Archive for 2011 british pound forecast

FOMC, ECB, RBA Meetings: What is Priced in?

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia have monetary policy meetings scheduled this week and some investors expect these central banks to change monetary policy. Here’s what the market is pricing in according to interest rate futures. You can compare them with the Central Bank expectations back in September. [...]

ECB to Leave Rates Unchanged for Rest of the Yr? RBA to Cut?

Even though ECB President Trichet was quite clear last week in signaling that rate hikes are not over, based upon interest rate futures, investors are actually pricing in NO RATE HIKES for the rest of the year and into the first half of 2012.
Since the beginning of the year, the ECB insisted that [...]

July Rate Expectations: No Moves Expect for ECB in 2011

The latest economic developments have caused investors to push out their rate expectations for all of the major central banks. In May, the ECB, BoC and RBA were all expected to raise rates before the end of the year and now aside from the ECB no one is expected to tighten. Rate expectations [...]

CNBC Interview: Outlook for EUR and USD

I was on CNBC last night talking about the outlook for the euro and U.S. dollar. If you caught the live hit, you would have heard me talk about the EUR/USD and how the rally yesterday should not be mistaken for a turn in the EUR/USD. “The sovereign debt troubles still plague the currency”

Fed: Data Shows Mkt Pricing in Q2 Rate Hike?

It has been a while since I provided updated numbers for the market’s rate hike expectations and I will chalk it up to my travels! Rate expectations are always changing and a lot has happened over the past month. Its always important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are [...]

New BoE Member Broadbent: What’s His Story?

At the end of this month, the Bank of England will add a new member to their Monetary Policy Committee – Ben Broadbent. He will replacing Andrew Sentance who has voted for an interest rate hike since the beginning of the year. Sentance was the most hawkish member of the MPC, having just [...]

100bp of Tightening Priced in for ECB?! See Latest G7 Rate Hike Expectations

Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed – One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE – 50bp rate hike priced [...]

CNBC Interview: Outlook for GBP, JPY, AUD, NZD

I was on CNBC Asia last night talking about the outlook for the British pound, Japanese Yen, Australian and New Zealand dollars. Was a tough one considering that I had laryngitis for most of the day! Can you tell?

Chart: BoE Inflation Report Rarely a Nonevent for GBP

The Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report is one of the most important pieces of documents released by the central bank. The Inflation Report includes the central bank’s latest growth and inflation forecasts and frequently telegraphs their plans for monetary policy. Although the Monetary Policy Committee has not changed interest rates in nearly [...]

What is the Shadow BoE Monetary Policy Committee?

Since the beginning of the month, the British pound has staged a dramatic rally against the U.S. dollar on the belief that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates very soon. In slightly more than a month, the GBP/USD has rallied from a low of 1.54 to a high above 1.6250. [...]