Economic Data Calls for 12/14/17

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Dec 14, 2017) — Good Luck Trading!

1. AU Employment Report (19:30 NY Time) Bullish AUD -- Potential for upside surprise given Stronger construction and manufacturing employment. Weaker services

2. CH Retail Sales and Industrial Production (21:00 NY Time) -- No Trade -- Chinese data can be market moving but hard to predict

3. SNB Rate Decision (3:30 NY Time) -- No Trade -- No changes expected from SNB, should not be very market moving

4. GE and EZ PMI’s (3:30 and 4:00 NY Time) Bearish EUR -- Potential for downside surprise given Weaker German industrial production and factory orders

5. UK Retail Sales (4:30 NY Time) Bullish GBP -- Potential for upside surprise given Stronger BRC retail sales, unchanged shop prices

6. BoE Rate Decision (7:00 NY Time) -- No Trade -- No changes expected but guidance could be market moving

7. ECB Rate Decision (7:45 NY Time) -- No Trade -- No changes expected but guidance could be market moving

8. Retail Sales Advance (8:30 NY Time) -- No Trade -- Redbook retail sales fell in Nov but average hourly earnings rise

oday’s Trades 12.13.2017 – EURGBP, EURUSD, AUDJPY, NZDCAD has been sent

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

While today is FOMC day the usual consolidation before the event risk could be thwarted by the CPI report due at 8:30 NY time. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates for the third time this year but their forward guidance could be limited. The greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies despite a modest increase in U.S. yields. Euro remains under pressure, GBP is up on the back of stronger wage gains while the commodity currencies consolidate. We think USD/CAD is prime for a pullback given its latest price action while AUD and NZD near key resistance.

We have our Wed webinar today and a LIVE FOMC trading session beginning at 1:45PM NY time (15 min before FOMC)

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+CAD
-USD
+GBP
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -EUR, -CHF
+CAD, +GBP, +JPY,
mildly -AUD, -NZD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell EURGBP at market now .8783, Stop at .8811, Target .8755
2. Short NZDCAD at .8928, Stop at .8956, Target .8900
3. Sell EURUSD at 1.1737, Stop at 1.1765, Target 1.1709
4. Sell AUDJPY at 85.72, Stop at 86.00, Target 85.44

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Economic Data Calls for 12/13/17

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Dec 13, 2017) — Good Luck Trading!

1. UK Employment Report (4:30 NY Time) -- No Trade -- Services reported weaker job growth, manufacturing reported stronger so no clear direction

2. EZ Industrial Production (5:00 NY Time) -- No Trade -- A Significantly weaker German IP offset by significantly stronger FR IP

3. US CPI (8:30 NY Time) Bullish USD -- Potential for upside surprise given stronger PPI data

4. FOMC Rate Decision (14:00 NY Time) -- No Trade -- Rate hike expected but unclear guidance

Economic Data Calls for 12/12/17

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Dec 12, 2017) — Good Luck Trading!

1. UK CPI, RPI and PPI (4:30 NY Time) -- Bullish GBP -- Potential for upside surprise given PMIs show rise in manufacturing and service sector prices. BRC shop prices unchanged

2. GE ZEW Survey (5:00 NY Time) -- No Trade – Investor sentiment is hard to predict and best traded reactively

3. US PPI Final Demand (8:30 NY Time) -- Bearish USD -- Potential for downside surprise given Weaker import and export prices

Today’s Trades 12.11.2017 – USDCHF, CADJPY, EURGBP

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading slightly lower against most of the major currencies this morning and the losses could accelerate if U.S. yields fall further from current levels. There are no major economic reports on the calendar but this is an exceptionally busy week with 4 central bank rate decisions and a host of other market moving releases, so we would not be surprised to see pre-positioning. The best performing currency is the New Zealand dollar which jumped over 1% on the selection of a new central bank governor. However the move is overdone and NZD fundamentals remain weak so we have chosen not to join this trade. 10 year UK yields are down more than 5bp this morning and GBP is flat. This misalignment leads us to believe that GBP will fall, catching up to the move in yields as the FX market realizes what the bond market already knows which is that the second round of Brexit negotiations could be tougher than the first.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-GBP
-USD
-CAD
+CHF
+NZD

*Trading Biases*

-USD, -GBP, -CAD,
+EUR, +CHF, +NZD, +JPY, +AUD

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Sell USDCHF at market now .9905, Stop at .9933, Target .9877
2. Sell CADJPY at market now 88.20, Stop at 88.48, Target 87.92
3. Buy EURGBP at .8813, Stop at .8785, Target .8841

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

Will EURUSD Break 1.17?

Will EURUSD Break 1.17?

Chart Of The Day

Will EURUSD Break 1.17?

The EUR/USD fell every day this past week despite generally healthy data. Although part of this could be attributed to the rise in the U.S. dollar, the single currency is also pressured by Germany’s political troubles and a dovish central bank. The last time the ECB met, they cut their asset purchase program but said rates would remain at current levels well past end of QE, which means October 2018. Despite improvements in the labor market, manufacturing and service sector activity, we don’t expect the central bank to change their views and a reminder of their dovish stance could extend the slide in EUR/USD below 1.17, or have little impact on the currency. Either way, we don’t expect the euro to rally on the back of the rate decision.

Technically, the weekly charts show that the next level of support for EUR/USD below 1.1750 is 1.1660 followed by the November low of 1.1550. If EUR/USD rises back above the 20-week SMA, then its probably headed back to 1.19

Economic Data Calls for 12/8/17

Weekly Calendar Calls

Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Dec 8, 2017) — Good Luck Trading!

1. CH Trade Balance (00:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Chinese trade data can be very market moving but hard to predict

2. GE Trade and Current Account Balance (2:00 NY Time) No Trade -- Stronger than expected factory orders offset by drop in industrial production

3. UK Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance (4:30 NY Time) Bullish GBP -- Potential for upside surprise given Rise in manufacturing PMI index

4. US NFP’s (8:30 NY Time) No Trade -- Revisions are difficult to predict

5. US U. of Mich Report (10:00 NY Time) Bullish USD -- Potential for upside surprise given IBD/TIPP index hits 8 month highs but Umich could be overshadowed by NFP

Today’s Trades 12.07.2017 – USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDCAD

Swing

*Good morning/afternoon everyone!*

The U.S. dollar is trading higher against all of the major currencies this morning despite a marginal pullback in U.S. yields. The commodity currencies are the worst performers with CAD extending its slide following yesterday’s Bank of Canada statement. The Australian dollar has slipped on the back of softer trade data. Sterling is the most resilient as investors hope for a Brexit deal. Time is running out for Prime Minister May and the pressure is on for the leader of the UK to strike a deal with the DUP and the EU. With the EU Summit slated for next week, it’s head Brexit negotiator has given Britain 48 hours to agree to a potential deal or risk freezing the talks for the rest of the year. Sterling bulls are optimistic and while we are skeptical of a deal, we see the possibility of GBP recovery today before some selling on Friday. As non-farm payrolls near, USD/JPY comes into play. The pair has found its way back above 112.50 but 113 remains formidable resistance. Jobless claims and the Challenger layoff report are due this morning and while these numbers may only have a limited impact on the greenback, jobs are on everyone’s minds. We expect the dollar to press higher today as other currencies underperform.

*The MAIN THEMES I see today are*

-EUR
+USD
-JPY
-AUD

*Trading Biases*

+USD
-EUR, -CHF, -AUD, -NZD, -JPY
neutral CAD (fundamentally positive but meeting resistance technically)
neutral GBP

*Today’s Initial Trades*

1. Buy EURJPY at market now 132.84, Stop at 132.56, Target 133.12
2. Sell AUDCAD at .9649, Stop at .9677, Target .9621
3. Bought USDJPY at 112.74, Stop 112.47, Target 113.02

Close ALL open day trades by 10:20AM NY / 15:20 GMT

USD/CAD to 1.29?

USD/CAD to 1.29?

Chart Of The Day

USD/CAD to 1.29?

To everyone’s surprise, the Bank of Canada completely dismissed the recent improvements in data, choosing instead to focus on moderating growth, considerable trade and geopolitical uncertainty and the ongoing slack in the labor market. For all of these reasons they felt the need for continued cautiousness on rate moves. Investors were hoping for a hint of optimism and unfortunately they got none of that from the BoC and now there could be further CAD weakness. Considering that the market was reluctant to take USD/CAD lower before the rate decision, the validation of their fears should drive USD/CAD higher. We also believe that tomorrow’s IVEY PMI report could see some weakness after the big jump last month.

Technically, USD/CAD is now trading back above the 20-day SMA, having held the 50-day SMA support. The pair could extend as high as 1.2900 with the 50-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 2016 to 2017 sell-off serving as strong support.