Today’s Trades 04.25.2018 – EURUSD, USDCAD, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar higher across the board this morning as ten year Treasury yields trade above 3%. With no U.S. economic reports on the calendar, the dollar will take its cue from yields which are likely to volatile during the NY trading session as investors decide whether U.S. rates should stay above or below this key level. All of the major currencies are hit by the dollar strength but an ECB meeting on the calendar tomorrow leaved the euro is particularly vulnerable. With that in mind, the worst performing currencies this morning and the comm dollars which extended their losses on the back of falling commodity prices. Sterling and the Japanese Yen are the most resilient and that’s likely to remain the case as USD/JPY looks at a slow climb upwards. Stock futures are signaling a lower open that could add pressure on high beta currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+JPY (but not vs USD)
-EUR
-CAD
-CHF

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -CAD, -CHF,
mildly +GBP, +AUD, +JPY on relative basis
neutral NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.2864, Stop at 1.2836, Target 1.2892
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2202, Stop at 1.2230, Target 1.2174
3. Sell EURGBP at .8740, Stop at .8768, Target .8712

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.24.2018 – EURUSD, AUDCAD, AUDJPY, GBPJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

After yesterday’s sharp gains, today’s moves can be best described as consolidation. The dollar is holding firm but many of the major currencies are positioning for a relief rally. Whether that happens or not will determined by Treasury yields, which are pulling back slightly at the start of the NY session. So far, 10 year rates have yet to breach 3% which is the key level to watch. Euro fell on the back of a weaker German IFO report but recovered all of its losses after bouncing off 1.22. Sterling found a bid from stronger fiscal finances but GBPUSD needs to rise above 1.3965 for the positive momentum to accelerate. There’s no specific explanation for why the New Zealand dollar is the weakest currency but AUD and CAD are vulnerable to short covering if U.S. yields fail to extend higher today. For the U.S., new home sales, consumer confidence and the CaseShiller house price index are scheduled for release. While new home sales could benefit from yesterday’s existing home sales jump, confidence could falter as geopolitical tensions in April rattle the markets.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+GBP
+AUD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +GBP, +AUD, +NZD, +CHF
-JPY
neutral CAD, USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDCAD at .9770, Target .9742, Target .9798
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.2214, stop at 1.2186, Target 1.2242
3. Buy AUDJPY at 82.78, Stop at .82.50, Target 83.06
4. Buy GBPJPY at 151.83, Stop at 151.55, Target 152.11

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.23.2018 – USDCHF, AUDJPY, CADJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is starting the new week with a fresh round of gains as the greenback is trading against all of the major currencies. The main catalyst is the 10 year Treasury yield which is hovering just under 3%. There are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today but last week’s momentum is carrying over to this morning’s trade. The Japanese Yen is the weakest currency followed by the euro which shrugged off upward revisions to EZ PMIs. The commodity currencies are also up across the board although the loonie is the most resilient as oil prices stabilize. Its Monday, so its difficult to say whether there will be continuation after these strong moves but minimally USD/JPY looks like its headed towards 108.50. GBP/USD could test 1.39 but UK yields are up quite a bit this morning as well.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CHF
-GBP
-JPY
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CHF
-GBP, -AUD, -NZD, -JPY
mildly -EUR, +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy AUDJPY at 82.70, Stop at 82.42, Target 82.98
2. Buy CADJPY at 84.60, Stop at 84.32, Target 84.88
3. Sell USDCHF at .9755, Stop at .9783, Target .9727
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.2780, Stop at 1.2808, target 1.2752

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.20.2018 – EURUSD, GBPUSD AUDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning. There are no U.S. economic reports scheduled for release so the sustainability of the rally hinges upon the move in Treasury yields and stocks. Both are flat this morning so there’s no clear indication of continuation but the day is new and anything can happen. With Canadian retail sales and consumer prices on the calendar, the main focus this morning will be on USD/CAD, which is flat. We are negative on the data but 1.27 is an important resistance level for USD/CAD. EUR/USD broke down overnight but is holding 1.23 for the time being. GBP/USD extended its slide and is vulnerable to additional weakness with UK yields falling sharply. AUD and NZD are also under pressure but after extended declines, both currencies are hovering above key support level.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD

*Trading Biases*

-EUR, -GBP, -CHF
+USD, +JPY
neutral AUD, CAD, NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell EURUSD at 1.2302, stop 1.2330, Target 1.2274
2. Sell AUDJPY at 82.82, Stop at 83.10, Target 82.54
3. Sell GBPUSD at 1.4065, Stop at 1.4093, Target 1.4037

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Kathy’s Easy to Follow Trade – Close USDCAD at 1.26006

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

With no major U.S. economic reports on today’s calendar, there’s not much consistency in the performance of the dollar. The greenback is trading higher versus the Yen, euro and Australian dollar but is lower against sterling, the loonie and New Zealand dollar. What’s interesting about the overnight moves and this morning’s flow is that its counter to data. AUD for example is up despite softer employment numbers while NZD is down despite stronger CPI. GBP completely U-turned after selling off on the back of disappointing retail sales and CAD is stronger despite yesterday’s dovish Bank of Canada comments. The only explanation are yields -- UK and German rates are up sharply this morning, more so than Treasury yields. EURO remains strong and has its eye on 1.24.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+USD
-JPY
+CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +USD, +CAD, +CHF
-JPY, -AUD, -NZD,
mildly -GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDCAD at .9826, Stop at .9854, Target .9798
2. Sell AUDUSD at .7791, Stop at .7819, Target .7763
3. Buy CADJPY at 85.21, Stop at .8493, Target 85.49
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.2373, Stop at 1.2345, Target 1.2401

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.18.2018 – EURJPY, GBPCHF, EURAUD, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning as investors reward President Trump’s progress in talks with North Korea. He confirmed that CIA Chief Mike Pompeo met with Kim Jong Un in North Korea last week, paving the way for an official conversation between Trump and Kim. The dollar should be able to hold onto its gains with the Fed’s beige Book scheduled for release this afternoon, U.S. bond yields moving higher and Dow futures pointing to a positive open. The weakest currency is sterling which was hit by another round of softer data. UK CPI growth slowed to 0.1% in the month of March against expectations for 0.3% rise causing year over year growth to slow to 2.5% from 2.7%. Sterling is vulnerable to a deeper correction following softer wages yesterday. The strongest currency is the euro which refuses to fall in lockstep with its peers partly because of Iran’s decision to stop using dollars in its transactions -- a move that other nations could follow. The biggest event risk today is the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy announcement -- no changes are expected but recent data improvements could encourage optimism.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-GBP
+USD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +USD
-GBP, -JPY, -AUD, -NZD
mildly +CHF, +CAD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell NZDJPY at .7841, Stop at .7868, Target .7812 (edited)
2. Buy EURAUD aat 1.5950, Stop at 1.5922, Target 1.5978
3. Sold GBPCHF at 1.3753, Stop at 1.3781, Target at 1.3725
4. Bought EURJPY at 132.71, Stop at 132.43, Target 132.99

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.17.2018 – EURUSD, EURGBP, CADJPY, NZDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

Most of the major currencies are trading lower against the U.S. dollar this morning on the back of softer data. The EUR was hit by a lower ZEW survey, GBP fell on the back of weaker earnings, AUD and NZD are pressured by lower industrial production and quarterly GDP growth in China. The U.S. and Canadian dollars are the only ones unaffected so far and the greenback shouldn’t be significantly impacted by this morning’s housing and industrial production reports. Canada has manufacturing sales and the loonie is holding onto its gains ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement. The weakest currency today is NZD followed by the Swiss Franc. With Dow futures pointing to a positive open and U.S. Treasury yields ticking slightly higher, today may be a day of pro rather than anti-risk that could see gains for USD/JPY.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-JPY
-GBP
+USD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CAD
-EUR, -JPY, -GBP, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy CADJPY at 85.24, stop at 84.96, Target 85.52
2. Sell EURUSD at 1.2368, Stop at 1.2396, Target 1.2340
3. Buy EURGBP at .8638, stop at .8610, Target .8662
4. Sell NZDCAD at .9220, Stop at .9248, Target .9192

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.12.2018 – GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The currency markets are eyeing geopolitical risks this morning as President Trump says an attack on Syria could happen very soon, or “not at all.” While this creates more confusion than clarity, investors are relieved that an announcement wasn’t made overnight. By hitting Syria, the President is taunting Russia and the greatest implication aside from military engagement, U.S. dollar weakness and risk aversion is higher oil prices. USD/CAD remains under pressure was investors eye the headlines for updates on Trump’s decision. Softer Eurozone industrial production makes the euro the weakest performing currency this morning. Sterling came back strongly after dropping below 1.4150. USD/JPY has moved to the top of its recent range on the back of higher bond yields and Dow futures, which are pointing to a positive open. AUD is flat while NZD continues to outperform. There are no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today so keep on the headlines and stocks.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+GBP
+CAD
+NZD
-EUR
-USD (but +USDJPY)

*Trading Biases*

+GBP, +CAD, +NZD
-EUR, -USD (except USDJPY), -AUD, -CHF, -JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell USDCAD at 1.2594, stop at 1.2623, Target 1.2563
2. Buy USDJPY at 107.13, Stop at 106.85, Target 107.41
3. Buy GBPUSD at 1.4185, stop at 1.4157, Target 1.4213

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.11.2018 – EURGBP, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning as investors wait for the next shoe to drop. With President Trump set to announce a response to the chemical attacks in Syria, ongoing trade tensions, the NAFTA meeting and the investigations in Russia / Trump’s lawyer, there’s significant headline risk today. U.S. CPI is expected to tip higher given stronger PPI and gas prices but the impact on the greenback may be limited. The FOMC minutes are also due later this afternoon. The best performing currencies this morning are the euro and Japanese Yen. Mario Draghi is speaking but so far there hasn’t been any significant headlines. We are also seeing some profit taking in the commodity currencies as European equities sell off and Dow futures point to a lower open. Global bond yields are down across the board which is adding pressure on USD, EUR and GBP.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-CAD
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF
-GBP, -CAD, -JPY, -AUD
mildly -NZD, -USD (trend is down but data could prop the buck)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8720, stop at .8692, Target .8748
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2612, Stop at 12584, Target 1.2640
3. Sell USDJPY at 106.90, Stop at 107.18, Target 106.62
4. Sell GBPUSD at 1.4189, Stop at 1.4217, Target 1.4161

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning as investors wait for the next shoe to drop. With President Trump set to announce a response to the chemical attacks in Syria, ongoing trade tensions, the NAFTA meeting and the investigations in Russia / Trump’s lawyer, there’s significant headline risk today. U.S. CPI is expected to tip higher given stronger PPI and gas prices but the impact on the greenback may be limited. The FOMC minutes are also due later this afternoon. The best performing currencies this morning are the euro and Japanese Yen. Mario Draghi is speaking but so far there hasn’t been any significant headlines. We are also seeing some profit taking in the commodity currencies as European equities sell off and Dow futures point to a lower open. Global bond yields are down across the board which is adding pressure on USD, EUR and GBP.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-CAD
+EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF
-GBP, -CAD, -JPY, -AUD
mildly -NZD, -USD (trend is down but data could prop the buck)

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURGBP at .8720, stop at .8692, Target .8748
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2612, Stop at 12584, Target 1.2640
3. Sell USDJPY at 106.90, Stop at 107.18, Target 106.62
4. Sell GBPUSD at 1.4189, Stop at 1.4217, Target 1.4161

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.10.2018 – USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It was no surprise that Chinese President Xi took the high road by refraining from escalating trade tensions with the U.S. during his speech last night. Instead he stressed China’s willingness to cooperate by saying they could lower trade tariffs on autos and tighten enforcement on intellectual property rights. In return, USD/JPY bounced back above 107 and risk currencies traded higher across the board led by gains in AUD and NZD. The U.S. dollar is still underperforming after the FBI raided the offices of Trump’s lawyer, putting the trail one step closer to the President. EUR/USD is testing the 50-day SMA for the second day in a row and and looks set to break it. Sterling is benefitting from positive BoE comments the Canadian dollar is finally moving lower on the prospect of a NAFTA deal. U.S. PPI and Canadian housing starts/permits are the only economic reports on today’s calendar.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-JPY
+CAD
+AUD
+EUR
+NZD
+USDJPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CAD, +AUD, +NZD
-JPY, -USD (except vs. USDJPY)
neutral CHF, GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDJPY at 107.07, Stop at 106.79, Target 107.35
2. Sell USDCAD at 1.2677, Stop at 1.2705, Target 1.2649
3. Buy AUDUSD at .7740, Stop at .7712, Target .7768

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 04.09.2018 – GBPCHF, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We’re starting the new trading week with stability. U.S. stock futures are pointing to a positive open after selling off sharply on Friday thanks in part to the recovery in Asian and European equities. Treasury yields are also pointing higher, supporting the rally in the greenback. The dollar is up against most of the major currencies with the exception of sterling and the New Zealand dollar. Investors still believe or at least hope that trade tensions between the U.S. and China amounts to nothing more than posturing as no sanctions have gone in effect and so far there hasn’t been further antagonism from China. The euro is under pressure from softer German trade data while the New Zealand dollar is benefitting from AUD/NZD, which has fallen to a 1 year low. Sterling on the other hand is up thanks to stronger house prices and a rise in Gilt yields. Keep an eye on the headlines as geopolitical risks remain the key focus -- we could get a NAFTA deal this week and increased tensions with China.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+GBP
-CHF
-EUR
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+USD,+GBP
-EUR, -CHF, -JPY
mildly -NZD
neutral CAD, AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCHF at .9606, Stop at .9578, Target .9634
2. Buy USDJPY at 107.13, Stop at 106.85, target 107.41
3. Buy GBPCHF at 1.3545, Stop at 1.3517, Target 1.3573
4. Sell EURNZD at 1.6843, Stop at 1.6871, Target 1.6815

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT