USDCHF to 0.98

USDCHF to 0.98

USDCHF to 0.98

The U.S. dollar shot higher today after the FOMC statement revealed that Federal Reserve has every intention to raise interest rates one more time this year and 3 times in 2018. This unambiguously hawkish monetary policy outlook caught many investors by surprise and sent USD/CHF sharply higher. We think further gains are likely because today’s announcement caught many investors by surprise. The Fed completely overlooked the short term impact of the hurricanes on growth and inflation and instead, talked up the improvements in investment, labor market activity, exports and even spending. In her press conference Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the recovery is on a strong track. This view is shared by her peers because aside from planning to start balance sheet rolloff in October, 11 Fed officials see one more hike in 2017, 4 more than in June. We like buying dollars versus the Swiss Franc because the SNB will be one of the last major central banks to tighten monetary policy. Also technically, USD/CHF has broken above the 20-day SMA and appears poised for a move to the August high of 0.9773 which also happens to be the 38.2% fib retracement of this year’s decline. Support is at the 20-day SMA near 0.9589.

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