NZD/CAD Headed Lower

NZD/CAD Headed Lower

NZD/CAD Headed Lower

The next 24 hours will be a busy one for the commodity currencies with New Zealand and Canadian data scheduled for release. The New Zealand dollar has been incredibly resilient in the face of weakening data. Last night’s trade balance report came in significantly lower than expected with the deficit expanding in the month of November instead of contracting like economists anticipated. This does not bode well for tonight’s GDP report as trade activity and consumer spending turned lower in the third quarter. The only thing holding NZD/USD up is risk appetite but if GDP misses like we expect, NZD fundamentals could finally catch up to the currency. In particular, we are looking for against the Canadian dollar ahead of and on the back of tomorrow’s retail sales and consumer price reports. Technically USD/CAD is just beginning to turn and at risk of a deeper decline towards 1.2750. Fundamentally, today’s jump in wholesale sales signals is a sign of healthy demand while the sharp uptick in the price component of the latest IVEY PMI report points to growing price pressures. For these reasons we believe that CPI and retail sales will surprise to the upside. Technically, NZD/CAD’s failed attempt to take out 90 cents puts the pair on course for a move down to 89 cents and possibly even to the 20-SMA near .8850. This month’s high coincides with the 23.6% Fib retracement 2009 to 2016 rally.

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