Big Trade EUR/USD 01.19.2016 +86

1/21 -- Take profit on Aggressive at 1.0834 for +86

1/20 -- Take profit on Conservative at 1.0900 for +70

1/19/2016 -- Conservative Entry Triggered

1/19/2016 -- First Entry Triggered

1. EUR/USD

Aggressive:

Place Order to Sell EUR/USD at 1.0920

Stop at 1.1120

Conservative:

Place Order to Sell EUR/USD at 1.0970

Stop at 1.1170

3 Currencies are in play this week -- GBP, EUR and CAD. We believe that the Bank of Canada should lower rates but we want to see a deeper retrace in USD/CAD before getting in. We’ll revisit the CAD / BoC trade tomorrow.

In the meantime, UK data has been terrible and we believe that this week’s inflation, employment and retail sales figures will reinforce the market’s concerns about the U.K. economy. CPI is scheduled for release tomorrow and with oil prices falling, inflation is likely to decline. More importantly, BoE Governor Carney will be delivering his first speech of the year on the economy and we believe that it will echo the caution heard from this month’s BoE minutes. Earlier this month, U.K. policy makers expressed concerns about financial market volatility and lower inflation.

As for the EURO, while the ECB is not expected to increase stimulus, the price of Brent has fallen by more than third since the ECB met in early December. This will give Mario Draghi strong reasons to remind investors that it is within the central bank’s mandate to increase QE because the drop in oil has made it more difficult for the central bank to meet its 2% inflation target.

Swing

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