Archive for May, 2012

Chart: EURUSD and 10 Yr Spanish Yields

There’s been a lot of talk about Spanish 10 year bond yields rising to 7 percent. We’ve been at higher levels in 2011 but at that time the EUR/USD was trading much higher. 7 percent is a critical level because that is the rate that pushed Greece, Portugal and Ireland to beg for [...]

Talking with CNBC Asia about ECB and EUR

I was on CNBC Asia last week talking about how proactive the ECB will be in light of Europe’s sovereign debt troubles. Sorry for the late post!

Why Success Breeds Failure in Trading

My last night in London I was having dinner with David Aranzabal and Ashraf Laidi at a very posh restaurant in Mayfair (I was with Asharf after all) and conversation turned to stories about many wealthy clients that each one of encountered over the years that managed to blow up tens of millions of dollars [...]

Latest Central Bank Expectations: RBA to Cut 125bp?!

Here are the latest central bank rate cut/hike expectations. Nothing priced in for the Fed, BoE or ECB (though I expect the latter two to pull the trigger on more stimulus in the coming months).
RBA – Investors are pricing in 125bp of easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia by the end of [...]

BNN: USD, EUR, JPY Outlook

Was on the Business News Network talking about the outlook for the U.S. dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. Click on the image to access the video:

Pedal To the Metal

Last week I posted a Twitpic of New York city bus poster that had two pictures of the same face. On one side the face was completely battered on the other it was perfectly preserved. The tag line read, “Hit at 40 mph, Hit at 30 mph” emphasizing the point of adhering to the speed [...]

One Simple Rule to Control Your Daytrading Losses

I often drop in on the Elite Trader bulletin boards to see what traders are talking about and this week a thread titled “Why folks lose money daytrading ES” really caught my attention. The poster “gmst” discusses the finer points of trading the e-mini S&P contract, but his insights are just applicable to the FX [...]

The Secret To Beating The Market – Chase Price Not Peformance

Here is amazing fact. Peter Lynch the legendary head of the Magellan fund made 35% per year running money during his tenure, yet most of the retail clients of Fidelity lost money despite his amazing record. Why? Because most human beings are inveterate performance chasers. They buy when money managers are hot and sell when [...]

Does Sell in May, Go Away Apply to EUR?

There is a very old saying in the stock market that goes “Sell in May, and Go Away.” This pertains to the notion that investors should cash in on their investments this month and take the summer off because June, July, August and September have traditionally been some of the worst months in the equity [...]