Economic Data Calls for 10/26/17

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Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Oct 26, 2017) — Good Luck Trading!

1. NZ Trade Balance (17:45 NY Time) Bearish NZD -- Potential for downside surprise given Lower PMI manufacturing index but last month’s number was very weak

2. ECB Rate Decision 7:45 NY Time) -- No Trade -- ECB expected to taper but there could be a good chance of dovish taper

3. US Advance Goods Trade Balance (8:30 NY Time) Bullish USD -- Potential for upside surprise given Sharp rise in ISM manufacturing index

GBPUSD – Back to 1.3000?

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Today’s MPC member testimony in front of UK Parliament cast a particularly dovish tenor in the pound as UK monetary authorities clearly appeared reluctant to hike rates despite inflation data at five-year highs. The BoE officials are concerned that the slowdown in the Uk economy could turn into a recession if monetary conditions are tightened prematurely.

Tomorrow’s UK wage data will go a long way towards deciding which way the BoE will lean. Wage growth has been the principal concern of the more dovish MPC members, as real wages are now showing a -0.9% contraction. Tomorrow wages are expected to maintain the 2.1% pace of the month prior. If they print better than forecast than cable could catch a bid as some of the concerns would be allayed. However, if wages are worse than consensus at the same time as inflation remains stubbornly high, the cable is sure to take a hit and test the 1.3100 mark as hopes of any monetary tightening will be put on hold

Economic Data Calls for 9/27/17

Uncategorized Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Sept 27, 2017) — Good Luck Trading!

1. US Durable Goods and Pending Home Sales (8:30 and 10:00 NY Time) -- No Trade -- Durable good orders are hard to predict but can be market moving

2. RBNZ Official Cash Rate (16:00 NY Time) -- No Trade -- We do not trade rate decisions

Economic Data Calls for 09.07.2017

Uncategorized Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Sept 7, 2017) — Good Luck Trading!

1. AU Retail Sales (21:30 NY Time) -- Bearish AUD -- Potential for downside surprise given sharp drop in sales component of PSI

2. German Industrial Production (2:00 NY Time) -- Bearish EUR -- Potential for downside surprise given drop in factory orders

3. ECB Rate Decision (7:45 NY Time) -- No Trade -- Rate decisions best traded reactively

4. CAD IVEY (10:00 NY Time) -- Bearish CAD -- Potential downside surprise given stronger CAnadian dollar

Has USDCAD Reversed?

Has USDCAD Reversed?

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With oil prices continuing to drift lower and with Canadian inflation subdued USDCAD made a major reversal in US trade today recovering above the 1.2550 level as longs pressed the pair higher. With ADP and US GDP on the docket tomorrow the greenback could have another strong day and could push the pair through the 1.2600 figure as the day proceeds.

In addition to US data, the market will be looking at US crude stockpiles which may have ballooned due to Hurricane Harvey. If Hurricane pushes prices of crude towards the $45/bbl level the loonie is sure to suffer a major blow and USDCAD short squeeze will accelerate.

EURJPY – To Fresh Highs?

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Tomorrow the Fed is expected to give the dollar a boost but at the same time, the EURUSD hasn’t slowed a bit. The pair made fresh multi-month highs today as positive data out of Germany indicates that the rising currency is not hurting growth in the region.

Therefore, even if the Fed reaffirms its goal to hike rates once more before the end of the year, the rise in USDJPY won’t be accompanied by a fall in EURUSD which makes EURJPY such a compelling trade at the moment. The pair has held the 130.00 mark and could push to 132.00 if the FOMC meeting proves dollar positive as we believe it will be.

EURUSD – Heading for 1.1700?

EURUSD – Heading for 1.1700?

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Mario Draghi tried. He really did. But the market would just not buy his dovish talk. The fact of the matter is that the Eurozone recovery is in full bloom and the ECB is definitely heading for a taper as it tries to normalize monetary policy after years of extraordinary measures.

Meanwhile, on this side of the Atlantic, attempts by the Fed to reassure the market that further rate hikes are coming look increasingly dubious as US data continues to disappoint. The odds of another rate hike by the end of the year have fallen below 50% and today’s weak Philly Fed numbers did not help matters.

Tomorrow the econ calendar is barren, but euro bulls having broken through the key 1.1600 level are emboldened to challenged the multi month highs at 1.1719

Economic Data Calls for 7/12/17

Uncategorized Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (July 12, 2017) — Good Luck Trading!

1. UK Employment Report (4:30 NY Time) -- Bullish GBP -- Potential for upside surprise given Services reported strongest increase since April 2016. Manufacturing jobs also up

2. EZ Industrial Production (5:00 NY Time) -- Bullish EUR -- Potential for upside surprise given stronger FR and GE IP

3. BoC Rate Decision and July Monetary Policy Report (10:00 NY Time) -- No Trade -- Likely to be positive but we do not trade rate decision

4. FOMC Beige Book Release (14:00 NY Time) -- No Trade -- Likely to be positive but we do not trade reports

Economic Data Calls for 6/23/17

Uncategorized Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Jun 23, 2017) — Good Luck Trading!

1. GE and EZ PMI’s (3:30 and 4:00 NY Time) Bullish EUR -- Potential for upside surprise given Stronger ZEW and GE factory orders but lower IP

2. CA CPI (8:30 NY Time) < font color=red> Bearish CAD -- Potential for downside surprise given Sharp drop in prices in May but need to be careful because BoC was hawkish

3. US PMI’s (10:00 NY Time) Bullish USD -- Potential for upside surprise given rise in existing home sales

Economic Data Calls for 6/9/17

Uncategorized Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Jun 9, 2017) — Good Luck Trading!

1. GE Trade and Current Account Balance (2:00 NY Time) Bullish EUR -- Potential for upside surprise given rise in industrial production

2. UK Trade Balance, Industrial and Manufacturing Production (4:30 NY Time) Bearish GBP -- Potential for downside surprise given drop in PMI manufacturing index

3. CA Employment Report (8:30 NY Time) Bearish CAD -- Potential for downside surprise given drop in IVEY PMI