Today’s Trades 07.23.2018 No Day Trades, But Ideas for Swing Trades

Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

We have no #2 trades this morning because Mondays are usually reversal and not flow days. Yet I still wanted to share my thoughts --

After selling off aggressively at the start of Asia, the U.S. dollar is off its lows heading into North American trade. Investors were caught wrong footed at the end of last week and when the markets opened on Sunday, dollar selling continued. With that in mind, we are watching yields closely as the early decline in 10 year rates suggests that there may not be much more to USD/JPY’s recovery. This is a big week for euro and while we lean towards EUR weakness, today’s rise in German yields could limit the slide in EUR/USD. None of the major currencies are seeing much action this morning but the Yen crosses are down across the board. We like buying Canadian dollars after Friday’s strong Canadian economic reports and the rise in oil.

Swing trades that I am eyeing include -USDCAD, -EURCAD, -AUDCAD and -EURGBP

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-USD
-AUD
+CAD
+GBP

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -AUD, -EUR
+CAD, +GBP, +JPY, +CHF
neutral NZD

Today’s Ideas

No Trades

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Today’s Trades 07.20.2018 AUDUSD, CHFJPY, EURAUD, USDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The NY morning starts with a series of damaging trade headlines. President Trump said he’s ready to put tariffs on ALL $505 billion of Chinese goods imported to the U.S. and the German Chancellor Merkel said the E.U. is ready to retaliate against any U.S. auto tariffs. Trade tensions are escalating and not easing causing the Chinese Yuan to fall further. Yuan weakness has been a big story this week and the ramifications will be significant for the region’s economy. But currencies did not have a big reaction to Trump’s latest threats and that could be because investors are growing numb to his antagonistic attitude. With that in mind, we still believe that AUD and NZD will underperform as a result of these latest comments. U.S. yields are also up today, supporting a rally in the U.S. dollar. European Stocks and Dow futures on the other hand have turned negative following the trade talk. The Canadian dollar will be in focus this morning with retail sales and CPI scheduled for release. The lack of U.S. economic reports means the greenback will be trading on headline risk.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
+CAD (pre-data)
+EUR
-AUD
-NZD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +EUR, +GBP, +CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -JPY
+CAD pre-data

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7361, Stop at .7389. Target .7333
2. Buy CHFJPY at 112.63, stop aa 112.35, Target 112.91
3. Buy EURAUD at 1.4820, Stop at 1.5792, Target 1.5848
4. Sell USDCAD at 1.3250, Stop at 1.3278, Target 1.3222

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Economic Data Calls for 7/20/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Jul 20, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. GE PPI (2:00 NY Time) -- Bearish EUR Potential for downside surprise given Weaker GE CPI and lower wholesale prices

2. EZ Current Account Balance (4:00 NY Time) -- Bearish EUR Potential for downside surprise given Weaker GE and FR current account data

3. CA Retail Sales and CPI (8:30 NY Time) -- Bullish CAD Potential for downside surprise given Stronger rise in price component of IVEY PMI and bounce in spending expected after pullback in May

Economic Data Calls for 7/19/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Jul 19, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. AU Employment Report (21:30 NY Time) -- Bullish AUD Potential for upside surprise given Services and manufacturing production increased

2. UK Retail Sales (4:30 NY Time) -- Bearish GBP Potential for downside surprise given Lower BRC Sales and continued decline in shop prices

3. US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (8:30 NY Time) -- Bullish USD Potential for upside surprise given Increase in Empire manufacturing

Today’s Trades 07.18.2018 EURJPY, NZDCAD, EURGBP, NZDUSD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is extending its gains following yesterday’s hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. On Day 2 of his Congressional testimony, investors expect the same sense of optimism. USD/JPY is hovering just under 113 and while another probe above that level seems imminent, we don’t expect a material extension as the second day of his semi-annual testimony is rarely as market moving as the first. However the Beige Book, scheduled for release in the afternoon should reinforce the dollar’s positive bias. Sterling is under the greatest pressure as inflation growth slows on a consumer and producer level. CPI also fell in the Eurozone causing EURUSD to eye a break of 1.16 and GBP/USD teasing a move below 1.30. With oil prices falling further this morning, USD/CAD will try to break 1.3250. Commodity currencies in general are under pressure and we expect this same underperformance today.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
-GBP
+USD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -GBP, -NZD, -CAD, -AUD, -JPY
Neutral CHF

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Short EURJPY at 131.26, stop at 131.54, Target 130.98
2. Buy NZDCAD at 8955, Stop at .8927, Target .8983
3. Buy EURGBP at .8912, Stop at .8884, Target .8940
4. Sell NZDUSD at .6757, Stop at .6785, Target .6729

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Economic Data Calls for 7/18/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Jul 18, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. EZ CPI (5:00 NY Time) No Trade -- No revisions are expected but if there are changes it will be market moving

2. UK CPI, RPI, PPI (4:30 NY Time) -- Bullish GBP Potential for upside surprise given Smaller decline in BRC shop prices, BoE is hawkish

3. US Housing Starts and Building Permits (8:30 NY Time) No Trade -- Higher interest rates should lead to weaker sales

4. US Fed Beige Book Release (14:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Likely to be positive but we do not trade reports

Today’s Trades 07.17.2018 EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDCHF, NZDJPY

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

It will be a big day in the FX market with Fed Chair Jay Powell testifying before Congress at 10AM NY time. From his prepared remarks we know that he’s optimistic about the U.S. economy but worried about trade tensions. The U.S. dollar is holding strong against the Yen ahead of the release and flat against other major currencies with the exception of the New Zealand dollar, which is up 0.63%. NZD soared on the back of stronger inflation data, taking out stops in the process. UK labor data was in line with expectations but slightly weaker than the previous month. Global bond yields are lower this morning, oil is below $70 a barrel and stocks are flat. The recent decline in oil leads us to believe that the loonie is due for a correction. We don’t expect much in the way of moves ahead of Powell’s speech but there could be some relative value plays.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
-AUD
-NZD
-CAD

*Trading Biases*

+EUR. +CHF
-AUD, -NZD, -CAD
Neutral GBP, USD, JPY

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy USDCAD at 1.3145, Stop at 1.3117, Target 1.3173
2. Sell AUDCHF at .7362, Stop at .7390, Target .7334
3. Sell NZDJPY at 76.70, Stop at 76.98, Target 76.42
4. Buy EURUSD at 1.1721, Stop at 1.1693, Target 1.1749

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Economic Data Calls for 7/17/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Jul 17, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. NZ CPI (18:45 NY Time) -- Bearish NZD -- Potential for downside surprise given Lower food prices and lower ANZ commodity prices

2. RBA July Meeting Minutes (21:30 NY Time) No Trade -- We do not trade reports

3. UK Labor Report (4:30 NY Time) -- Bullish GBP Potential for upside surprise given PMIs report very strong growth in manufacturing, service & construction jobs

Economic Data Calls for 7/16/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Jul 16, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. NZ Services PMI (18:30 NY Time) -- Bearish NZD Potential weakness given Weaker Mfg PMI

2. CH GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production (22:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Chinese data is very market and growth is likely to have slowed due to Yuan weakness and trade tensions

3. EZ Trade Balance (5:00 NY Time) -- Bearish EUR Potential weakness given Weaker German and French trade balance

4. US Empire Manufacturing and Retail Advance (8:30 NY Time) -- Bearish USD Potential weakness given Wage growth slowed and Redbook reports drop in retail sales