BK USD/JPY Big Trade +40

Swing

Out of USD/JPY Trade for +40

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Move to 120.67 to lock in +40 on trade

***USD/JPY Big Trade Second Entry TRIGGERED

***USD/JPY Big Trade First Entry at 120.27 TRIGGERED


BK USD/JPY Big Trade Alert – Time to Reload

***BK USDJPY Big Trade Order Changes

We are moving our USD/JPY entry levels up:

Place Order to Buy 1 lot USDJPY at 120.27

Place Order to Buy 1 More at 118.85

Stop for ALL at 117.75


The Trade:

USD/JPY

Place Order to Buy 1 lot USD/JPY at 118.30

Place Order to Buy 1 Additional lot at 116.90

Stop for ALL 115.35

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

—--

It is time to Buy USD/JPY.

Less hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen should give us an opportunity to snap up USD/JPY at a lower level. While the Fed is in no rush to raise interest rates, Yellen’s optimistic outlook for the economy and inflation leaves a 2015 rate hike on the table.

The recent pullback in the dollar indicates that investors had hoped for more from Yellen but a June rate hike was never realistic. The central bank doesn’t want to raise interest rates too quickly because they fear that a premature increase would undermine the recovery and hamper job healing.

Instead we expect forward guidance to be changed in June and followed up with a rate hike in September. Market expectations had gotten ahead of themselves in recent weeks so a pullback is natural but the most important thing to remember is that the Fed will still raise interest rates in 2015.

Therefore we still think that buying dollars is the best bet and with the latest CFTC data showing a reduction in USD/JPY longs, there’s plenty of opportunity to the upside once the enthusiasm for Fed tightening returns. The next catalyst for a rally in USD/JPY will be next week’s ISM and non-farm payroll reports. If U.S. data starts to improve again, investors will return to the dollar.

The Chart

USDJPY022515

USD/JPY
Place Order to Buy 1 lot USD/JPY at 118.30

Place Order to Buy 1 Additional lot at 116.90

Stop for ALL 115.35

BK USD/JPY Big Trade +42

Swing

BK Big Trades -- Out of USD/JPY for +42 on trade

BK USD/JPY Big Trade -- Close 1/2 at 119.27, for +42, move stop on rest to Breakeven which is 118.85

FYI BK USD/JPY Big Trade Update -- Second Entry Triggered previously as well for Average Entry of 118.85

BK USD/JPY Big Trade -- First Buy at 119.25 TRIGGERED

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Alert -- Time to Buy USD/JPY Again

As we anticipated, weaker US retail sales has driven the dollar lower against the yen and this move brings USD/JPY into the “value zone.” We are still long term bullish dollars and believe it is time to reestablish our position near current levels. As such place the following orders:

Place order to Buy 1 Lot USD/JPY at 119.25

Place order to Buy 1 Lot USD/JPY at 118.45

Stop 117.70

BK EUR/USD Big Trade Update Out for +80

Swing

BK EUR/USD Big Trade Update -- Out for +80

BK EURUSD Big Trade Update -- Move Stop to 1.1310 to lock in +80

BK EUR/USD Big Trade -- Move Stop to 1.1390 to Neutralize Risk


1.1390 Sell triggered

***Reload EUR/USD orders

Place order to SELL AGAIN at 1.1390 AND

Place Order to SELL 1 more lot at 1.1580

Stop for whole position at 1.1675

BK EUR/USD Out for +75

BK EUR/USD Big Trade -- Move stop to 1.1350 to lock in 75 pips

BK EURO Big Trade Alert -- Post QE Continuation

The Trade:

EUR/USD

Place Order to SELL 1 lot EUR/USD at 1.1425

Place Order to SELL 1 more lot at 1.1580

Stop for whole position at 1.1675

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

—--

It is time to SELL EUROS. The European Central Bank’s decision to start buying government bonds took a major toll on the EUR/USD. The currency pair lost more than 4.5% in a matter of days with the move exceeding our initial 500-pip target. After such a fast and sharp decline, a rebound like the one seen Monday/Tuesday is not unusual and expected especially given the massive amount of short positions in the euro. An increase in German business confidence helped the euro recover from its initial post Greek election decline but we believe the gains will be short-lived and investors should continue to sell euros. The electoral victory by the Syriza party raises medium term problems for the euro. The opposition ran on an anti-austerity campaign that is great for voters but terrible for creditors. As the country runs low on cash, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ will need to restructure the country’s loan agreements quickly. Tspiras wants part of their debt to be written off but their creditors, which include the ECB and Germany refuse to do so. If a new agreement is not made, its creditors could withhold the next bailout payment and Greece could face default. Of course, the Eurozone and the ECB have a lot to lose if Greece defaults because the central bank is tasked with maintaining financial stability and this would wreck havoc on European assets. In response to the Syriza party’s victory, bond yields in Europe jumped, reflecting increased uncertainty and ongoing risks for the euro. At the same time the upcoming FOMC meeting should keep the dollar bid. If the Fed leaves its monetary policy statement unchanged, the dollar will rise, sending the EUR/USD pair lower (more in the dollar portion of our commentary).

Even though EUR/USD has fallen from 1.1650 pre ECB to a low of 1.1098 today, Quantitative Easing can mean even greater losses for a currency. Remember, the first round of QE from the Fed led to a 900 pip decline in USD/JPY over the course of 3 weeks and the QE announcement from the BoJ last year drove USD/JPY from a low of 109 to a high just shy of 120 in 6 weeks time. This means there is additional room for the EUR/USD to fall. If 1.1200 is breached again, we could see the EUR/USD hit and most likely break 1.10.

EUR/USD Headed to 1.10

We think EUR/USD is eventually headed for 1.10. Therefore we recommend:

EUR/USD

Place Order to SELL 1 lot EUR/USD at 1.1425

Place Order to SELL 1 more lot at 1.1580

Stop for whole position at 1.1675

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

BK USD/JPY Big Trade +80

Swing

***BK USD/JPY Big Trade Order Adjustments

Place order to Buy 1 Lot USD/JPY at 118.58

Buy 1 more lot at 117.75

Stop 116.80

***BK USD/JPY Big Trade Closed for +80

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Update, Move Stop to 118.70 to lock in +80 pips. Will reload lower if we get stopped out.

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Update -- Move Stop to 118.30 to lock in +40

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Alert -- Time to Buy Again

We are reloading these orders --

The Trade:

USD/JPY Place Order to Buy 1 lot USD/JPY at 117.90

Place Order to Buy 1 Additional lot at 116.75

Stop for ALL 115.35

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

—--

It is time to Buy USD/JPY.

Negative interest rates in Switzerland and Quantitative Easing by the European Central Bank leaves the market looking for alternative safe havens. The Yen is attractive but from a fundamental perspective not nearly as alluring as the dollar because U.S. economy is actually improving while Japanese growth is struggling. The Fed is one of a select few central banks looking to raise interest rates this year with the chorus growing. Regardless of whether they choose to do so in the summer or fall doesn’t matter -- the key is that they plan to do so period and that along with the loss of the Franc as a safe haven should make the dollar more attractive. In the long run, we are still looking for USD/JPY to revisit its 121.85 December high.

USD/JPY

Place Order to Buy 1 lot USD/JPY at 117.90

Place Order to Buy 1 Additional lot at 116.75

Stop for ALL 115.35

BK CAD/JPY Big Trade Update – Stopped Out

Swing

BK CAD/JPY Big Trade Update -- Stopped Out

BK Big Trade Alert Sell CAD/JPY

The Trade:

CAD/JPY

Place Order to SELL CAD/JPY at 93.75

Stop at 95.65

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

The recent decline in oil prices has taken a big toll on the Canadian economy, so much that the Bank of Canada chose to surprise the market with a 25bp rate cut last month. One of the main reasons why the easing was unexpected is because economic data had not really taken a turn for the worse. Data is always released with a lag and we are only now beginning to see what should become a series of weaker reports. This morning, Canada reported the weakest manufacturing activity index since May 2009. Over the next few days, we will continue to receive more economic reports for the month of December and January, a period when oil prices dropped as much as 35%. We expect these reports to surprise to the downside, creating more downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

The recent rally in CAD was driven by a bounce in oil prices but a massive crude oil inventory build up sent prices back below $50 a barrel. This was the fourth consecutive week of inventory build and this excess availability of inventory could limit the recovery in oil. Without a bounce in oil, the Canadian dollar should resume its slide.

We have opted to sell CAD versus the JPY because of a potential miss in non-farm payrolls that could lead to a rally in the Japanese Yen. The employment component of non-manufacturing ISM dropped to its lowest level in 11 months.

—--

CAD/JPY

Place Order to SELL CAD/JPY at 93.75

Stop at 95.65

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

BK AUD/USD Big Trade Alert – Stopped Out

Swing

BK AUD/USD Big Trade -- Stopped out

BK Big Trade Order Updates

Sell AUD/USD Trade Alert


We are replacing our Post RBA AUD/CAD Sell Order with the following AUD/USD Sell order

Sell 1 lot AUD/USD between 0.7715 and 0.7720

Place order to Sell 1 lot at 0.7775

Stop for ALL at 0.7850

**Cancel EUR/AUD Buy Order

**Cancel AUD/CAD Sell Order

We currently have the following orders/trades in place:

1. EUR/USD Sell Triggered at 1.1425, Still Have Order to SELL 1 more lot at 1.1580, Stop for ALL at 1.1675

2. USD/JPY Buy Triggered at 117.90, Still Have Order to BUY 1 more lot at 116.75, Stop for ALL 115.35

BK EUR/USD Big Trade +75

Swing

BK EUR/USD Out for +75

BK EUR/USD Big Trade -- Move stop to 1.1350 to lock in 75 pips

BK EURO Big Trade Alert -- Post QE Continuation

The Trade:

EUR/USD

Place Order to SELL 1 lot EUR/USD at 1.1425

Place Order to SELL 1 more lot at 1.1580

Stop for whole position at 1.1675

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

—--

It is time to SELL EUROS. The European Central Bank’s decision to start buying government bonds took a major toll on the EUR/USD. The currency pair lost more than 4.5% in a matter of days with the move exceeding our initial 500-pip target. After such a fast and sharp decline, a rebound like the one seen Monday/Tuesday is not unusual and expected especially given the massive amount of short positions in the euro. An increase in German business confidence helped the euro recover from its initial post Greek election decline but we believe the gains will be short-lived and investors should continue to sell euros. The electoral victory by the Syriza party raises medium term problems for the euro. The opposition ran on an anti-austerity campaign that is great for voters but terrible for creditors. As the country runs low on cash, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ will need to restructure the country’s loan agreements quickly. Tspiras wants part of their debt to be written off but their creditors, which include the ECB and Germany refuse to do so. If a new agreement is not made, its creditors could withhold the next bailout payment and Greece could face default. Of course, the Eurozone and the ECB have a lot to lose if Greece defaults because the central bank is tasked with maintaining financial stability and this would wreck havoc on European assets. In response to the Syriza party’s victory, bond yields in Europe jumped, reflecting increased uncertainty and ongoing risks for the euro. At the same time the upcoming FOMC meeting should keep the dollar bid. If the Fed leaves its monetary policy statement unchanged, the dollar will rise, sending the EUR/USD pair lower (more in the dollar portion of our commentary).

Even though EUR/USD has fallen from 1.1650 pre ECB to a low of 1.1098 today, Quantitative Easing can mean even greater losses for a currency. Remember, the first round of QE from the Fed led to a 900 pip decline in USD/JPY over the course of 3 weeks and the QE announcement from the BoJ last year drove USD/JPY from a low of 109 to a high just shy of 120 in 6 weeks time. This means there is additional room for the EUR/USD to fall. If 1.1200 is breached again, we could see the EUR/USD hit and most likely break 1.10.

EUR/USD Headed to 1.10

We think EUR/USD is eventually headed for 1.10. Therefore we recommend:

EUR/USD

Place Order to SELL 1 lot EUR/USD at 1.1425

Place Order to SELL 1 more lot at 1.1580

Stop for whole position at 1.1675

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

BK AUD/CAD Big Trade +68, +150 Total

Swing

BK AUD/CAD -- Close trade at 0.9673 for +68. We’ve banked +150 on the 2 AUD/CAD trades but now Bounce is likely. Reestablish previous orders:

Place order to Sell AUD/CAD at 0.9740
Stop 0.9850

Order triggered

BK AUD/CAD Big Trade Alert

Place order to Sell AUD/CAD at 0.9740

Stop 0.9850

If the RBA cuts interest rates, we expect a big decline in the Australian dollar but having already closed out our AUD/CAD short, weonly want to take the trade if the RBA makes a major move. Therefore we are laying out orders to sell below market at 0.9740.

BK EUR/AUD Big Trade Alert – CANCELED

Swing

BK EUR/AUD Big Trade Alert RBA Straddle

The Trade:

EUR/AUD

Place Order to SELL EUR/AUD at 1.4385


Stop at 1.4550

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

—--

We are looking for tonight’s RBA rate decision to spark fireworks in the Australian dollar. With the futures market pricing in only a 65% chance of a rate cut, there’s clearly no consensus view on the action that the RBA will take. The biggest surprise would be if the RBA cut interest rates by 25bp and we are positioned for a decline through our AUD/CAD short, which is floating a handsome profit. If the central bank cuts, AUD/USD will drop quickly and aggressively to 75 cents, bringing AUD/CAD down with it.

However if the RBA leaves rates unchanged, we could see a major short squeeze in the Australian dollar. According to the latest CFTC report, AUD shorts are at the highest level since February 4th, 2014 -- almost a year ago. This indicates that even though economists are saying there is 50/50 chance of a rate cut, speculators are leaning in one direction. So if the RBA fails to deliver, there could be nice upside opportunity in the Australian dollar. The only tricky part is that the RBA needs to be unambiguously positive. That is if they leave rates unchanged but signal a rate cut in March, AUD will spike higher but fall just as quickly.

We are only interested in buying AUD if the RBA leaves rates unchanged and says nothing more. Aside from the recent positive surprise in Australian data that discourages an immediate rate cut, the RBA is also very weary of creating a bubble in the housing market. The lower exchange rate and decline in oil prices buys them time to wait and see if a rate cut is really necessary.

In that outlier scenario, we would want to buy AUD versus the EUR because the gap between RBA and ECB policy would be most apparent. Therefore we are placing an order to sell EUR/AUD at 1.4370, which is far from current levels because we only want to be triggered on a major positive surprise. EUR/AUD can easily move 200 to 400 pips a day so if the surprise is large enough, we should see continuation.

Don’t forget, we are positioned for a downside AUD move through our AUD/CAD short which we may reenter if we are stopped out prior to RBA.

The Trade -- EUR/AUD

Place Order to SELL EUR/AUD at 1.4385


Stop at 1.4550

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

BK – Out of AUD/CAD, +82 pips on trade

Swing

BK -- Out of AUD/CAD, +82 pips on trade


BK AUD/CAD Big Trade Update -- Move stop to 0.9849 to lock in more pips, +82 total so far

BK AUD/CAD Big Trade -- Close 1/2 at market (now 0.9847), for +42, move stop to our average entry of 0.9889

BK Big Trade Alert Sell AUD/CAD

The Trade:

AUD/CAD

Place Order to SELL 1 lot AUD/CAD at 0.9850

Place Order to SELL 1 more lot at 0.9927

Stop for whole position at 1.0027

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

—--

The Reserve Bank of Australia is gearing up to lower interest rates next week and we believe that the best way to express the trade is through AUD/CAD. The recent move by the RBNZ hardened the markets confidence in a rate cut by the RBA next week. Although the Q4 consumer price report beat expectations, last night’s softer import and export price reports indicates that inflation is slowing. The drop in iron ore and oil price is also lowering inflation expectations. Iron ore, Australia’s biggest export is now trading at a 5 year low. Also, Australia’s growth has slowed as demand from China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, cools and the economy struggles to develop beyond mining. Unemployment stands at a decade high just above 6%, and wages have been stagnant. If Australia wants to stay competitive they will need to lower interest rates and there’s no better time to do so than now. The prospect of a rate cut next week should keep AUD under pressure with further losses likely once the central bank eases.

Meanwhile we continue to believe that oil prices will find a bottom near $40 a barrel. Oil is deeply oversold and due for a recovery. The short oil trade is a crowded one and the current speed and magnitude of losses is not sustainable. At $45 a barrel, some OPEC nations are really suffering and at $40 they could start to cry uncle. The lower crude oil falls, the greater the chance of OPEC nations reconsidering their positions on production cuts and all it takes is one announcement to turn everything including the decline in the CAD around. Oil is re-approaching the 16-Year Trend line that marked a bottom in 2009. With bearish sentiment at an extreme, support could once again be found at this level, providing a much needed relief rally for the Canadian dollar.

AUD/CAD Headed Back to 95 Cents

If the RBA cuts rates, we see AUD/CAD dropping back to 95 cents.

Sell AUD/CAD

Place Order to SELL 1 lot AUD/CAD at 0.9850

Place Order to SELL 1 more lot at 0.9927

Stop for whole position at 1.0027

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

Cancel NZD/USD Big Trade Order

Swing

NZD – Betting on No Changes from RBNZ

Place Order to Buy NZD/USD at 0.7470 (ABOVE MARKET)

Stop at 0.7380

We are buying above market on the premise that our order would be hit only if the RBNZ is hawkish.

In less than 30 minutes we will hear from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Based on the recent price action of the New Zealand dollar, investors are bracing for dovish comments from the central bank. When the RBNZ left rates unchanged last month, Governor Wheeler described monetary policy as still expansionary, talked about the positive NZ economic story and indicated that the drop in oil prices helps disposable incomes. While he admitted that rates will remain on hold for a long term, his comment that the need for rate tightening has been pushed out was enough to satisfy investors who were looking for confirmation of the RBNZ’s tightening bias. In response, NZD/USD rallied more than 250 pips. This month, many people are worried that the surprise rate cut from the Bank of Canada and easing by the ECB will push the RBNZ to drop their tightening bias and adopt a neutral monetary policy stance. Based on the table shown below, there have been both improvements and deterioration since the December meeting. Spending in general remains firm and while PMI manufacturing and services activity slowed between October and December, it picked up between November and December. Most importantly dairy prices have stabilized, while the terms of trade and confidence improved. We could be wrong and the RBNZ could shift to a neutral stance but given recent data and the decline in the New Zealand dollar, they also have every reason to maintain their hawkish bias.

BK Big Trade Out of USD/JPY for +45. Will look to renter at lower level

Swing

BK Big Trade Out of USD/JPY for +45. Will look to renter at lower level

BK USD/JPY Big Trade -- Move stop to 118.35 to lock in +45

BK USD/JPY Big Trade -- Move Stop up to 118.00

BK USD/JPY Big Trade Alert – Time to Buy

The Trade:

USD/JPY

Buy 1 lot USD/JPY at market (now 117.90)

Place Order to Buy 1 Additional lot at 116.75

Stop for ALL 115.35

Risk on our BIG TRADES is large, so make sure your position is small.

We will manage the take profit dynamically and send out alerts on when to take profit and/or move your stop.

—--

It is time to Buy USD/JPY.

Negative interest rates in Switzerland and the prospect of Quantitative Easing by the European Central Bank leaves the market looking for alternative safe havens. The Yen is attractive but from a fundamental perspective not nearly as alluring as the dollar because U.S. economy is actually improving while Japanese growth is struggling. The Fed is one of a select few central banks looking to raise interest rates this year with the chorus growing. Regardless of whether they choose to do so in the summer or fall doesn’t matter – the key is that they plan to do so period and that along with the loss of the Franc as a safe haven should make the dollar more attractive. In the long run, we are still looking for USD/JPY to revisit its 121.85 December high.

The Trade

USD/JPY

Buy 1 lot USD/JPY at market (now 117.90)

Place Order to Buy 1 Additional lot at 116.75

Stop for ALL 115.35