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EUR/USD – At Crossroads
This has not been a good week for the euro. After spiking to 1.1600 at start of trade the pair has lost more than 200 points in a clear case of sentiment exhaustion. As Kathy has been pointing out for the past several days, seasonal factors likely to weigh on the pair through the month of May and the gross overbought positioning from the CFTC data suggests that there is more selling to come.
Tomorrow the market will the get a look at the marquee event of the week with consensus looking for a 200K in new jobs. The prior data has been mixed with ADP report markedly lower but ISM Non Manufacturing employment subcomponent rising by nearly 3 points. If the NFPs prove stronger than expected they will provide the perfect excuse of the long EUR/USD positions and could take the pair through the 1.1300 figure before the day is over.