Economic Data Calls for 11/15/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Nov 15, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. AU Labor Report (19:30 NY Time) Bullish AUD -- Potential for upside surprise given Employment conditions improved in services & construction but deteriorated in manufacturing

2. UK Retail Sales (4:30 NY Time) Bearish GBP -- Potential for downside surprise given Lower shop prices, modest increase in retail sales

3. EZ Trade Balance (5:00 NY Time) Bullish EUR -- Potential for upside surprise given Stronger GE and french trade balance

4. US Retail Sales (8:30 NY Time) No Trade -- May be a miss as forecasts are high, Redbook retail sales increased slightly & wage growth slowed

Don’t be Fooled by the Pullback in the Dollar Because….

Kathy Lien

Don’t be fooled by the pullback in the U.S. dollar today because the greenback could still strengthen further before the end of the year. Nearly all of the major currencies rebounded because of local factors and not a shift in appetite for U.S. dollars or change in economic fundamentals. There’s been no data so far this week and stocks consolidated after yesterday’s slide. The strength of USD/JPY, which is hovering around 114 and near 1.5 year highs is a confirmation of the dollar’s dominance. To answer the question of whether the dollar will get stronger, we have revisit the 4 main reasons why its been rising this year.

4 main reasons why the dollar keeps getting stronger

1. Good Data
2. Rising Interest Rates
3. Equity Market Pressure
4. Trade Policy

Three out of four of these factors will still draw investors into the greenback.

Read more

Don’t be Fooled by the Pullback in the Dollar Because….

Kathy Lien

Don’t be fooled by the pullback in the U.S. dollar today because the greenback could still strengthen further before the end of the year. Nearly all of the major currencies rebounded because of local factors and not a shift in appetite for U.S. dollars or change in economic fundamentals. There’s been no data so far this week and stocks consolidated after yesterday’s slide. The strength of USD/JPY, which is hovering around 114 and near 1.5 year highs is a confirmation of the dollar’s dominance. To answer the question of whether the dollar will get stronger, we have revisit the 4 main reasons why its been rising this year.

4 main reasons why the dollar keeps getting stronger

1. Good Data
2. Rising Interest Rates
3. Equity Market Pressure
4. Trade Policy

Three out of four of these factors will still draw investors into the greenback.

Read more

Economic Data Calls for 11/14/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Nov 14, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. JN GDP (18:50 NY Time) No Trade -- Weaker trade and retail sales in Q3 but economists already forecasting softer data

2. CH Retail Sales and Industrial Production (21:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Chinese data can be difficult to predict but market moving

3. GE GDP (2:00 NY Time) Bearish EUR -- Potential for downside surprise given Retail sales & trade weakened in third quarter

4. UK CPI, RPI and PPI (4:30 NY Time) Bearish GBP -- Potential for downside surprise given Lower shop prices, also decline in prices in the manufacturing and construction sectors, mixed prices in services

5. EZ Industrial Production and GDP (5:00 NY Time) No Trade -- GE GDP comes out the same day but industrial production improved in Germany

6. US PPI (8:30 NY Time) No Trade -- PPI Increased but Gas prices plunged in Oct

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!* The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130. *The MAIN THEMES I see today are* +EUR +CHF -CAD -JPY *Trading Biases* +EUR, +CHF, +GBP, -CAD, -JPY mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD *Today’s Initial Trades* Here’s the summary – 1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912 2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275 3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559 4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most of the major currencies this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s brutal selling. Stock futures are up, helping to bolster pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. However as we begin the NY session, the decline in Treasury yields could also tip the scale and push USD/JPY lower. Yen crosses on the other hand will take their cue from stocks today. The currency most vulnerable to weakness is the Canadian dollar because oil prices are down more than 2% after President Trump tweeted that he hopes Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not cut oil production because he thinks oil prices should be much lower based on supply. Despite a softer Eurozone ZEW survey, EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250 on the hope that progress could be made on the Italian budget front. the expectations component of the ZEW surely also increased. The best performing currency this morning is sterling which is up on higher wages (despite a higher unemployment rate) and continued Brexit optimism. On the Brexit front, we are getting closer to a deal but with some counterproductive headlines, traders are still reluctant to overload sterling positions but when an announcement is made, we can almost be assured that there will be a strong followup rally. AUD and NZD are also up from yesterday but having risen strongly in Asian trade, they are mostly consolidating and even weakening slightly. We also have our eyes on the Swiss Franc which appears to be topping below 1.0130.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

+EUR
+CHF
-CAD
-JPY

*Trading Biases*

+EUR, +CHF, +GBP,
-CAD, -JPY
mildly +AUD, +NZD, -USD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

Here’s the summary --

1. Buy EURCAD at 1.4885, Stop at 1.4857, Target 1.4912
2. Buy EURUSD at 1.1247, Stop at 1.1219, Target 1.1275
3. Buy AUDCAD at .9531, Stop at .9503, target .9559
4. Sell AUDCHF at .7270, Stop at .7298, Target .7242

Economic Data Calls for 11/13/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Nov 13, 2016) — Good Luck Trading!

1. GE CPI (02:00 NY Time) -- No Trade -- If data is revised, it could be market moving, otherwise no impact If data is revised, it could be market moving, otherwise no impact

2. UK Labor Report (4:30 NY Time) Bearish GBP -- Potential for downside surprise given Manufacturing and services report weaker job growth

3. GE ZEW Survey (5:00 NY Time) Bullish EUR -- Potential for upside surprise given Stronger Industrial production & factory order

Weekly Forex Trading Calendar for 11.12.2018

Weekly Calendar Calls

We have just posted our weekly news trading calendar for the week of Nov 12 2018. You can download the pdf and excel file by clicking on the Read More Link. These are soft biases on economic data and not trades that we directly trade or track like BK Swing and News.

PDF version of calendar111218

Excel version of calendar111218

Economic Data Calls for 11/9/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Nov 9, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. UK Trade Balance, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, GDP (4:30 NY Time) No Trade -- Trade should be lower given weaker manufacturing PMI. For GDP, weaker retail sales is offset by stronger trade balance

2. US PPI Final Demand (8:30 NY Time) Bullish USD -- Potential for upside surprise given sharp rise in prices paid of US ISM manufacturing index

3. US U of. Mich. Report (10:00 NY Time) Bearish USD -- Potential for downside surprise given Sentiment likely to be hit by equity market volatility

Economic Data Calls for 11/8/18

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Nov 8, 2018) — Good Luck Trading!

1. CH Trade Balance (00:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Chinese data is hard to predict but very market moving

2. GE Trade and Current Account Balance (02:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Drop in PMI Manufacturing offset by Increases in Factory Orders and Industrial Production

3. US FOMC Rate Decision (14:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Rate decisions are best traded reactively