Today’s Trades 12.06.2018 EURUSD, EURCHF, NZDJPY

Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

Currencies and equities are trading sharply lower this morning as a convergence of negative news sends risk assets tumbling. The U.S.’ arrest of Huawei’s executive sourS US-China relations and raise concerns about the seriousness of President Trump’s desire to improve the relationship with China. Oil prices are also down more than 2% ahead of the OPEC meeting on talk from Saudi Arabia that no agreement has been made yet to cut production. 10 year Treasury yields are trading below 2.9% and this persistent decline is exacerbating the pressure on USD/JPY. Dow futures are pointing to a sharply lower (-400 point) open and unless today’s economic reports cause a V shaped recovery, risk off will the theme of the day. ADP, Challenger layoffs, jobless claims, non-manufacturing ISM, durable goods and factory orders are scheduled for release. Keep an eye on the headlines too because aside from OPEC, BoJ Governor Kuroda, BoC Governor Poloz, Fed members Quarles, Bostic and Williams are due to speak along with BoE members Broadbent. Given how much the Canadian dollar has fallen and the aggressive reaction to BoC, Governor Poloz’s Economic Progress report at 8:35am will be exceptionally important.s The worst performing currency today is the Australian dollar which was hit hard by Huawei’s developments. Recent data hasn’t been great as a softer than expected trade surplus follows disappointing GDP. AUD also a risk currency that suffers greatly on risk off days. The strongest is the Japanese Yen which should be no surprise but the losses for EUR and GBP are small which tells us that there’s either significant support at 1.13 for EURUSD and 1.27 for GBPUSD or investors are looking at this as an Asia-Pac / US story.

The MAIN THEMES I see today are

+JPY
-AUD
-CAD
-NZD

Trading Biases

+JPY, +USD (except vs. JPY)
-EUR, -CAD, -AUD, -NZD
mildly -GBP, +CHF

Today’s Ideas

1. Sell EURCHF at 1.1309, stop at 1.1337, Target 1.1281
2. Sell NZDJPY at 77.36, Stop at 77.64, Target 77.08
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1341, Stop at 1.1369, Target 1.1313

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Economic Data Calls for 12.06.2018

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Dec 6, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. AU Retail Sales & Trade Balance (19:30 NY Time) No Trade -- Sales should be stronger given sharp rise in PMI services but trade could be softer given lower retail sales

2. ADP Employment Change (08:15 NY Time) No Trade -- ADP can be market moving but difficult to predict

3. US Trade Balance (08:30 NY Time) Bullish USD -- Potential for upside surprise given rise in ISM manufacturing index

4. US ISM Non-manufacturing index (10:00 NY Time) Bullish USD -- Potential for upside surprise given rise in ISM manufacturing index but stocks have fallen sharply

5. CAD IVEY PMI (10:00 NY Time) Bearish CAd -- Potential for downside surprise given drop in oil prices and large increase the month prior

6. US Factory Orders and Durable Goods (10:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Durable goods, factory orders are hard to predict but can be market moving