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ADP vs. NFP Chart
This morning’s stronger than expected ADP report sparked some optimism for tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls release. Over the past 12 months, ADP has consistently underestimated NFPs which means that non-farm payrolls could be much stronger than expected. The current forecast calls for job growth of 105k. The following chart shows how ADP underestimated Private NFPs 11 out of the last 13 months.