Today’s Trades 04.04.2018 – EURCAD, AUDJPY, GBPCHF, USDCHF

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

China rolled out $50B in tariffs overnight, sending USD/JPY and risk appetite plunging lower. While the greenback has not fallen across the board (it is up versus GBP, AUD and CAD), it is certainly vulnerable to additional weakness in the NY session as Dow futures, which are down 500 points signal a very ugly open. The U.S. is stirring up the trouble so the greenback will be punished but risk aversion makes it difficult for other currencies to extend their gains as well. This morning’s non-manufacturing ISM and ADP reports will still have an impact on the greenback but at this point, it may be a sideshow to trade tensions. Next to the yen, the New Zealand dollar is the best performing currency, rising on the back of AUD/NZD flows. The Australian dollar is down slightly with weaker building approvals offset by stronger retail sales. Australia is also particularly vulnerable to China’s troubles. USD/CAD should rise further as oil prices continue to fall. Euro is up thanks in part to a higher CPI estimate.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-CAD
-GBP
+NZD
+JPY
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -CAD, -GBP, -AUD
+NZD, +JPY, +CHF
neutral EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.5750, Stop at 1.5722, target 1.5778
2. Sell AUDJPY at 81.45, Stop at 81.73, Target 81.17
3. Short GBPCHF at 1.3462, Stop at 1.3490, Target 1.3434
4, Sell USDCHF at .9582, Stop at .9610, Target .9554

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Swing

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