on a course towards 83.00

Today’s Trades 03.13.2018 – EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDJPY, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The biggest story this morning is that USD/JPY is trading above 107.00. The currency pair jumped 100 pips in the past 14 hours on the back of overnight gains in the Nikkei. Asian and European equities shrugged off yesterday’s slide in U.S. stocks and now Dow futures are pointing to a stronger open. The rally in USD/JPY has taken all of the yen crosses higher and 107.50 is now in sight. EUR/USD remains under pressure but received brief support form ECB Lane’s comment that the current euro level is no concern. Although this view is not new, the fact that it managed to drive EUR/USD up 20 pips in seconds suggest that the currency pair does not want to fall. GBP/USD is hovering just under 1.3900 ahead of the UK’s Spring Statement -- we think the pair will breach this level and finally break to the upside but the statement remains an unclear risk and there are still conflicting Brexit headlines. Next to the Japanese Yen, the New Zealand dollar is the best performer while the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar trail behind. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will be speaking at 10:15AM NY.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+NZD
+GBP
-CAD
+AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +NZD, +AUD, +CHF
-JPY, -CAD
mildly +EUR, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell CADCHF at .7374, Stop at .7402, Target .7346
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.2334, Stop at 1.2306, Target 1.2362
3. Buy AUDJPY at 84.38, Stop at 84.10, Target 84.66
4. Bought EURJPY at 132.30, Stop at 132, 02, Target 132.58

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

AUDJPY to 86?

AUDJPY to 86?

Chart Of The Day

AUDJPY to 86?

The best performing currency today was the Australian dollar which traded sharply higher against the greenback. As a high beta currency, it is not unusual to see AUD trade well when stocks recover, especially after the deep slide that it experienced over the past 2 weeks. Gold, iron ore and copper prices are also up across the board providing additional support to the currency. We think further gains are likely up to at least 78 cents. AUD/JPY in particular should see continued gains as USD/JPY appears be finding support above 108.50. Although the Dow came off its highs, it still managed to end the day up 400 points, which is a significant recovery. Weekly, daily and 4 hour charts show a potential rally up to 86.00 as long as AUD/JPY holds above 84.70.

Today’s Trades 02.12.2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

US equity futures are trading sharply higher this morning thanks to strong gains in Asia and Europe. This stabilization helps currencies find support after last week’s sharp losses. If stocks are able to close in positive territory today, we could see the beginning of a stronger recovery in FX and equities. Although there are no U.S. economic reports scheduled for release, investors are relieved that Congress’ passed a 2 year budget deal that puts a government shutdown behind us. They are also encouraged by reports that the Chinese government may have director shareholders to support the market. A recovery in stocks would drive the Yen crosses higher along with some of the high beta currencies that were beaten down last week. The big question today is whether the equity market recovery can be sustained and if so, USD/JPY could find its way back up to 109.00.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+EUR
+AUD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +AUD, CAD
-JPY, -CHF
mildly -NZD
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.2269, Stop at 1.2241, Target 1.2297
2. Buy AUDJPY at 85.07, Stop at .84.79 Target 85.35
3. Sell USDCAD at 1.2565, Stop at 1.2593, Target 1.2537
4. Buy USDJPY at 108.63, Stop at 108.35, Target 108.91

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 01.30.2018 – USDJPY, EURCAD, EURGBP, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

If the price action in the FX market on Monday can be characterized by consolidation, the last 12 hours is best described by the word volatility. The dollar rallied hard during the Asian trading session into Europe but collapsed sharply after the London open. It is trading heavily as the NY session begins but trying to recover its losses as pairs like EUR/USD appear to be topping while USDJPY and USDCAD appear to be bottoming. There’s been zero fundamental catalyst but for the past few weeks its lived up to its title of Turnaround Tuesday. We’re also nearing the end of the month and after some very strong moves in currencies, portfolio rebalancing could be affecting FX trade. Eurozone data was mostly in line with expectations with the EZ economy expanding by 0.6% in Q4. UK mortgage data was slightly weaker. Consumer confidence and house prices are scheduled for release this morning but the main focus will be this evening’s State of the Union Address by President Trump -- traders may look to unwind positions ahead of this big event.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP
+USD
-AUD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP
-AUD, -CAD, -NZD
mildly +EUR, +JPY (+USDJPY)
neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell AUDJPY at 87.98, Stop at 88.26, Target 87.70
2. Sell EURGBP at .8803, Stop at .8831, Target .8875
3. Buy USDJPY at 108.64, Stop at 108.37, Target 108.92
4. Sell AUDJPY at 87.98, Stop at 88.26, Target 87.70

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT