Today’s Trades 10.12.2018 NZDJPY, EURNZD, NZDCAD, EURUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After selling off for most of this week, the U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Canadian dollar, but that could also change as the morning progresses. The recovery in the greenback is directly tied to the recovery in stocks and the increase in Treasury yields. Asian and European equities rebounded overnight and as of right now, Dow futures are pointing to a strong triple digit open. Market appetite will be the main focus today and not US data because the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is the only major U.S. economic report that is scheduled for release. Last night’s stronger Chinese trade numbers failed to help AUD and NZD which are giving up their gains because the increase was driven entirely by higher exports. Import growth slowed which is negative for Chinese suppliers like Australia and New Zealand. NZD is particularly vulnerable after New Zealand’s Finance Minister endorsed by the slide in NZD by saying he’s “not uncomfortable with the currency level.” The euro has been unable to break 1.16 and is now trading lower despite stronger Eurozone industrial production. USD/CAD wants to break 1.30 and with oil prices rising, that could happen this morning. The strongest currency pair is USD/JPY, which could benefit from a recovery in stocks and GBP is the riskiest as there are reports that Prime Minister May won’t agree to being trapped in a customs union.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-NZD
-AUD
-EUR
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-NZD, -AUD, -EUR
mildly -GBP, -CHF, +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at 73.13, Stop at 73.41, Target 72.85
2. Buy EURNZD at 1.7783, Stop at 1.7755, Target 1.7803
3. Sell NZDCAD at .8475, Stop at .8503, Target .8447
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1583, Stop at 1.1611, Target 1.1554

Today’s Trades 09.25.2018 USDJPY, USDCAD, EURGBP, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With just over 24 hours to go before the next FOMC meeting, we’re not seeing any clear direction in the FX market. The U.S. dollar is trading higher against the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc but is lower against euro, sterling and the commodity currencies. A rise in German wholesale prices is supporting the EURO while hawkish comments from the BoE’s Vlieghe took GBP/USD back above 1.3150. He said 2 or 3 hikes a year is appropriate. The big story today is the broad based rise in global yields. Interest rates in the US, UK and Germany are up with 10 year Treasury yields rising to their highest level since May. This along with BoJ Governor Kuroda’s comment that the US-Japanese yield spread should drive USD/JPY higher has the pair eye 113. US consumer confidence is the only major piece of US data on the calendar today but NAFTA, Brexit and UN headlines could have a bigger impact on FX trade. With oil prices moving upwards and equities rising, USD/CAD should trade lower. AUD and NZD are trying to bounce and they may but at the end of the day, the RBNZ will keep policy unchanged tonight and the RBA will do the same next week which should cap the gains for both currencies in an environment of rising US rates.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+CAD
+CHF
+GBP
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+CAD, +CHF, +GBP, +EUR
-JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, +USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.2958, stop at 1.2986, Target 1.2930
2. Sell USDCHF at .9657, Stop at .9685, Target .9629
3. Sell EURGBP at .8943, Stop at .8971, Target .8915
4. Buy USDJPY at 112.89, Stop at 112.61, Target 113.17

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 09.21.2018 EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are looking at a quieter start to the NY session after a big day for currencies and equities. US stock futures are indicating another positive open which means that the rally in USD/JPY could continue. There are no major US economic reports scheduled for release today so risk appetite and trade headlines will determine FX flows. GBP is the weakest currency because UK borrowing was worse than expected in August. Euro is under pressure as well due to softer PMIs. Service sector activity accelerated but manufacturing activity was weak and it drove the overall EZ composite index lower. EUR/usD could fall to 1.1740. Canadian CPI and retail sales are the most important pieces of data on the calendar this morning and with USD/CAD consolidating above 1.2900 for the past 12 hours, we believe that the pair wants to rally after the sharp sell-off this week but of course that all depends on data. Most of the major currencies appear to be due for a pullback but NZD remains one of the strongest currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-CAD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CHF
-EUR, -CAD, -AUD, -JPY
mildly -GBP, +NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7285, Stop at .7313, Target .7257
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2916, Stop at 1.2888, Target 1.2944
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.7596, Stop at 1.7624, Target 1.7568
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1764, Stop at 1.1792, Target 1.1736

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 09.19.2018 GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURCAD

Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

Its a risk on day in FX with all of the majors currencies up from yesterday’s levels. Investors continue to be unfazed by the US-China trade war and based on the strength of the Canadian dollar, they are hopeful that with Canadian foreign minister Freeland back in Washington today, progress can finally be made. The best performing currency is the Australian dollar but the Swiss Franc is not far behind. The Swiss National Bank meets tomorrow and investors are unwinding their long CHF positions on the fear that the central bank will harden their criticism of the currency strength. EUR/CHF hit a 13 month low this month and after riding the reversal for +50 pips in USDCHF for a swing trade, we think there will be further profit taking on long CHF positions during the NY session. Sterling is also up strongly this morning on the back of solid inflation data so +GBPCHF could work too but its high vol. Consumer and producer prices accelerated this month, reinforcing the Bank of England’s optimism. The Japanese Yen is trading lower this morning despite the Bank of Japan’s rosy economic outlook. The BoJ left interest rates unchanged last night and said the economy is expanding moderately despite escalating trade tensions. The main focus today will be on US-Canada trade talks and any other trade related headlines as the US only has housing starts and building permits scheduled for release.

The MAIN THEMES I see today are

+USD
+CAD
+GBP
-CHF
-EUR
-JPY

Trading Biases

+USD, +CAD, +GBP, +NZD, +AUD
-EUR, -CHF, -JPY

Today’s Ideas

1. Sell EURCAD at 1.5138, Stop at 1.5166, Target 1.5110
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.3183, Stop 1.3155, Target 1.3211
3. Buy USDJPY at 112.39, Stop at 112.11, Target 112.67
4. Buy USDCHF at .9675, Stop at .9647 Target .9695

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 09.04.2018 EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD, USDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The summer is finally over and U.S. traders are back! This is a very busy week in the FX market with 2 central bank rate decisions, PMIs and employment reports on the calendar. The greenback is starting the week firmer, rising against all of the major currencies. The New Zealand dollar is leading the slide after terms of trade fell far short of expectations. NZD/USD dropped to a fresh 2 year low overnight while AUD/USD hit a new 1.5 year low. Interestingly enough, the move was not driven by the RBA who left monetary policy unchanged and said they expect the economy to grow above trend in the first half of 2018 with higher inflation and gradual progress in CPI and jobless expected. There was no comment about recent mortgage rate hikes. The meltdown in AUD did not happen until the London open. RBA Governor Lowe speaks at 7:30 NY / 12:30 GMT so there could be some headline risk as a result. Other major currencies have also fallen sharply with GBP pressured by a weaker UK construction PMI. EUR shrugged off stronger producer prices while CAD ignores the 1.7% increase in oil prices. With Treasury yields moving upwards, we expect the greenback to trade higher throughout the North American session.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+JPY
-EUR
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +JPY
-EUR, -GBP
mildly -CAD, -AUD, -NZD
neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDJPY at 111.42, Stop at 111.14, Target 111.70
2. Sell EURGBP at .9013, Stop at .9041, Target .8985
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1557, Stop at 1.1585, Target 1.1529
4. Sell EURAUD at 1.6100, Stop at 1.6128, Target 1.6072

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.30.2018 CHFJPY, EURUSD, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading firmer this morning against most of the major currencies but the pullback in USD/JPY and stability of USD/CHF tells us that the moves are fueled by profit taking. With that in mind, the greenback could extend its recovery if personal income and personal spending numbers are strong, like we expect. The worst performer this morning is the New Zealand dollar which has fallen sharply on the back of lower building permits and business confidence. We are surprised that AUD isn’t down more given the recent mortgage rate hike by Westpac and last night’s softer private capital expenditures and building approvals report. EUR/USD made a brief attempt above 1.17 at the NY open but the drop in EZ confidence has limited the pair’s recovery. GBP failed to extend yesterday’s rise but is one of the most resilient currencies this morning and should continue to outperform on a relative basis.a The Canadian dollar remains in focus with ongoing trade talks and Canadian GDP scheduled for release this morning.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-NZD
-AUD
-CHF
+CAD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +JPY, +CAD
-EUR, -NZD, -CHF, -AUD,
mildly +GBP (on relative basis)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.2916, Stop at 1.2944, Target 1.2883
2. Sell CHFJPY at 115.01, stop at 115.29, Target 114.73
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1695, Stop at 1.1723, Target 1.1667
4. Sell EURGBP at .8987, Stop at .9015, Target .8959

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.29.2018 AUDUSD, GBPUSD, AUDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a relatively quiet morning in the FX market with the U.S. dollar down against the euro and up against sterling. There’s not much to explain these moves because what we’ve seen so far today is more euro positive and sterling negative. To be more specific, Italian yields are down, German yields are up which should support the euro. The UK’s Raab is complaining about EU Brexit negotiator Barnier’s availability -- which is another sign that the talks may not be going well but GBP seems to be ignoring the news. The worst performing currency this morning is the Australian dollar, which sold off aggressively after Westpac raised its variable mortgage rates by 14bp. This makes home payments more expensive for consumers which tightens their pocketbooks and dampens the RBA’s ability to raise interest rates. The Canadian dollar is in play today with the possibility of some updates from Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland’s trade talks with the US and USD/CAD is bouncing off its lows in anticipation but we think its going to head lower as the day progresses because Canada has no choice but to deal. Canada’s current account balance is also due for release. Revisions to second quarter US GDP and pending home sales are due from the US today -- we don’t expect either of these reports to have a significant impact on the greenback as investors focus on risk appetite and trade headlines.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +JPY, +CAD
-EUR, -AUD, -CHF, -NZD,
neutral USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7305, Stop at .7334, Target .7277
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.2893, Stop at 1.2865, Target 1.2921
3. Sold AUDCAD at .9949, Stop at .9476, Target .9420
4. Buy USDCHF at .9768, Stop at. 9740, Target .9796

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.28.2018 EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURCAD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is heading in the NY trading session lower against most of the major currencies. The only currency that is underperforming the greenback is the Japanese Yen. Its weakness along with the resilience of USD/JPY tells us that risk appetite remains strong. US stocks climbed to record highs yesterday and stock futures are pointing to positive open. The Swiss Franc is the best performer but the only reason why the euro isn’t matching the Franc’s rise is because it
took some time for the currency to break 1.17. The euro’s rally is also supported by the pullback in Italian yields and comments from Germany’s foreign minister who said he expects the US to revoke tariff threats. The next stop should be the 100-day SMA near 1.1750. While sterling could also move higher on US dollar weakness, the latest Brexit headlines suggest that negotiations aren’t going as well as the UK hopes. Prime Minister May said a no deal Brexit is not the end the world and the UK’s Fox said they made a fair and reasonable offer to the EU. They also said hard Brexit is not off the table. These are not the type of headlines we want to see out of the talks -- UK leaders should be touting progress and the nearing of a deal rather than alternative options. The big focus today are the trade talks between US and Canada. Foreign minister Freeland will be in Washington to resume negotiations and its not clear if we’ll know how the talks went today or tomorrow. The Canadian dollar is trading firmly ahead of the meeting and appears poised for a move down to 1.29. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also extended their gains. US trade and consumer confidence numbers will be released during the NY session.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CAD
+NZD
+GBP
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+EUR, +CAD, +CHF, +NZD, +GBP
mildly +AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.1703, stop at 1.1675 Target 1.1731
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.2899, Stop at 1.2871, Target 1.2927
3. Sell AUDCHF at .7182, Stop at .7210, Target .7154
4. Sell EURCAD at 1.5137, Stop at 1.5165, Target 1.5109

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.23.2018 EURGBP, EURAUD, USDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currencies are trading higher this morning ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. We know that Powell and Poloz will be the only central bank leaders attending as Draghi, Carney and Kuroda stay behind. Judging from the price action of USDJPY, investors are cautiously concerned that Powell will talk down the dollar because while USD/JPY is holding onto yesterday’s gains, the greenback is trading lower against all other major currencies. AUD/USD traders may be legitimately satisfied with the political resolution in Australia, but relations between the US and China remain chill as their trade talks end with no real resolution. Although the EURO is trading well today, we are growing increasingly concerned about the currency because Italian bond yields are closing in on their highest level in 4 years. We’re only about 4bp from there. Sterling traded strongly overnight and could experience a further squeeze up to 1.29. Higher oil prices and risk appetite is driving USD/CAD lower with the pair likely to make move down to 1.3050. The New Zealand dollar should follow AUD higher especially after last night’s trade data. The greenback is trading with a softer bias ahead of Powell and the selling pressure could remain in place before the Fed Chair speaks.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-JPY
+GBP
+AUD
+CAD
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -JPY
+GBP, +AUD, +CAD, +CHF, +NZD
+EUR/USD but -EUR vs. other currencies

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.3068, Stop at 1.3096, Target 1.3040
2. Sell EURGBP at .9005, Stop at .9033, Target .8977
3. Sell EURAUD at 1.5887, Stop at 1.5915, Target 1.5859
4. Sell USDCHF at .9839, Stop at .9867, Target .9811

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.21.2018 EURUSD, AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Although the greenback was hit hard in the past 24 hours by President Trump’s criticism of the Fed, they will not affect monetary policy. But it was the perfect excuse for USD bulls to abandon their positions. In the Asia session overnight, the selling gained momentum after EUR/USD broke through 1.15 -- stops were triggered and EUR/USD rallied quickly, taking all of the major currencies higher along with it. However the rally stopped right at the 20-day SMA for EUR/USD and its not clear if the pair will have the momentum to extend beyond that level. The best performing currency this morning is the New Zealand dollar but NZD is vulnerable to losses if dairy prices fail to rise at today’s auction. AUD and CAD are also higher with the loonie likely to gain traction in the North American session for a potential test of 1.30. Last night’s RBA minutes had very little impact on AUD. Brexit talks are underway this morning so GBP could be vulnerable to headline risk but right now it looks like it wants to make a run to 1.2875. Stocks are up, yields are up and oil prices are moving higher -- all signs of a risk on rally.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+AUD
+CAD
+GBP
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

-JPY
+AUD, +CAD +GBP, +EUR
mildly +NZD, +CHF
neutral USD but (+USDJPY)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDJPY at 81.18, stop at 80.90, Target 81.46
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1524, Stop at 1.1496, Target 1.1552
3. Buy CADJPY at 84.68, Stop at 84.40, Target 84.96
4. Sell EURGBP at .8978, stop at .9006, Target .8950

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 08.08.2018 USDCHF, AUDUSD, CADJPY, EURCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a steady to slightly positive open but currencies are still reeling from last night’s sell-off in Asian equities. Chinese stocks dropped more than 1% as ongoing concerns about U.S.-China trade tension continues to pressure the markets. The Yuan resumed its slide despite mixed Chinese trade data -- the trade surplus declined but exports and imports increased. All of the Japanese Yen crosses are trading lower, led by the decline in USD/JPY. Now that 111 has been broken, the main levels to watch are 110.80 (50-day SMA) and 110.60 (July 26 low). The weakest currency is sterling which fell to a fresh 11 month low today. GBP/USD has not seen a rally in 7 trading days and with no data to support the currency, investors are focused on the growing risk on a no-deal Brexit. The greenback is mixed and a quiet data day means risk on/risk off will drive dollar flows. EUR and AUD are flat but there’s a good chance that we could see some weakness in the NY session. NZD on the other hand should be quiet with the RBNZ rate decision tonight whereas USD/CAD could struggle underneath 1.31.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*
+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -CHF, -CAD
Neutral NZD,

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9955, Stop at .9927, Target .9983
2. Buy EURCAD at 1.5173, Stop at 1.5145, Target 1.5201
3. Sell AUDUSD at .7412, Stop at. 7440, Target .7384
4. Buy CADJPY at 84.85, Stop at 84.57, Target 85.13

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT