Today’s Trades 09.21.2018 EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, EURNZD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

We are looking at a quieter start to the NY session after a big day for currencies and equities. US stock futures are indicating another positive open which means that the rally in USD/JPY could continue. There are no major US economic reports scheduled for release today so risk appetite and trade headlines will determine FX flows. GBP is the weakest currency because UK borrowing was worse than expected in August. Euro is under pressure as well due to softer PMIs. Service sector activity accelerated but manufacturing activity was weak and it drove the overall EZ composite index lower. EUR/usD could fall to 1.1740. Canadian CPI and retail sales are the most important pieces of data on the calendar this morning and with USD/CAD consolidating above 1.2900 for the past 12 hours, we believe that the pair wants to rally after the sharp sell-off this week but of course that all depends on data. Most of the major currencies appear to be due for a pullback but NZD remains one of the strongest currencies.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+USD
-EUR
-CAD
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD, +CHF
-EUR, -CAD, -AUD, -JPY
mildly -GBP, +NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Sell AUDUSD at .7285, Stop at .7313, Target .7257
2. Buy USDCAD at 1.2916, Stop at 1.2888, Target 1.2944
3. Sell EURNZD at 1.7596, Stop at 1.7624, Target 1.7568
4. Sell EURUSD at 1.1764, Stop at 1.1792, Target 1.1736

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Economic Data Calls for 9/21/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Sept 21, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. GE and EZ PMI’s (3:30 and 4:00 NY Time) -- Bearish EUR -- Potential for downside surprise given Stronger ZEW offset by weaker German industrial production and factory orders

2. CA Retail Sales and CPI (8:30 NY Time) No Trade -- Price component of IVEY increased slightly but employment and wage growth weakened

Economic Data Calls for 9/20/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Sept 20, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. NZ GDP (18:45 NY Time) -- Bullish NZD -- Potential for upside surprise given Much stronger retail sales and trade

2. SNB Rate Decision (3:30 NY Time) No Trade -Rate decisions are very market moving but hard to predict

3. UK Retail Sales (4:30 NY Time) -- Bearish GBP -- Potential for downside surprise given Stronger wage growth but weaker BRC retail sales. Last month’s number was strong

4. US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook and Existing Home Sales (8:30 and 10:00 NY Time) -- No Trade -Drop in Empire Manufacturing offset by Increase in Housing Starts

Today’s Trades 09.19.2018 GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURCAD

Swing

Good morning/afternoon everyone!

Its a risk on day in FX with all of the majors currencies up from yesterday’s levels. Investors continue to be unfazed by the US-China trade war and based on the strength of the Canadian dollar, they are hopeful that with Canadian foreign minister Freeland back in Washington today, progress can finally be made. The best performing currency is the Australian dollar but the Swiss Franc is not far behind. The Swiss National Bank meets tomorrow and investors are unwinding their long CHF positions on the fear that the central bank will harden their criticism of the currency strength. EUR/CHF hit a 13 month low this month and after riding the reversal for +50 pips in USDCHF for a swing trade, we think there will be further profit taking on long CHF positions during the NY session. Sterling is also up strongly this morning on the back of solid inflation data so +GBPCHF could work too but its high vol. Consumer and producer prices accelerated this month, reinforcing the Bank of England’s optimism. The Japanese Yen is trading lower this morning despite the Bank of Japan’s rosy economic outlook. The BoJ left interest rates unchanged last night and said the economy is expanding moderately despite escalating trade tensions. The main focus today will be on US-Canada trade talks and any other trade related headlines as the US only has housing starts and building permits scheduled for release.

The MAIN THEMES I see today are

+USD
+CAD
+GBP
-CHF
-EUR
-JPY

Trading Biases

+USD, +CAD, +GBP, +NZD, +AUD
-EUR, -CHF, -JPY

Today’s Ideas

1. Sell EURCAD at 1.5138, Stop at 1.5166, Target 1.5110
2. Buy GBPUSD at 1.3183, Stop 1.3155, Target 1.3211
3. Buy USDJPY at 112.39, Stop at 112.11, Target 112.67
4. Buy USDCHF at .9675, Stop at .9647 Target .9695

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Economic Data Calls for 9/19/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Sept 19, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. BoJ Rate Decision (0:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Rate decisions are very market moving but hard to predict

2. UK CPI, RPI and PPI (4:30 NY Time) -- Bullish GBP Potential downside surprise given Rise in BRC Shop price index. Manufacturing and services PMIs report faster price growth

3. US Current Account Balance, Housing Starts and Building Permits (8:30 NY Time) No Trade -- Housing data is difficult to predict but rising interest rates isn’t good for real estate

Economic Data Calls for 9/14/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Sept 14, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. NZ Manufacturing PMI (18:30 NY Time) -- Bearish NZD -- Potential for downside surprise given Lower dairy prices should have kept activity depressed

2. CH Retail Sales and Industrial Production (22:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Chinese data is hard to predict but can be very market moving

3. EZ Trade Balance (5:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Weaker GE trade, stronger FR trade

4. US Retail Sales, Industrial and Manufacturing Production (8:30 and 9:15 NY Time) -- Bullish USD -- Potential for upside surprise given Gas prices declined in August. Redbook retail sales increased and earnings up

5. U. of Mich. Report (10:00 NY Time) -- Bearish USD -- Potential for downside surprise given Economic optimism index slips from 14 year high

Economic Data Calls for 9/13/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Sept 13, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. AU Employment Report (21:30 NY Time) No Trade -- Weaker employment growth in services, stronger employment in manufacturing

2. GE CPI (2:00 NY Time) No Trade -Revisions are difficult to predict but changes are market moving

3. BoE Rate Decision (7:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Rate decisions are best traded reactively

4. ECB Rate Decision (7:45 NY Time) No Trade -- Rate decisions are best traded reactively

5. US CPI (5:00 NY Time) -- Bearish USD -- Potential for downside surprise given Weaker than expected PPI Data