Today’s Trades 06.15.2018 EURGBP, CHFJPY, EURJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

At first glance, it appears that the U.S. dollar is under pressure against all of the major currencies as investors wait for Trump’s list of tariffs on China. However on an intraday basis, USD/JPY is holding onto its gains into the NY open and trying to edge slightly higher. With that in mind, a trade war is bad for everyone and negative for risk appetite so its difficult to imagine that we’ll see significant rallies in currencies today. Canada has the largest decline in 10 year yields which explains why CAD is also the weakest currency but after having breached 1.3150, the pair is due for a correction. EUR is struggling to recapture 1.16 and took hit from reports that Angela Merkel’s government is at the brink as its coalition partner plans to end their alliance. While the currency recovered its initial losses this development should limit the recovery in EUR/USD. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are under pressure with NZD leading the slide after weaker manufacturing PMI numbers. The Yen seems to be unfazed by the Bank of Japan’s lowered CPI assessment. The U.S.’ Empire State manufacturing survey and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report are scheduled for release today but the main focus will be on China tariffs. One of my strongest views today is GBP outperformance.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-CHF
+CAD
+GBP

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +USD, +CAD
-EUR, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD
mildly +JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURGBP at .8730, Stop at .8758, Target .8702
2. Sell CHFJPY at 110.83, Stop at 111.11, target 110.55
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1589, Stop at 1.1617, Target 1.1561
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3140, Stop at 1.3168, Target 1.3112

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.11.2018 USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The most notable move in the FX markets this morning is in USD/JPY which is testing 110 after having traded as low as 109.25 at the start of the Asia session. There are no U.S. economic reports released today but the dollar is propped by the prospect of a Fed rate hike this week and higher yields. The weakest currency is the Canadian dollar which was hit hard by Trump’s attitude at G7, attack on Trudeau and Canada. Investors are still reeling from Friday’s softer Canadian employment report. The British pound is also under pressure following a series of softer economic reports -- the trade deficit widened and industrial production declined. AUD and NZD are flat but the slide in European currencies and the bid for the USD suggests that these currencies will turn lower during the NY session. The European Central Bank also has a policy meeting this week and while the positive momentum in EUR is fading this morning, we think buyers will swoop ahead of the rate decision.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-GBP
-CAD
-JPY
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-GBP, -CAD, -JPY, -CHF
mildly -AUD and -NZD
neutral EUR

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2990, Stop at 1.2962, Target 1.3018
2. Buy USDJPY at 110.01, Stop at 109.73, Target 110.29
3. Buy USDCHF at .9868, Stop at .9840, Target .9896
4. Sell GBPUSD at 1.3353, Stop at 1.3381, Target 1.3325

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.06.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, NZDCAD, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

All of the major currencies are trading higher this morning with EUR/USD above 1.1750, USD/JPY above 110 and GBP/USD above 1.34. Euro is benefitting from ECB comments relating to an earlier taper -- a view that we have emphasized after the 9 cent drop in the euro. Buyers continue to snap up USD/JPY ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Australian dollar also erased yesterday’s losses after a much stronger than expected GDP report. Risk ON is helping to take CAD and NZD higher as well and its no surprise to see the CHF and JPY underperform in a positive market environment like today. Yields are up across the board and equity futures point to a positive open. The Canadian dollar is in playwith trade balance and IVEY PMI reports scheduled for release -- the Bank of Canada’s optimism suggests that we could see firmer numbers. U.S. trade on the other hand could fall short of expectations given the strength of the dollar last month and the drop in the manufacturing ISM report.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+AUD
+CAD
-CHF
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +AUD, +CAD
-CHF, -JPY
mildly +GBP, -USD (but +USDJPY)
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8760, Stop at .8732, Target .8788
2. Sell NZDCAD at .9092, Stop at .9120, target .9064
3. Buy EURUSD at 1.1765, Stop at 1.1737, Target 1.1793
4. Buy EURJPY at 129.65, Stop at 129.37, Target 129.93

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USDCAD +28
EURJPY +28
EURAUD
AUDUSD

Today’s Trades 06.05.2018 – USDCAD, EURJPY, EURAUD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

At the start of the North American trading session, there has yet to be any little consistency in the U.S. dollar’s performance but as the session progresses, we should start to see some moves especially with US yields falling. The USD should slip against JPY and GBP, which is benefitting from very strong data. Sterling is the best performing currency this morning thanks to a hotter PMI services report that has lifted the pair across the board. It should only be a matter of time before 1.3400 is broken. The other currencies are struggling with AUD and CAD leading the slide. AUD declined after the RBA rate decision because policymakers emphasized the need for unchanged policy to spur growth and inflation. They also expressed concerns about low inflation and US-China trade tensions. CAD is being hit by the same trade concerns. EUR is hampered by softer data -- PMI services was revised lower and retail sales came in much weaker than expected. The U.S. non-manufacturing ISM report is the main focus today in the NY session and given the strength of NFPs, the risk is to the upside for the release.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-AUD
-CAD
+GBP
+CHF

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +CHF, +JPY
-USD, -AUD, -CAD
mildly -EUR and -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Bought USDCAD at 1.2975, Stop at 1.2947, Target 1.3000
2. Sell EURJPY at 128.24, Stop at 128.52, Target 127.96
3. Buy EURAUD at 1.5337, Stop at 1.5309, Target 1.5365

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 06.04.2018 – USDJPY, CADCHF, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Recoveries at the end of last week carried over to this new trading week with the Australian dollar leading the gains. AUD is up more than 1% on the back of stronger retail sales data, lifting the New Zealand dollar with it. Profit taking on long US dollar positions also helped euro shrug off softer PPI. Today’s U.S. factory orders and durable goods report are not expected to have a significant impact on the greenback. With stocks pointing higher and yields edging upwards, there’s an appetite for risk that should benefit the yen crosses. We also see a further near term pullback in USD/CAD.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
+EUR
+GBP
+AUD
+NZD
+CAD
+JPY

*Trading Biases*

-USD
+EUR, +GBP, +AUD, +NZD, +CAD, +JPY, +CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell CADCHF at .7618, Stop at .7646, Target .7590
2. Sell USDJPY at 109.54, Stop ta 109.82, Target 109.26
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.6646, Stop at 1.6674, Target 1.6618

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

GBPCHF -11
EURJPY -5

Today’s Trades 05.31.2018 – EURJPY, AUDCHF

Swing

*IMPORTANT* -- Trade Copy MT4 not working this morning. Not sure when it will be up so I’m only making soft calls today, you can put the trades in your own account manually.

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading slightly lower against all of the major currencies this morning but the greenback is trying to claw back. With that in mind, we are worried that the personal income and spending numbers scheduled for release today will fall short of expectations because of last month’s softer retail sales and wage growth. Although EUR/USD broke through 1.17 on the back of stronger EZ inflation data and a decline in Italian yields, it is backing off this key level. Some of the recent developments in Italy have brought reprieve to the markets but the exemption of sanctions for EU and Canada expires on Friday. Despite mixed data, sterling is the best performing currency. The Swiss Franc is also very strong thanks to better than expected Q1 GDP and retail sales growth. AUD and NZD are consolidating after yesterday’s gains while CAD extends higher. Like the greenback, the Canadian dollar is also in focus today with March and Q1 GDP numbers due for release.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-EUR
+GBP
+JPY
+CHF
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -AUD, -NZD
+GBP, JPY, +CHF
Neutral CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURJPY at market now 127.14, Stop 127.42, Target 126.95
2. Sell AUDCHF at .7465, Stop at .7493, Target .7445

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.30.2018 – EURJPY, EURNZD, AUDCHF

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

I’m back in markets this morning but only trading #2 today and Thursday since we’ll be live trading non-farm payrolls on Friday. Although the U.S. dollar has been very strong over the past few weeks, its pulling back with EUR, NZD and AUD leading the gains. EUR is up thanks to back to back improvements in EZ data. German retail sales came in much stronger than expected, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% from 5.3% and EZ economic confidence increased in the month of May. Is this enough for EUR/USD to bottom? Probably not with confidence votes in Spain and Italy at the end of the week but it is experiencing its strongest rally in nearly 3 weeks today which could continue in the North American session. This is particularly impressive considering that US Treasury rates are up sharply this morning, providing support for the dollar. The main catalyst for AUD and NZD strength is USD weakness because Australian and New Zealand housing data fell short of expectations overnight. Looking ahead, the US and Canadian dollars are in play this morning with ADP, revisions to US GDP and the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement on the calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-JPY
+NZD
+AUD
-GBP

*Trading Biases*

-USD (except vs. JPY)
+EUR, +NZD, +CHF, +AUD
-JPY, -GBP
Mildly +CAD in early NY trade

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURJPY at 126.39, Stop at 126.11, Target 126.67
2. Buy AUDCHF at .7463, Stop at .7435, Target .7491
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.6713, Stop at 1.6741, Target 1.6685

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.25.2018 – EURUSD, USDCAD, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar higher across the board this morning as ten year Treasury yields trade above 3%. With no U.S. economic reports on the calendar, the dollar will take its cue from yields which are likely to volatile during the NY trading session as investors decide whether U.S. rates should stay above or below this key level. All of the major currencies are hit by the dollar strength but an ECB meeting on the calendar tomorrow leaved the euro is particularly vulnerable. With that in mind, the worst performing currencies this morning and the comm dollars which extended their losses on the back of falling commodity prices. Sterling and the Japanese Yen are the most resilient and that’s likely to remain the case as USD/JPY looks at a slow climb upwards. Stock futures are signaling a lower open that could add pressure on high beta currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+JPY (but not vs USD)
-EUR
-CAD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -CAD, -CHF,
mildly +GBP, +AUD, +JPY on relative basis
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2864, Stop at 1.2836, Target 1.2892
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2202, Stop at 1.2230, Target 1.2174
3. Sell EURGBP at .8740, Stop at .8768, Target .8712

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.24.2018 – EURUSD, AUDCAD, AUDJPY, GBPJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After yesterday’s sharp gains, today’s moves can be best described as consolidation. The dollar is holding firm but many of the major currencies are positioning for a relief rally. Whether that happens or not will determined by Treasury yields, which are pulling back slightly at the start of the NY session. So far, 10 year rates have yet to breach 3% which is the key level to watch. Euro fell on the back of a weaker German IFO report but recovered all of its losses after bouncing off 1.22. Sterling found a bid from stronger fiscal finances but GBPUSD needs to rise above 1.3965 for the positive momentum to accelerate. There’s no specific explanation for why the New Zealand dollar is the weakest currency but AUD and CAD are vulnerable to short covering if U.S. yields fail to extend higher today. For the U.S., new home sales, consumer confidence and the CaseShiller house price index are scheduled for release. While new home sales could benefit from yesterday’s existing home sales jump, confidence could falter as geopolitical tensions in April rattle the markets.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +AUD, +NZD, +CHF
-JPY
neutral CAD, USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDCAD at .9770, Target .9742, Target .9798
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.2214, stop at 1.2186, Target 1.2242
3. Buy AUDJPY at 82.78, Stop at .82.50, Target 83.06
4. Buy GBPJPY at 151.83, Stop at 151.55, Target 152.11

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.23.2018 – USDCHF, AUDJPY, CADJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is starting the new week with a fresh round of gains as the greenback is trading against all of the major currencies. The main catalyst is the 10 year Treasury yield which is hovering just under 3%. There are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today but last week’s momentum is carrying over to this morning’s trade. The Japanese Yen is the weakest currency followed by the euro which shrugged off upward revisions to EZ PMIs. The commodity currencies are also up across the board although the loonie is the most resilient as oil prices stabilize. Its Monday, so its difficult to say whether there will be continuation after these strong moves but minimally USD/JPY looks like its headed towards 108.50. GBP/USD could test 1.39 but UK yields are up quite a bit this morning as well.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CHF
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CHF
-GBP, -AUD, -NZD, -JPY
mildly -EUR, +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDJPY at 82.70, Stop at 82.42, Target 82.98
2. Buy CADJPY at 84.60, Stop at 84.32, Target 84.88
3. Sell USDCHF at .9755, Stop at .9783, Target .9727
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.2780, Stop at 1.2808, target 1.2752

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.20.2018 – EURUSD, GBPUSD AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning. There are no U.S. economic reports scheduled for release so the sustainability of the rally hinges upon the move in Treasury yields and stocks. Both are flat this morning so there’s no clear indication of continuation but the day is new and anything can happen. With Canadian retail sales and consumer prices on the calendar, the main focus this morning will be on USD/CAD, which is flat. We are negative on the data but 1.27 is an important resistance level for USD/CAD. EUR/USD broke down overnight but is holding 1.23 for the time being. GBP/USD extended its slide and is vulnerable to additional weakness with UK yields falling sharply. AUD and NZD are also under pressure but after extended declines, both currencies are hovering above key support level.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CHF
+USD, +JPY
neutral AUD, CAD, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURUSD at 1.2302, stop 1.2330, Target 1.2274
2. Sell AUDJPY at 82.82, Stop at 83.10, Target 82.54
3. Sell GBPUSD at 1.4065, Stop at 1.4093, Target 1.4037

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT