*Good morning/afternoon everyone!* The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130. *The MAIN THEMES I see today are* +EUR +CHF -CAD -JPY *Trading Biases* +EUR, +CHF, +GBP, -CAD, -JPY mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD *Today’s Initial Trades* Here’s the summary – 1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912 2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275 3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559 4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +GBP,
-CAD, -JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275
3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Today’s Trades 08.28.2018 EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURCAD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is heading in the NY trading session lower against most of the major currencies. The only currency that is underperforming the greenback is the Japanese Yen. Its weakness along with the resilience of USD/JPY tells us that risk appetite remains strong. US stocks climbed to record highs yesterday and stock futures are pointing to positive open. The Swiss Franc is the best performer but the only reason why the euro isn’t matching the Franc’s rise is because it
took some time for the currency to break 1.17. The euro’s rally is also supported by the pullback in Italian yields and comments from Germany’s foreign minister who said he expects the US to revoke tariff threats. The next stop should be the 100-day SMA near 1.1750. While sterling could also move higher on US dollar weakness, the latest Brexit headlines suggest that negotiations aren’t going as well as the UK hopes. Prime Minister May said a no deal Brexit is not the end the world and the UK’s Fox said they made a fair and reasonable offer to the EU. They also said hard Brexit is not off the table. These are not the type of headlines we want to see out of the talks -- UK leaders should be touting progress and the nearing of a deal rather than alternative options. The big focus today are the trade talks between US and Canada. Foreign minister Freeland will be in Washington to resume negotiations and its not clear if we’ll know how the talks went today or tomorrow. The Canadian dollar is trading firmly ahead of the meeting and appears poised for a move down to 1.29. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also extended their gains. US trade and consumer confidence numbers will be released during the NY session.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
+NZD
+GBP
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+EUR, +CAD, +CHF, +NZD, +GBP
mildly +AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.1703, stop at 1.1675 Target 1.1731
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.2899, Stop at 1.2871, Target 1.2927
3. Sell AUDCHF at .7182, Stop at .7210, Target .7154
4. Sell EURCAD at 1.5137, Stop at 1.5165, Target 1.5109

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.17.2018 EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDCHF, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It will be a big day in the FX market with Fed Chair Jay Powell testifying before Congress at 10AM NY time. From his prepared remarks we know that he’s optimistic about the U.S. economy but worried about trade tensions. The U.S. dollar is holding strong against the Yen ahead of the release and flat against other major currencies with the exception of the New Zealand dollar, which is up 0.63%. NZD soared on the back of stronger inflation data, taking out stops in the process. UK labor data was in line with expectations but slightly weaker than the previous month. Global bond yields are lower this morning, oil is below $70 a barrel and stocks are flat. The recent decline in oil leads us to believe that the loonie is due for a correction. We don’t expect much in the way of moves ahead of Powell’s speech but there could be some relative value plays.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-AUD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR. +CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -CAD
Neutral GBP, USD, JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.3145, Stop at 1.3117, Target 1.3173
2. Sell AUDCHF at .7362, Stop at .7390, Target .7334
3. Sell NZDJPY at 76.70, Stop at 76.98, Target 76.42
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1721, Stop at 1.1693, Target 1.1749

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.05.2018 AUDCHF, EURUSD, CADJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning on reports that the US and EU could drop their respective auto tariffs. No formal deal has been announced and there’s no mention by President Trump on twitter so it is too early to tell whether this story has real merit but it is driving risk on flows. However with the U.S. holiday bringing lower liquidity (many traders are off through the weekend) and trade war still a major issue the day before tariffs on China begin, investors remain nervous about retaliatory measures from China. Today’s ADP, Challenger and non-manufacturing ISM reports could also have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The best performing currency this morning is the euro followed by the deeply sold New Zealand dollar. All of the commodity currencies are trying to claw higher this morning. I like CAD in particular because of the continued uptick in oil along with the rise in Canadian bond yields. Sterling on the other hand saw very little benefit from BoE Governor Carney’s positive comments but that should be temporary following yesterday’s strong PMI services data. With the Fed expected to raise interest rates again this year, investors are hopeful that today’s U.S. economic reports will reaffirm the strength of the labor market.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
+AUD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD, +GBP, +NZD
-JPY, -CHF
+USDJPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDCHF at .7331, Stop at .7304, .7360
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1685, stop at 1.1657, Target 1.1713
3. Buy CADJPY at 81.16, Stop at 83.88, Target 84.44

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.30.2018 – EURJPY, EURNZD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

I’m back in markets this morning but only trading #2 today and Thursday since we’ll be live trading non-farm payrolls on Friday. Although the U.S. dollar has been very strong over the past few weeks, its pulling back with EUR, NZD and AUD leading the gains. EUR is up thanks to back to back improvements in EZ data. German retail sales came in much stronger than expected, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% from 5.3% and EZ economic confidence increased in the month of May. Is this enough for EUR/USD to bottom? Probably not with confidence votes in Spain and Italy at the end of the week but it is experiencing its strongest rally in nearly 3 weeks today which could continue in the North American session. This is particularly impressive considering that US Treasury rates are up sharply this morning, providing support for the dollar. The main catalyst for AUD and NZD strength is USD weakness because Australian and New Zealand housing data fell short of expectations overnight. Looking ahead, the US and Canadian dollars are in play this morning with ADP, revisions to US GDP and the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement on the calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-JPY
+NZD
+AUD
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

-USD (except vs. JPY)
+EUR, +NZD, +CHF, +AUD
-JPY, -GBP
Mildly +CAD in early NY trade

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURJPY at 126.39, Stop at 126.11, Target 126.67
2. Buy AUDCHF at .7463, Stop at .7435, Target .7491
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.6713, Stop at 1.6741, Target 1.6685

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

AUDCHF to .7370? – Weekly Chart

AUDCHF to .7370? – Weekly Chart

Chart Of The Day

AUDCHF to .7370? – Weekly Chart

U.S. retail sales may have been the most important event risk on today’s calendar but President Trump’s tweet about China and Russia playing the currency devaluation game puts tensions between the world’s 2 largest economies back into central focus. The Australian dollar is highly sensitive to any pressure on China. The Chinese have been talking about devaluing their currency and if they move forward, it reduces their purchasing power and their demand for Australian exports. We like selling AUD vs. the Swiss Franc because geopolitical tensions are still high and USD/CHF is slipping on the back of softer retail sales.

Technically, lower highs and lower lows signal further weakness in AUD/CHF. The daily chart shows failure at the 100-day SMA and 75 cents while the weekly chart shows significant moving average resistance (50, 100 and 200 SMAs) between .7475 and .7500. We think AUD/CHF could slip as low as the 20-day SMA near .7370

Today’s Trades 03.19.2018 – AUDCAD, USDCAD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With the Federal Reserve gearing up to raise interest rates this week, the U.S. dollar is trading higher against most of the major currencies. The only currency to escape the dollar’s strength is sterling which is up strongly on signs of progress at the latest Brexit negotiations. It appears that some of the transitions terms have been agreed upon but the Irish border is still a major issue. The commodity currencies are struggling the hardest but EUR/USD also seems to be under a bit of pressure after rejecting 1.2300. USD/JPY is trading above 106.00 and with stock futures pointing higher, it could extend its gains though 106.20 is an important short term resistance level. Stock futures are pointing to a lower open which is negative for risk currencies including USD/JPY but the outlook this morning is unclear because bond yields are up across the board.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+GBP
-EUR
-AUD
+CAD
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP, +CAD, +CHF
-EUR, -AUD
neutral JPY, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.3080, Stop at 1.3108, Target 1.3052
2. Sell AUDCAD at 1.0083, Stop at 1.0111, Target 1.0055
3. Sold AUDCHF at .7340, Stop at .7368, Target .7312

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.29.2017 – EURGBP, AUDCHF, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

As it is the end of the month, end of the year and the Friday before a long weekend, there’s a good chance we’ll see unexplained price action in currencies. With that in mind, the dollar remains under pressure, falling to fresh multi-month lows against the commodity prices and extending its weakness versus sterling, euro and the Japanese Yen. There are no U.S. economic reports on the calendar today but 10 year Treasury yields are starting the day lower. While higher yields have not helped the greenback, lower yields are increasing the pressure. This has been a terrible year for the greenback and the downtrend remained intact this week. Momentum dictates that we should see further dollar weakness today but as mentioned earlier, the end of the week/month/quarter/year could exacerbate market volatility so for that reason we are keeping our day trades tight and will be looking to exit trades early.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
+AUD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CAD, +AUD, +CHF, +NZD
-USD
mildly -GBP
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy AUDCHF at market now .7626, Stop at .7598 Target .7654
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.2534, Stop at 1.2562, Target 1.2506
3. Buy EURGBP at .8872, Stop at .8844, Target .8900

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.19.2017 – EURUSD, EURGBP, AUDCHF, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It is a quiet morning in the foreign exchange market with the U.S. dollar trading flat against the Yen, sterling and Canadian dollar. The best performing currencies are the EUR, which shrugged off a mixed ZEW and AUD and NZD which continued to power high on year end short covering. U.S. housing starts, building permits and a New Zealand dairy auction are on the calendar this morning. Although GBP is flat, it is off its highs which is a sign of weakness for the currency. There was no specific news other than ongoing Brexit concerns and a rejection of the 1.34 level. Investors are still waiting for the tax bill vote which is expected to be passed easily. The House vote is likely to take place this afternoon followed by the Senate vote later today or tomorrow. So the dollar could still cheer the victory with a late day boost.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +NZD
-GBP, -AUD, -JPY
mildly -USD
mildly -CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.2857, Stop at 1.2885, Target 1.2829
2.Buy EURGBP at .8828, Stop at .8800, Target .8856
3. Buy EURUSD at 1.1809, Stop at 1.1781, Target 1.1837
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7557, Stop at .7585, Target .7529

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.30.2017 – CHFJPY, AUDCAD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar may be trading higher against most of the major currencies this morning but the rally is getting overextended and is running up against key resistance. The big news that we expected this week from the Senate is on tax reform and so far, they have voted to advance the bill in the Senate Budget Committee and to proceed with debates. Now the focus is on the final vote which is expected to happen late Thursday or Friday. There are still a host of lawmakers who haven’t said they will back the final bill so it remains to be seen how quickly they will be able to pass it as the vote is still too close to call.
This morning’s U.S. economic reports from personal income, spending to Chicago PMI are expected to be more negative than positive for the greenback. The euro on the other hand appears to be finding support above 1.18 thanks to stronger than expected German labor data. Sterling extended its gains on reports that an agreement on the Irish border is near. The OPEC meeting dominates CAD flows today while AUD and NZD are trying to find a near term bottom.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CHF
+AUD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -CHF,
+AUD, +CAD, +JPY
mildly +NZD, +EUR, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell CHFJPY at market now 113.88, Stop at 114.16, Target 113.60
2. Buy AUDCHF at market now .7464, Stop at .7436, Target .7492
3. Sell AUDCAD at .9753, Stop at .9781, Target .9735
4. Sell USDJPY at 112.31, Stop at 112.59, Target 112.03

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 10.16.2017 – EURUSD, EURGBP, CADCHF, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are starting the week with a mixed U.S. dollar that is trading higher against EUR, AUD, CAD and CHF but lower versus the GBP, JPY and NZD. Although we have the Empire State manufacturing survey scheduled for release today, it is a week devoid of any major market moving U.S. economic reports. Instead, Fed speak and geopolitical risks will be key and that’s why USD/JPY is struggling to rise because the uneven U.S. recovery, NK risks and the selection of a Fed chair hang over the currency. The worst performing currency this morning is the Canadian dollar, which has bounced off the 20/50 SMA cross to trade back above 1.25. The euro is under pressure due to Catalonia uncertainty but GBP is powering higher anticipation of positive economic reports this week. We don’t expect an exceptionally volatile NY trading session but we may see continuation on the latest moves.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+GBP
-CAD
+CHF
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -AUD, -NZD
+GBP, +CHF, +CAD, +JPY
mildly +USD,

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Sell AUDCHF at .7675, Stop at .7705. Target .7655
2. Sell EURGBP at .8872, Stop at .8902, Target .8852
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1802, Stop at 1.1832. Target 1.1782
4. Sell CADCHF at .7782, Stop at .7812, Target .7762

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST

Today’s Trades 10.10.2017 – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDCHF, GBPJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower across the board and this weakness drove EUR/USD beyond 1.18 and GBP/USD above 1.32. However as we start the North American session, both of these currencies are a bit softer yet the decline in U.S. rates should keep these uptrends intact. These currencies are also supported by data with Germany reporting a larger trade balance and the UK reporting faster industrial and manufacturing production growth. The U.S. dollar on the other hand is lower on fresh concerns about North Korea. Apparently NK told Russia they have an intercontinental missile capable of traveling 3000 km which would put it within reach of US territory. The commodity currencies are up across the board on dollar weakness and higher commodity prices. There are no U.S. economic reports on the calendar today but Fed President Kashkari speaks today along with Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Wilkins.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+CAD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +CHF, +CAD
-USD, -AUD, -JPY
mildy -NZD,

*Today’s Ideas*

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.1780, Stop at 1.1750, Target 1.1800
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.2515, Stop at 1.2545, Target 1.2495
3. Sold AUDCHF at .7600, Stop at .7630, Target .7580
4. Buy GBPJPY at 148.25, Stop at 147.95, Target 148.45

Cancel ALL pending orders by 3:30PM NY / 19:30 GMT / 5:30AM AEST
Close ALL open day trades by 4PM NY / 20 GMT / 6AM AEST