Today’s Trades 02.23.2018 – USDCAD, EURNZD, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Its a quiet start to what could be another busy day in the FX market. The Fed will be releasing its monetary policy report at 11am NY time and this is viewed as a blueprint for Jerome Powell’s speech next week. Canadian consumer prices are also due for release and as usual, investors will be watching equities which are poised for a stronger open. The U.S. dollar is trading higher against many of the major currencies (EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD) but it continues to struggle versus the JPY. Claims of victory at the latest Brexit negotiations by both sides provided a momentary lift to sterling and we expect the single currency to outperform its peers today. Its the end of the week so there’s risk for reversals but there’s been no clear direction in stocks so not much incentive for profit taking or liquidation.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-AUD
-NZD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD, -EUR, -JPY, -CHF
-AUD, -NZD,
mildly +GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.2700, Stop at 1.2728, Target 1.2672
2. Buy EURNZD at 1.6865, Stop at 1.6837, Target 1.6893
3. Sell CHFJPY at 114.32, Stop at 114.60, Target 114.04

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.22.2018 – EURAUD, NZDUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While the Japanese Yen is trading higher against across the board today, the U.S. dollar is down against all of the major currencies except for sterling which fell on the back of weaker GDP. This divergence between the yen and the greenback reflects the battle in risk. After selling off sharply in the last 2 hours of trade, U.S. stocks futures are pointing to only a modestly lower open. Asian stocks took a hit but European stocks have stabilized. Given the recent vol in stocks it is too early to tell whether equities will resume their slide in North American trade. Meanwhile the best performing currencies this morning are comm dollars with AUD leading the gains. Canadian retail sales are scheduled for release this morning and we are seeing profit taking on long USD/CAD positions ahead of this key report. The euro has shrugged off a softer IFO report and while USD/JPY is in a clear downtrend. Jobless claims are also on the calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+AUD
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -GBP
+AUD, +NZD, +CHF
neutral JPY, mildly +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy NZDUSD at .7333, stop at .7305, Target .7361
2. Sell EURAUD at 1.5710, Stop at 1.5738, Target 1.5682
3. Sell USDCHF at .9377, Stop at .9405, Target .9349
4. Buy AUDUSD at .7819, Stop at .7791, Target .7847

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.21.2018 – EURUSD, USDCAD, NZDJPY, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar extended its gains against all of the major currencies overnight with USD/JPY running as high as 107.90. However as we start the North America session, USD/JPY is trading well off that level while pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain near their lows. Softer than expected Eurozone PMIs pushed the single currency pair down for the 4th day in a row and while UK claimant count and wages beat expectations, sterling traders were dismayed by the higher unemployment rate. BoE Governor Carney and a number of UK policymakers are speaking later this afternoon, making for the possibility of volatile GBP trade. The commodity currencies are lower across the board but the declines have been modest as investors wait for US data and the FOMC minutes. Stock futures are pointing to a flat open that should be perceived as positive rather than negative for risk appetite.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+EUR
-GBP
-CAD
-NZD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +JPY
-GBP, -CAD, -AUD, -NZD, -CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at 78.89, Stop at 79.17, Target 78.61
2. Buy EURAUD at 1.5689, Stop at 1.5661, Target 1.5717
3. Buy USDCAD at 1.2661, Stop at 1.2633, Target 1.2689
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.2317, Stop at 1.2289, Target 1.2345

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.20.2018 – EURUSD, USDCAD, GBPNZD, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies today but stock futures are pointing to a sharply lower open (of course that could change quickly) as the Dow and S&P 500 hover under key technical levels. This makes USD/JPY’s rally vulnerable to a pullback and puts further downside pressure on other major currencies. There are no major U.S. economic reports but 10 year yields have topped 2.9%. A softer German ZEW survey drove EUR/USD below 1.2350 but at the start of NY trade, the single currency is trying to claw higher. The strongest currency outside of the greenback is the New Zealand dollar which is holding steady ahead of today’s dairy auction. Prices have been moving higher and another positive read is needed to maintain the pair’s uptrend. GBP ran up to 1.4016 on reports from UK minister Davis that a end of year deal is in the cards but has fallen off its highs since then. AUDUSD hit a 4 day low, USD/CAD is finding resistance near 1.26 -- whether a pullback happens from here hinges on the performance of U.S. stocks but at minimum, oil prices are moving up, supporting a decline in USD/CAD.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-GBP
+NZD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD, +NZD
-EUR, -GBP, -CHF, -AUD, -JPY
neutral USDJPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell CHFJPY at 114.57, Stop at 114.85, Target 114.29
2. Sell GBPNZD at 1.9988, stop at 1.9016, Target 1.8960
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.2346, Stop at 1.2374, Target 1.2318
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.2591, Stop at 1.2619, Target 1.2563

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.12.2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

US equity futures are trading sharply higher this morning thanks to strong gains in Asia and Europe. This stabilization helps currencies find support after last week’s sharp losses. If stocks are able to close in positive territory today, we could see the beginning of a stronger recovery in FX and equities. Although there are no U.S. economic reports scheduled for release, investors are relieved that Congress’ passed a 2 year budget deal that puts a government shutdown behind us. They are also encouraged by reports that the Chinese government may have director shareholders to support the market. A recovery in stocks would drive the Yen crosses higher along with some of the high beta currencies that were beaten down last week. The big question today is whether the equity market recovery can be sustained and if so, USD/JPY could find its way back up to 109.00.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+EUR
+AUD
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +AUD, CAD
-JPY, -CHF
mildly -NZD
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy EURUSD at 1.2269, Stop at 1.2241, Target 1.2297
2. Buy AUDJPY at 85.07, Stop at .84.79 Target 85.35
3. Sell USDCAD at 1.2565, Stop at 1.2593, Target 1.2537
4. Buy USDJPY at 108.63, Stop at 108.35, Target 108.91

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

oday’s Trades 02.08.2018 – EURJPY, AUDNZD, CADCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We’re late with this note (all trades were posted on slack) because we were preparing to live trade the Bank of England rate decision but now that the first leg of movement has occurred -- we have a few minutes to share our thoughts.

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning (with the exception of GBP which popped on the BoE’s upgraded growth forecast and their comment that rates could rise faster and earlier than they anticipated in November -- which is an overwhelmingly positive comment. Stock futures are pointing to a lower open but the decline so far appears modest so USD/JPY is attempting to bottom and we think other yen crosses will as well (which is why we are long EURJPY). USD/CAD is also meeting resistance and we have chosen to buy the Canadian dollar vs. the Swiss Franc although USDCAD itself looks like an attractive sell. AUD and NZD are weak and likely to fall further but AUD is deep in its decline whereas NZD is just beginning to catch up, making AUD/NZD an attractive long trade. EUR is neither here nor there. Its benefitting from GBP strength but also held back by USD gains.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP (post BoE)
+CAD
-NZD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP, +CAD
-NZD, -JPY, -CHF, -AUD
neutral EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy CADCHF at .7509, Stop at .7481, Target .7537
2. Buy EURJPY at 134.24, Stop at 133.96, Target 134.52
3. Buy AUDNZD at 1.0826, Stop at 1.0798, Target 1.0854

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.07.2018 – EURGBP, EURUSD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Risk sentiment is starting to deteriorate again after yesterday’s attempted consolidation. Asian and European equities came off their highs with some indices ending the day in negative territory. Dow futures are pointing to another ugly open. U.S. stocks may have experienced their strongest one day rise since 2016 but investors are nervous as the recent volatility makes them realize that equities are not in a one way uptrend. With U.S. yields rising the danger the economy faces is still very real. The Japanese Yen is the best performer today followed by the U.S. dollar -- the sell-off in USD/JPY is pulling other Yen crosses lower. All of the major currency pairs including EUR/USD and GBP/USD are vulnerable to additional losses at the start of the NY session. Yesterday’s recovery may have been a fakeout but prices could turn around just as quickly as they did yesterday so the prospect of volatile trading and wild swings means everyone should be weary of reversals.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+JPY
+USD (except USDJPY)
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CHF, -CAD
+JPY, +USD (but -USDJPY)
mildly -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2519, Stop at 1.2491, Target 1.2547
2. Buy EURGBP at .8892, Stop at .8864, Target .8920
3. Short EURUSD at 1.2345, Stop at 1.2373, Target 1.2317

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.06.2018 – EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With Dow futures pointing to another 300 pip drop at the open (this will change as we get closer to 9:30), earlier consolidations have given way to more liquidation. European currencies are falling quickly with EUR/USD extending its losses beyond 1.24 and GBP/USD eyeing 1.39. The Australian dollar is the weakest courtesy of last night’s softer data and neutral RBA. The resilience of the New Zealand dollar continues to surprise us as it remains the strongest performer ahead of NZ’s dairy auction, tonight’s labor market report and tomorrow’s RBNZ rate decision. With UK and German yields pointing sharply lower, further losses in EUR and GBP are likely. The market’s appetite for dollars should be limited which means the greatest pain could be felt in Yen crosses. We have the US and Canada’s trade balance along with the IVEY PMI report scheduled for release today but stocks and risk appetite should drive FX trade. With all this in mind, beware of turnaround Tuesday risk -- after 1700 points of losses in the Dow, rebound risk is growing.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+JPY
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -AUD, -CHF
+JPY, +USD (but -USDJPY)
mildly -NZD
neutral CAD,

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy EURGBP at .8883, Stop at .8855, Target .8911

EURGBP -3
GBPNZD +14
AUDJPY +20
USDJPY +1
USDJPT -19
Total +13

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.05.2018 – USDCAD, EURJPY, CHFJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The best performing currencies this morning are the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen and whenever that happens, its a sign of risk aversion. After Friday’s 665 point drop in the Dow, investors are nervous that there will be more selling and weakness that drives currencies lower. Stock futures are pointing to a -250 point lower open! This is a busy week in the FX market with 3 central bank rate decisions and a host of other market moving reports but there’s very little U.S. data to key off of so risk appetite will be driving dollar flows. The greenback could extend its gains against high beta currencies like GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD, which are vulnerable to additional profit taking this week. The weakest currency this morning is the British pound which is not surprising considering that the central bank’s meeting and Quarterly Inflation reports are the biggest events this week. PMI data was also softer with service sector and composite activity slowing. The Australian dollar is holding up best ahead of this evening’s RBA rate decision and retail sales report.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-CAD
+JPY
-EUR
-CHF
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

-GBP, -CAD, -CHF, -NZD
+JPY, +USD (except for +USDJPY)
mildly -EUR
neutral AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2425, Stop at 1.2397, target 1.2453
2. Sell CHFJPY at 117.84, Stop at 118.12, Target 117.56
3. Sold EURJPY at 136.54, Stop at 136.82, Target 136.25

Pips banked in #2 and Trade Copier pre-summary
GBPUSD +28
USDJPY -8
EURUSD +2
Total +22

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 02.01.2018 – USDCAD, EURUSD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The positive momentum generated by Wednesday’s FOMC statement carried over to Asia and Europe where investors continued to drive the U.S. dollar higher against all of the major currencies. This morning, the greenback is struggling to extend its gains particularly against the JPY as the pair nears 109.77 (Jan 26 high) resistance. The EURO continues to be one of the strongest currency, holding well above 1.2400 and aiming for a move above 1.2450. GBP is also up which surprising considering given softer manufacturing PMI. The commodity currencies are the weakest AUD leading the slide. The Canadian dollar is holding up best but each day it manages to stay above 1.2300, the greater chance of a bottom followed by a strong move upwards. Jobless claims and the ISM non-manufacturing reports are scheduled for release this morning but the focus will be on non-farm payrolls.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+USD
-AUD
-CHF
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +USD
-AUD, -CAD, -CHF, -JPY
mildly +GBP, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2325, Stop at 1.2297, Target 1.2353
2. Buy USDCHF at .9335, Stop at .9307, Target .9363
3. Buy EURUSD at 1.3436, Stop at 1.2408, Target 1.2464

*EURCAD closed for +21 and NZDUSD for -6

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 01.31.2018 – USDCHF, EURJPY, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning but thanks to President Trump who did not cause any major disruptions to the market, the sell-off is modest. High beta currencies continue to perform well with the New Zealand dollar leading the gains. There’s no specific explanation for the 1% jump outside of AUD/NZD selling after softer Australian CPI. Euro is trading above 1.2450 thanks to stronger German employment numbers and while GBP is also trading higher, it lags behind following a report that the EU rejected the city of London’s post Brexit deal for financial services. The Canadian dollar is trading firmly ahead of GDP but all eyes are on the FOMC today. It will be Yellen’s last and while the greenback is on its back foot, the currency’s slide should be limited by the prospect of a more hawkish outlook. Beware of month-end flows and the upcoming ADP and Chicago PMI reports.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-JPY
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

+EUR
-JPY, -CHF
mildly +USD, +AUD, +NZD
mildly -GBP
neutral CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy USDCHF at .9330, Stop at .9302, Target .9358
2. Buy EURJPY 135.47 at 135.19, Target 135.75
3. Buy EURGBP at .8795, Stop at .8767, Target .8823

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 01.30.2018 – USDJPY, EURCAD, EURGBP, AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

If the price action in the FX market on Monday can be characterized by consolidation, the last 12 hours is best described by the word volatility. The dollar rallied hard during the Asian trading session into Europe but collapsed sharply after the London open. It is trading heavily as the NY session begins but trying to recover its losses as pairs like EUR/USD appear to be topping while USDJPY and USDCAD appear to be bottoming. There’s been zero fundamental catalyst but for the past few weeks its lived up to its title of Turnaround Tuesday. We’re also nearing the end of the month and after some very strong moves in currencies, portfolio rebalancing could be affecting FX trade. Eurozone data was mostly in line with expectations with the EZ economy expanding by 0.6% in Q4. UK mortgage data was slightly weaker. Consumer confidence and house prices are scheduled for release this morning but the main focus will be this evening’s State of the Union Address by President Trump -- traders may look to unwind positions ahead of this big event.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP
+USD
-AUD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +GBP
-AUD, -CAD, -NZD
mildly +EUR, +JPY (+USDJPY)
neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell AUDJPY at 87.98, Stop at 88.26, Target 87.70
2. Sell EURGBP at .8803, Stop at .8831, Target .8875
3. Buy USDJPY at 108.64, Stop at 108.37, Target 108.92
4. Sell AUDJPY at 87.98, Stop at 88.26, Target 87.70

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT