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Today’s Trades 12.11.2017 – USDCHF, CADJPY, EURGBP
*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*
The U.S. dollar is trading slightly lower against most of the major currencies this morning and the losses could accelerate if U.S. yields fall further from current levels. There are no major economic reports on the calendar but this is an exceptionally busy week with 4 central bank rate decisions and a host of other market moving releases, so we would not be surprised to see pre-positioning. The best performing currency is the New Zealand dollar which jumped over 1% on the selection of a new central bank governor. However the move is overdone and NZD fundamentals remain weak so we have chosen not to join this trade. 10 year UK yields are down more than 5bp this morning and GBP is flat. This misalignment leads us to believe that GBP will fall, catching up to the move in yields as the FX market realizes what the bond market already knows which is that the second round of Brexit negotiations could be tougher than the first.
*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*
-USD, -GBP, -CAD,
+EUR, +CHF, +NZD, +JPY, +AUD
*Today’s Initial Trades*
1. Sell USDCHF at market now .9905, Stop at .9933, Target .9877
2. Sell CADJPY at market now 88.20, Stop at 88.48, Target 87.92
3. Buy EURGBP at .8813, Stop at .8785, Target .8841
Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT