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EURUSD – 1.1000 and French Election in View
The EURUSD powered its way to fresh multi-month highs breaking above the 1.0950 level and rising all the way to 1.0985. The pair is within the striking distance of the key 1.1000 figure that it hasn’t seen since last year and could break it in Asia session trade.
Over the next 72 hours, however, the pair faces two very important event risks. Tomorrow’s NFPs and Sunday night’s French election results. Both could prove beneficial to the pair and seal its rise above the 1.1000 level. If the NFPs prove soft, especially on the wage front, the nearly universal assumption that the Fed will hike rates will come under doubt and yield differentials between Treasuries and Bunds could compress sending euro higher.
Then on Sunday, a solid Macron win would ensure the status of EU and will create another wave of relief buying in the pair. There is a risk that much of the good news has been priced in, and the EURUSD could see a sell the news dynamic later on the week, but for now all roads lead to the 1.1000 figure as sentiment looks solidly euro bullish.