Archive for April, 2011

Tricks To Help You Trade Part 1

The other day someone who works for a very obnoxious boss asked me for advice. I flippantly answered that there are only two choices when you work for a truly odious person — homicide or quiting. Although my remark was of course made in jest it contained a kernel of truth. The older I get [...]

Compare the April FOMC Statement

The Fed just released the April FOMC statement and I have highlighted all of the changes. As you can see, the only major change is their acknowledgment of inflationary pressures. Unfortunately they still believe the effects of higher prices will be transitory which means that rising prices are not enough to convince them [...]

BNN Interview: Outlook for U.S. Dollar and FOMC

I was on the Business News Network this afternoon talking about the Fed FOMC meeting and the outlook for the U.S. dollar, CAD, AUD and other pairs. Click on the image to access the video
Sorry for the Radio Silence lately but I have been working hard on my new presentations for Singapore – leaving [...]

Tough Love

Although all of us claim that we like constructive criticism, in reality we rarely like to hear the truth. After all who wants to be told that you are fat, or lazy or sloppy or disorganized or selfish or arrogant? Few people have the courage to tell us the truth to our face. Our natural [...]

Dead Inventory

A New York times article with Jay Bean the founder of an online marketing firm OrangeSoda caught my eye this week not only because I agreed with his observation that Groupon made a huge mistake in not taking the $6 Billion Google offer ( mark my words Groupon will lose out to Living Social), but [...]

Table: How the IMF Global Growth Forecasts Changed

Here’s a table on how the IMF’s Global Growth forecasts have changed according to their World Economic Outlook. As you can see, they downgraded their outlook for the U.S., Japan, U.K., Australia and New Zealand but upgraded their forecasts for the euro area, Switzerland and Canada. The IMF World Economic Outlook April Report

BNN Video: Outlook for CAD and Fed Policy

I was on the Business News Network this morning talking about the Canadian dollar, Fed QE Policy and inflation.
Click on the image to access the video:

The Weight of Our Convictions

Warren Buffet once said that “In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it’s a weighing machine.” What he meant is that ultimately, in the financial markets just as in real life, action talks and baloney walks. No matter how ridiculous, how illogical, how utterly insane prices become, they [...]

ECB Rate Decision and Impact on EUR

- Rates currently at 1.00%
- 25bp rate hike completely priced in for Thurs
- 50bp priced in by June
- 100bp priced in by end of year
The most anticipated event risk this week is the ECB’s monetary policy decision on Thursday and the euro has rallied strongly ahead of the announcement. For the first time in 2 [...]

How US Government Shutdown Could Affect the EURUSD and USDJPY

There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown. Republicans and Democrats in Washington continue to clash on budget negotiations, raising the risk of the first government shutdown since 1995 during the Clinton Administration. Congressional leaders are in deep discussions and a shutdown could be avoided, but [...]