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AUDCAD – Pop to Parity?
Everyone has their eyes out for the Bank of Canada rate decision tomorrow at 1000 NY time. Aside from the ECB meeting a day later it is the most important event of the week. The market is leaning heavily long loonie anticipating that the BOC will signal that a rate hike is coming in October and given the positive stream of Canadian data of late the speculation may be correct. Still, there is not an insubstantial chance that the BOC may choose to hold its powder dry and remain stationary for the time being.
Meanwhile the RBA last night reaffirmed it neutral stance but clearly tilted in the hawkish direction by noting that the growth and inflation were likely to increase and at very minimum suggesting that no easing will occur in the immediate future. This has helped to push the Aussie through the key .8000 level and it remains well bid into the New York close.
If the BOC does surprise to the downside the loonie is sure to crash which will pop AUDCAD through the parity level almost instantly. On the other hand, if the Canadian monetary authorities confirm a hike, the move could be more muted given the massive rally already in place.