*Good morning/afternoon everyone!* The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130. *The MAIN THEMES I see today are* +EUR +CHF -CAD -JPY *Trading Biases* +EUR, +CHF, +GBP, -CAD, -JPY mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD *Today’s Initial Trades* Here’s the summary – 1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912 2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275 3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559 4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +GBP,
-CAD, -JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275
3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Today’s Trades 08.29.2018 AUDUSD, GBPUSD, AUDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a relatively quiet morning in the FX market with the U.S. dollar down against the euro and up against sterling. There’s not much to explain these moves because what we’ve seen so far today is more euro positive and sterling negative. To be more specific, Italian yields are down, German yields are up which should support the euro. The UK’s Raab is complaining about EU Brexit negotiator Barnier’s availability -- which is another sign that the talks may not be going well but GBP seems to be ignoring the news. The worst performing currency this morning is the Australian dollar, which sold off aggressively after Westpac raised its variable mortgage rates by 14bp. This makes home payments more expensive for consumers which tightens their pocketbooks and dampens the RBA’s ability to raise interest rates. The Canadian dollar is in play today with the possibility of some updates from Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland’s trade talks with the US and USD/CAD is bouncing off its lows in anticipation but we think its going to head lower as the day progresses because Canada has no choice but to deal. Canada’s current account balance is also due for release. Revisions to second quarter US GDP and pending home sales are due from the US today -- we don’t expect either of these reports to have a significant impact on the greenback as investors focus on risk appetite and trade headlines.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +JPY, +CAD
-EUR, -AUD, -CHF, -NZD,
neutral USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7305, Stop at .7334, Target .7277
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.2893, Stop at 1.2865, Target 1.2921
3. Sold AUDCAD at .9949, Stop at .9476, Target .9420
4. Buy USDCHF at .9768, Stop at. 9740, Target .9796

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.24.2018 – EURUSD, AUDCAD, AUDJPY, GBPJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After yesterday’s sharp gains, today’s moves can be best described as consolidation. The dollar is holding firm but many of the major currencies are positioning for a relief rally. Whether that happens or not will determined by Treasury yields, which are pulling back slightly at the start of the NY session. So far, 10 year rates have yet to breach 3% which is the key level to watch. Euro fell on the back of a weaker German IFO report but recovered all of its losses after bouncing off 1.22. Sterling found a bid from stronger fiscal finances but GBPUSD needs to rise above 1.3965 for the positive momentum to accelerate. There’s no specific explanation for why the New Zealand dollar is the weakest currency but AUD and CAD are vulnerable to short covering if U.S. yields fail to extend higher today. For the U.S., new home sales, consumer confidence and the CaseShiller house price index are scheduled for release. While new home sales could benefit from yesterday’s existing home sales jump, confidence could falter as geopolitical tensions in April rattle the markets.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +AUD, +NZD, +CHF
-JPY
neutral CAD, USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDCAD at .9770, Target .9742, Target .9798
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.2214, stop at 1.2186, Target 1.2242
3. Buy AUDJPY at 82.78, Stop at .82.50, Target 83.06
4. Buy GBPJPY at 151.83, Stop at 151.55, Target 152.11

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

AUDCAD – Headed for 1.0000?

AUDCAD – Headed for 1.0000?

Chart Of The Day

AUDCAD – Headed for 1.0000?

After selling off aggressively on Friday, AUD/CAD extended its losses for the third consecutive trading day. There was no data out of Australia but AUD lagged behind as investors expect continued caution in this week’s RBA minutes. The Canadian dollar on the other hand benefitted from Prime Minster Trudeau’s comment that Trump seems enthusiastic about getting a NAFTA deal. USD/CAD experienced strong gains over the past month and while the Bank of Canada is in no rush to raise interest rates, we could see USD/CAD pullback to 1.30 as oil prices rise and NAFTA concerns ease

Technically, AUD/CAD has fallen below the first standard deviation and the next support level isn’t until the March 9th low of 1.0010.

Today’s Trades 03.19.2018 – AUDCAD, USDCAD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With the Federal Reserve gearing up to raise interest rates this week, the U.S. dollar is trading higher against most of the major currencies. The only currency to escape the dollar’s strength is sterling which is up strongly on signs of progress at the latest Brexit negotiations. It appears that some of the transitions terms have been agreed upon but the Irish border is still a major issue. The commodity currencies are struggling the hardest but EUR/USD also seems to be under a bit of pressure after rejecting 1.2300. USD/JPY is trading above 106.00 and with stock futures pointing higher, it could extend its gains though 106.20 is an important short term resistance level. Stock futures are pointing to a lower open which is negative for risk currencies including USD/JPY but the outlook this morning is unclear because bond yields are up across the board.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+GBP
-EUR
-AUD
+CAD
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP, +CAD, +CHF
-EUR, -AUD
neutral JPY, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.3080, Stop at 1.3108, Target 1.3052
2. Sell AUDCAD at 1.0083, Stop at 1.0111, Target 1.0055
3. Sold AUDCHF at .7340, Stop at .7368, Target .7312

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.15.2018 – AUDUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, AUDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currency pairs are under pressure this morning after yesterday’s sell-off in U.S. equities. Although Asian and European stocks were flat investors remain nervous about softer U.S. data and political uncertainty in the Trump Administration. Larry Kudlow is widely expected to be named Gary Cohn’s replacement today but Attorney General Jeff Sessions could be the next one to go. USD/JPY is under the greatest pressure but 105.50 is important support. If the market interprets Kudlow’s nomination as positive for the risk, that level will hold rather than break. The euro is trading heavy after ECB President Draghi’s dovish comments but its losses are moderate compared to some of the other major currencies -- on a flow basis it looks like it wants to take another trip below 1.2350. Sterling is quickly closing in on 1.3900, an important support level. All 3 of the commodity currencies are trading lower this morning with the Australian dollar leading the slide. The New Zealand dollar is surprisingly resilient considering the market’s initial disappointment with Q4 GDP. USD/CAD is on the move again this morning and eyeing another run to 1.30. We don’t think this level will break but the pair could come close to testing it.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-AUD
-CAD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CAD, -NZD
+JPY, +CHF
neutral USD (-USDJPY but +USD vs. other currencies)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDCHF at .7423, Stop at .7451, Target .7395
2. Sell EURJPY at 130.88, Stop at 131.16, Target 130.60
3. Buy USDCAD at 1.2369, Stop at 1.2941, Target 1.2997
4. Sell AUDUSD at .7853, Stop at .7881, Target .7825

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 03.05.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, AUDCAD, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning except the Japanese Yen, though USD/JPY has found support above 105.50. What’s interesting about this morning’s move is that its not necessarily driven by risk aversion as European stocks trade higher and Dow futures point to a only a modestly lower open. The markets are slightly nervous about the elections in Europe, encouraged by the stronger PMI data in the UK and eager to take USD/CAD to fresh 8 month highs. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are also under pressure but unlikely to see any big movements until U.S. stocks move significantly in one direction or another. This is a big week in the FX market with 4 central bank rate decisions on the calendar (RBA, BoJ, ECB, BoC) and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Today, the ISM non-manufacturing index will be released and its important because its a leading indicator for NFP. Trade wars are still on everyone’s minds but with no new antagonism from China and other foreign nations over the weekend , it has taken a backseat to Europe’s political developments.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-CAD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD,
-EUR, -CAD, -AUD, -NZD, -CHF
mildly +GBP
neutral JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURGBP at .8904, Stop at .8932, Target .8876
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2299, Stop at 1.2327, Target 1.2271
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7746, Stop at .7774, Target .7718
4. Buy AUDCAD at 1.0010, Stop at .9982, Target 1.0038

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.07.2017 – USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning despite a marginal pullback in U.S. yields. The commodity currencies are the worst performers with CAD extending its slide following yesterday’s Bank of Canada statement. The Australian dollar has slipped on the back of softer trade data. Sterling is the most resilient as investors hope for a Brexit deal. Time is running out for Prime Minister May and the pressure is on for the leader of the UK to strike a deal with the DUP and the EU. With the EU Summit slated for next week, it’s head Brexit negotiator has given Britain 48 hours to agree to a potential deal or risk freezing the talks for the rest of the year. Sterling bulls are optimistic and while we are skeptical of a deal, we see the possibility of GBP recovery today before some selling on Friday. As non-farm payrolls near, USD/JPY comes into play. The pair has found its way back above 112.50 but 113 remains formidable resistance. Jobless claims and the Challenger layoff report are due this morning and while these numbers may only have a limited impact on the greenback, jobs are on everyone’s minds. We expect the dollar to press higher today as other currencies underperform.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+USD
-JPY
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD, -JPY
neutral CAD (fundamentally positive but meeting resistance technically)
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy EURJPY at market now 132.84, Stop at 132.56, Target 133.12
2. Sell AUDCAD at .9649, Stop at .9677, Target .9621
3. Bought USDJPY at 112.74, Stop 112.47, Target 113.02

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 12.05.2017 – USDCHF, AUDCAD, CADJPY, GBPUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

There is very little consistency in the U.S. dollar’s performance this morning -- the greenback is flat vs. the JPY, up vs. GBP and down vs. EUR and the commodity currencies. The initial uptick in U.S. yields suggests that we may not see additional weakness in the greenback until the ISM report but it remains under pressure for the time being. Although this may be a big week for the buck and today’s non-manufacturing ISM could be meaningful, last night’s Australian data and Reserve Bank rate decision along with Brexit talks had a greater impact on currency trade. While the EU says they are ready to restart talks, Britain is still dealing with their Irish border issue. The Australian dollar on the other hand experienced its strongest 1 day rise in more than a week thanks to stronger data and a less dovish RBA. NZD is in play this morning with a dairy auction on the calendar. The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow and with widespread improvements in Canadian data, we believe the loonie will trade higher ahead of the rate decision. Our strongest view is CAD strength and GBP weakness today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+CAD
-GBP
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

+CAD, +CHF, +EUR
-GBP, -JPY
mildly +AUD (may be overextended today)
mildly -USD
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. sell AUDCAD at .9659, Stop at .9687, Target .9631
2. Buy CADJPY at 89.01, Stop at 88.73, Target 89.29
3. Sell GBPUSD at 1.3419, Stop at 1.3447, Target 1.3391
4. Sell USDCHF at .9843, Stop at .9871, Target .9815

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.30.2017 – CHFJPY, AUDCAD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar may be trading higher against most of the major currencies this morning but the rally is getting overextended and is running up against key resistance. The big news that we expected this week from the Senate is on tax reform and so far, they have voted to advance the bill in the Senate Budget Committee and to proceed with debates. Now the focus is on the final vote which is expected to happen late Thursday or Friday. There are still a host of lawmakers who haven’t said they will back the final bill so it remains to be seen how quickly they will be able to pass it as the vote is still too close to call.
This morning’s U.S. economic reports from personal income, spending to Chicago PMI are expected to be more negative than positive for the greenback. The euro on the other hand appears to be finding support above 1.18 thanks to stronger than expected German labor data. Sterling extended its gains on reports that an agreement on the Irish border is near. The OPEC meeting dominates CAD flows today while AUD and NZD are trying to find a near term bottom.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CHF
+AUD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -CHF,
+AUD, +CAD, +JPY
mildly +NZD, +EUR, +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell CHFJPY at market now 113.88, Stop at 114.16, Target 113.60
2. Buy AUDCHF at market now .7464, Stop at .7436, Target .7492
3. Sell AUDCAD at .9753, Stop at .9781, Target .9735
4. Sell USDJPY at 112.31, Stop at 112.59, Target 112.03

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 11.27.2017 – USDJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, AUDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Currencies are off to a slow start this morning but with U.S. traders back from their long weekend holidays and the U.S. Senate poised to vote on tax reform, this should be an active and busy week for the FX market. We also have a confirmation hearing for Powell, a speech by Yellen, the BoE financial stability report and the possibility of Brexit headlines. The greenback is trading slightly lower across the board as yields give up early gains. This weakness softness should continue as long as there are no positive headlines on taxes this morning. New home sales are due for release and while we think the data could be stronger given the rise in existing home sales, the impact on the greenback should be limited. USD/JPY is very weak and a break of 11.00 would target the 110.50 area. The EUR/USD remains bid though 1.1950 could be a tough barrier to crack. Commodity currencies are stronger across the board and this outperformance is likely to continue in the NY session.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+GBP
+CAD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD
+EUR, +GBP, +CAD, +AUD, +NZD
Neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURGBP at market now .8944, Stop at .8972, Target .8916
2. Sell USDJPY at market now 111.15, Stop 111.43, Target 110.87
3. Sell EURCAD at market now 1.5139, stop at 1.5167, Target 1.5111
4. Buy AUDCAD at .9691, Stop at .9663, Target .9719

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

AUDCAD – Pop to Parity?

AUDCAD – Pop to Parity?

Chart Of The Day

Everyone has their eyes out for the Bank of Canada rate decision tomorrow at 1000 NY time. Aside from the ECB meeting a day later it is the most important event of the week. The market is leaning heavily long loonie anticipating that the BOC will signal that a rate hike is coming in October and given the positive stream of Canadian data of late the speculation may be correct. Still, there is not an insubstantial chance that the BOC may choose to hold its powder dry and remain stationary for the time being.

Meanwhile the RBA last night reaffirmed it neutral stance but clearly tilted in the hawkish direction by noting that the growth and inflation were likely to increase and at very minimum suggesting that no easing will occur in the immediate future. This has helped to push the Aussie through the key .8000 level and it remains well bid into the New York close.

If the BOC does surprise to the downside the loonie is sure to crash which will pop AUDCAD through the parity level almost instantly. On the other hand, if the Canadian monetary authorities confirm a hike, the move could be more muted given the massive rally already in place.